Army should be ready for a new Op BANNER … in London

Note: This is a troubling topic. Counter-arguments will be warmly received.

The attack on Charlie Hebdo is a reminder. Time will tell exactly who carried out the attack on Charlie Hebdo, but early indications are that it was two terrorists who were born and grew up in France (more home-grown terrorists). Pictures of French soldiers deployed to Paris are a chilling reminder of the British Army’s own past of internal security work … and are possibly foreshadowing as well.

The threat goes beyond a handful of terrorists. Ever since 9/11, politicians have been quick to argue that the threat to Western countries comes from a small number of terrorists. They have got this precisely wrong. However horrific terrorists attacks are — from “spectaculars” like 7/7 to the assassination of Theo van Gogh—they represent a relatively small loss of life that will not impact a state’s security over the long term*. The real threat comes from the tens of thousands of people who preach, support terrorists, engage in riots, and drive a wedge into the heart of our society.

Look no further than the Continent (Malmo and the Paris banlieues, for instance), where large riots by disenchanted immigrants are increasingly common. There are areas of Sweden—Sweden!—that are “no-go” for emergency services.

For better and for worse, the politically correct media describes these rioters as “youths”, and goes to great pains to avoid mentioning their religion. At one level, this is a good thing: Islam, in and of itself, could very well be irrelevant. But the reality is that there is a sizeable group of young, disenchanted people within our borders who have a distinct identity that is stronger than anything else our society has to offer. And whether you are progressive, and believe the root causes of this disenchantment must be addressed, or conservative, and believe immigration should be reduced and assimilation should be increased, you cannot deny this is a deepening problem.

Survey results are troubling. There do not seem to be any recent surveys of British Muslims’ opinions on violence, but what is available is chilling:

• A 2008 Centre for Social Cohesion survey of 600 Muslim students at 30 universities throughout Britain found that 32% believed killing in the name of religion is justified, and 40% want Muslims in the UK to be under Sharia law (up to 40% are undecided)
• A 2006 NOP Research poll classified 9% of British Muslims as hard-core Islamists
• A 2006 ICM poll found that 14% of British Muslims thought it was right to attack Danish embassies over the cartoons, while 4% thought it was right for al Qaeda to attack Western targets
• A 2007 Policy Exchange survey found that 7% of British Muslims admire al Qaeda, and 31% agree that Muslim conversion should be punishable by death

Research by the Pew Research Center indicates there are nearly 2.9M Muslims in the UK (4.6%), which will nearly double to 5.5M by 2030 (8.2%). If a very small minority of Muslims strongly support an issue (say, 5%), that still represents 145,000 Britons.

There is a big danger, of course, of conflating hard-core Islamism (which manifests itself as terrorism) with general disenchantment in Muslim communities (which sometimes manifests itself as rioting). But there is also a big danger of completely disconnecting them. If two parts of a single identity group have separate grievances against a society and its government, and both are comfortable resorting to violence, it’s not much of a stretch to imagine them combining forces.

We have form … so take a minute to really digest what happened in Op BANNER. The history of Ireland is long and contentious and does not need to be repeated here. For the purposes of this article, suffice it to say that the British Army initially deployed to Northern Ireland in 1969 to calm unrest and in particular to protect the Catholics. Soldiers were well received by the nationalists at first. For various reasons, that did not last.

In 1972, after the IRA detonated a series of bombs around Belfast, the Army launched Op MOTORMAN to break into “no-go” areas that were impassable to Army vehicles. The operation involved nearly 30 infantry battalions and armoured regiments. Several AVREs—what a layperson would call a tank—were transported by landing ship to take part.

Pause for a moment to reflect on that. Things got so bad the British Army had to use tanks in the UK.

At its height the British Army fought an intense guerilla war against a highly capable terrorist network. Threats ranged from riots and slingshots to car bombs, rocket-propelled grenades and .50-cal sniper rifles. Republican terrorists received funding, equipment and training from sources as diverse as the US, Libya, Eastern Europe, Spain (ETA) and Colombia (FARC).

And all of this happened in the UK.

There is a risk that The Troubles will be repeated on the mainland. The point is most assuredly not that there is anything fundamentally wrong with Islam, any more than The Troubles proved there was something inherently wrong with Catholocism or Protestantism. The point is also not that this future is pre-ordained. But we do need to be honest, and recognise similar underlying factors:

• A mix of real and perceived grievances (in this case, focused on issues both at home and abroad)
• Religious views that are strongly held by a small minority, who believe they are incompatible with those of other religions
• A more sizeable minority that are at least passively supportive
• Economic deprivation
• Segregation
• International sources of funding, equipment and training
• A history of armed action against the government and terrorism against civilians

In stark contrast to Northern Ireland, one could argue the current situation is more serious:

• No deep history of living together or assimilation
• Presence of battle-hardened terrorists from abroad
• No shared view in our society of the nature of the problem and its solutions

A repeat of The Troubles is not likely to happen. But the odds are not zero, and they are growing, so the British Army should be prepared. Unfortunately, security operations require manpower. Lots of it. And this challenge is coming at a time when the British Army is shrinking to its smallest size since Napoleonic times.