Operation MOW THE LAWN kicks off

There are many definitions of strategy but at its most basic it connects means with ends. We can be forgiven for not having a strategy in relation to ISIS because we have neither means nor ends to connect. Sending seven planes (six Tornadoes and a Rivet Joint) is perfunctory. Relative to our contributions in Iraq and Afghanistan it’s embarrassing, but this is where Labour and Conservative governments have left us. As the parliamentary motion makes clear (LINK), our objectives are essentially to support Iraqi and Kurdish security forces. In other words, while the end-state is not precisely defined, it won’t be up to us whether we reach it.

This is important. People are so blinded by not finding a SCUD missile with a nuclear warhead sitting on a TEL, fuelled up and pointed at London, that they forget one of the major reasons for invading Iraq in the first place was that the situation in 2003 was unsustainable. Sanctions were slipping. Coalition partners were going wobbly. Saddam Hussein was supporting terrorism and developing a turnkey WMD capability. Those who lament the invasion and blame our current situation on it fail to appreciate that the alternative is not 2003 Saddam Hussein (an intellectually lazy counter-factual), but quite possibly something altogether more sinister than what we have now.

In other words, things that can’t continue won’t.

Given the desultory performance of the Iraqi security forces, coalition air strikes are unlikely to turn the tide. Obama is equally unlikely to commit meaningful numbers of ground forces to Iraq. That leaves us emulating the IDF and moving the lawn for years to come.

Photo of Tornado used under OGL.