Rise to the Top
A Look at Frequent Accident Issues for Balloonists
by Adam Magee, FAA Safety Team Representative & Co-founder/President of The Balloon Training Academy
“Expect the unexpected” has long been the gold standard in preparedness. Flight instructors preach planning as an effective accident prevention tool. When analyzing the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database on hot air balloon accidents, one theme becomes apparent: Hot air balloon accidents mostly arise from deficiencies in accident mitigation efforts. So it’s worth taking a fresh look at some of the preflight and inflight actions that show up as contributing factors in accidents. The goal is to offer a data-driven approach to aeronautical decision making and accident prevention.
Overestimating but Underperforming
When I work with a new balloon pilot, I often see a cognitive bias (officially called the Dunning-Kruger effect) in which people with low ability at a task overestimate that ability. Many fledgling balloonists are unable to recognize their lack of ability. Without this self-awareness, they cannot objectively evaluate their competence. After gaining certification, the new pilot quickly builds confidence during the first 100 hours. While confidence is at an all-time high, they have in fact climbed only to the peak of what I call “Mount Ignorance.” The new pilot then makes a series of mistakes and comes close to (if not all the way to) an accident or incident until they’ve reached the “Valley of Despair.” Assuming they continue flying, they now have the beginnings of appreciation for how much they don’t know. As the pilot works up the “Slope of Enlightenment,” competence begins to form and eventually they reach the “Plateau of Sustainability.”
Some pilots have multiple peaks and valleys, or never hit their plateau of sustainability. At every peak, the pilot must battle hazardous attitudes of machismo, invulnerability, anti-authority, and impulsivity. Resignation reigns in each valley. Bear in mind that the plateau of sustainability can be dangerous as complacency and the same hazardous attitudes found at peaks can be present in plateaus.
Consider this number: around 54-percent of all hot air balloon accidents involve pilots who qualify for the highest level of the Balloon Federation of America’s Pilot Achievement Award Program. This points to complacency and implies that the plateau of sustainability can be difficult, if not impossible, to achieve. When analyzing the NTSB database of hot air balloon accidents, the outside forces acting on the peaks and valleys, as well as a complacency factor, become apparent. The accident narratives shed light on the hazardous attitudes in play.
For example, the high-hour balloon pilot who decides to take off on a windy evening when other pilots decide not to fly is exhibiting the macho hazardous attitude. The accident narrative is full of an “I can do it!” attitude. In these instances, tell yourself that “taking chances is foolish” in order to catch your behavior. Listen to corrective action suggestions from crewmembers or other pilots. Difficult? Yes, but it could prevent an accident.
To combat the hazardous attitudes found in the peaks and valleys, take yourself through an “unawareness checklist” before each flight. To teach this concept, I start by explaining the mission of the FAA: to have the safest aerospace system in the world. The entire airman certification process, FAA Safety Team (FAASTeam), FAA Safety Briefing magazine, and everything else the FAA does are all aimed at fulfilling this mission. The FAA develops tools like the PAVE and IMSAFE checklists (and so much more) because they can help prevent accidents. The checklists keep pilots aware of items that can have a negative impact on the flight. A natural first step in accident prevention is to simply use the tools your tax dollars have helped create.
Another Tool You Can Use
Have you ever used a flight risk assessment tool (FRAT)? Going through PAVE and IMSAFE checklists in your head doesn’t take actual risk exposure into account. Our brains tend to compartmentalize individual hazard and fail to appreciate their cumulative effects. Even if it happens unconsciously, we may also allow personal desires to manipulate a risk assessment so we can meet personal goals. The best way to compensate for these inherent shortcomings is to take this task to paper. Putting everything on “paper” (even electronic paper) allows us to establish risk limits in an atmosphere free from the pressure of an impending flight. It also offers a perspective on the entire risk picture. Most importantly, it sets the stage for managing risk through proactive mitigation strategies that are documented.
Designs can vary, but FRATs generally ask a series of questions that help identify and quantify risk for a flight. The FAASTeam’s current FRAT tool (an automated spreadsheet) follows the PAVE checklist, covering questions on the Pilot, Aircraft, enVironment, and External pressures. For example, it may ask how much rest you’ve had, how much time you’ve had in the aircraft, and what the weather conditions are for your destination. Based on the answers you supply, a total risk score is calculated. If the score calculated is green — go fly! If it’s yellow — try to mitigate some of the higher scoring items. If it’s red — no-go!
Personal minimums refer to an individual pilot’s set of procedures, rules, criteria, and guidelines for deciding whether and under what conditions to operate (or continue operating) in the National Airspace System. Personal minimums should be set so as to provide a solid safety buffer between the pilot skills and aircraft capability required for the specific flight you want to make, and the pilot skills and aircraft capability available to you through training, experience, currency, proficiency and, in the case of the balloon, performance characteristics. Create your own personal minimums checklist and stick to it! For more, check out my other articles linked below.
Back to Basics
If you’re a certificated balloon pilot, it’s probably been a while since you’ve read through the Lighter-than-Air balloon private pilot Practical Test Standards (PTS) (Note: Airman Certification Standards for LTA are in development). But do you recall how it tests the applicants’ ability to pick a launch spot based on suitable landing areas downwind both in flight planning and launch site selection? The ability for a balloon to land at a location other than an airport is what makes balloons unique. It also makes balloon flight riskier. Contact with power lines is the number one fatal cause of balloon accidents.
Seventy-nine-percent of balloon accidents occur during the landing phase of flight. Further analysis reveals two major themes: lack of proficiency and impulsivity.
Pilot proficiency is important; many accidents involve pilots who are rusty or are flying an unfamiliar aircraft. Sometimes the pilot is flying an aircraft new to them and twice the size of the balloon they normally fly. We all know 14 CFR section 61.57 sets recent flight experience for carrying passengers, but does currency equate to proficiency? No! That’s where the WINGS Pilot Proficiency Program comes in. WINGS encourages pilots to obtain additional knowledge and flying skill with an authorized instructor. This additional instruction knocks the rust off for pilots who have not recently flown much. Consider that with hot air balloons, 48-percent of accidents involve pilots with 15 or fewer hours in the last 90 days.
When faced with a difficult situation in flight (e.g., changing weather conditions, missed landing spots, flying into congested areas, etc.) the accident narrative often points towards the impulsivity hazardous attitude. Pilots want to “do something quickly” to avoid an accident, but hastily executed actions often make the situation worse. Checklists are a great accident mitigation strategy; they help pilots combat impulsivity. When faced with a difficult situation, your checklist provides an opportunity to think and perform a double check. An often overlooked but very important checklist is for the passenger briefing. In many hot air balloon landing phase accidents, an inadequate passenger briefing has unnecessarily led to broken bones, and in one case, a fatality.
In Data We Trust
To “expect the unexpected” in hot air balloon accidents involves understanding the statistics behind accidents. Such data helps guide the FAA’s development of accident mitigation strategies and aeronautical decision making resources. Whether your craft is lighter or heavier than air, make it a habit to know these resources and make them a regular part of your flight planning.
Adam Magee is a commercial hot air balloon pilot/flight instructor, designated pilot examiner, FAA Safety Team (FAASTeam) Representative, and was named the 2019 District and Regional FAA CFI of the Year. He is co-founder/president of The Balloon Training Academy, a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization and industry member of the FAASTeam.
