Predicting the loss of preferred thermal habitats of fish and invertebrates to support future decisions regarding Marine Protected Areas: a case study
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are conservation tools that promote biodiversity by regulating human impacts.
However, because MPAs are fixed in space and, by design, difficult to change, climate change may challenge their long-term effectiveness.
Using projections of sea surface temperature under high and low greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, we predicted the Time of Emergence (ToE: year when temperatures will exceed a species’ tolerance) of 30 fish and invertebrate species in the Scotian Shelf-Bay of Fundy draft network of conservation areas.
Read this open access paper on the FACETS website.
Species that are typically found in cooler waters had earlier ToEs, particularly in southwesterly areas.
Under low emissions, 12.6% of these species were predicted to encounter temperatures above their tolerance throughout the network as a whole by 2100, cumulatively losing 20% of their preferred thermal habitat.
Under high emissions, 42% of species could be lost from the network, with the larger species group cumulatively losing 51% of preferred thermal habitat from these protected areas (by 2100).
These impacts are expected within the next 30–50 years in some southwestern areas.
These results can support decisions regarding site and network design (e.g., designation scheduling) to promote climate resilience, and regarding which species should be considered priorities for protection and monitoring (and for how long).
Read the paper — Climate change, species thermal emergence, and conservation design: a case study in the Canadian Northwest Atlantic by Shaylyn A. Lewis, Christine H. Stortini, Daniel G. Boyce, and Ryan R.E. Stanley.
