2020 Preview: New England Patriots
How will the Patriots move on after Tom Brady?
The 2020 NFL Season is almost upon us, and the Fantasy Life App Blog has you covered. We’ll be previewing each of the league’s 32-teams and predictions for the 2020 season daily beginning with the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs on Tuesday, August 4. Check back each day for a new team preview!
Fifteen seconds left with the ball placed at the Patriots one yard line. Titans up 14–13 as the Patriots offense trots onto the field. Everyone in Gillette Stadium is on the edge of their seat knowing that this could be Brady’s last drive as a Patriot. Does he have another miracle left in him?
Brady snaps the ball. Mike Vrabel, coach of the Titans, stares intensely at his Titans defense with his hands on his knees. Vrabel is hoping for just one more stop. Brady glances over the field and spots Mohammed Sanu over the middle of the field. Brady fires. The Titans are all over it. The ball gets tipped up into the air — a quarterback’s worst nightmare.
Safety Kevin Byard swoops in and attempts to make a game-winning interception. Byard focuses intently on the ball and picks it off at around the nine yard line. From there, only patches of grass stand between him and the end zone. Byard practically gallops into the end zone with his hands out in celebration instantaneously. It’s over. The Titans move on to the Divisional Round, but most importantly Brady’s era with the Patriots is officially over.
Off-season Changes
The off-season started for the Patriots with the unthinkable — Brady officially left the Patriots in free agency and opted for a fresh start in a warmer city in Tampa Bay. Without Brady under center in Foxboro, the Patriots were forced to bring in another quarterback. They decided to bring in former MVP Cam Newton to help extend their competing years. Cam Newton is an energetic quarterback completely loaded with talent. If Newton can stay on the field, there is no doubt he will be a force to be reckoned with.
The Patriots were also left with some tough financial decisions with many of their stars heading into free agency. This led players like LB Jamie Collins (Lions), DT Danny Shelton (Lions) LB Kyle Van Noy (Dolphins), and WR Phillip Dorsett (Seahawks) to all join new teams in free agency. Luckily, the Patriots were able to retain Pro Bowlers ST Matthew Slater and S Devin McCourty on their squad as well as OG Joe Thuney, which will help keep the winning DNA within the franchise.
Despite retaining some of their players from last season, the players the Patriots lost left some holes on their team. A lot of their attention became fixated on replacing the starters they had lost. This led them to sign some lesser names in order to potentially fill spots on their starting lineup. One of these players was Beau Allen, the defensive tackle from the Buccaneers these past two years. The Patriots got size in this 6’3” 327 pound beast; someone they hope can replace Danny Shelton’s interior presence for them. Another smaller name that the Patriots signed was safety Adrian Phillips, who was signed to replace Nate Ebner (now on the Giants). Phillips is a versatile player that can play multiple positions. He is also known for his special teams skills.
Two other names that the Patriots signed this off-season are Damiere Byrd, a speedy receiver who ran a 4.28 40, and OLB Brandon Copeland from the Jets, who adds depth to the Patriots’ linebacker group.
The last additions to the new look Patriots came in the draft. They traded out of the first round to draft safety Kyle Dugger (Lenoir-Rhyne) and outside linebacker Josh Uche (Michigan) in the second round. From there, the Patriots shocked everyone when spending two of their three third round picks on tight ends (Pick 91 Devin Asiasi and Pick 101 Dalton Keene).
These off-season changes aren’t going to significantly affect the Patriots as much as their opt-outs will, though. As of now, they lead the league with eight opt-outs. While, they might retain these players over the course of multiple years, they will have to play without the following players this season. These players include tackle Marcus Cannon, linebacker Dont’a Hightower, safety Patrick Chung, tight end Matt LaCosse and four others. The Patriots are going to feel the absence of these players on the field as their losses will show. This is especially true of Hightower, who has been a defensive rock and leader in their system for years now.
Fantasy Outlook
With Brady gone and Newton in, lots of Patriot players will be affected in fantasy football. James White, who has always been Brady’s go-to back in the receiving game, will be lucky to catch 70-plus balls for the third consecutive season. Instead, I see him more as a 50 to 60 catch guy with Newton. White pledges to be more of a leader in the locker room with Brady gone, but I still think finishing as an RB2 again in PPR for a guy who only received 67 carries last season is unlikely. Realistically, I now see James White as an RB3 in PPR formats next year. His pass-catching ability has made him surprisingly useful in PPR leagues despite limited carries.
If anything, Sony Michel is the running back on the Patriots that I can see most likely being an RB2 this season. Last year, he received 247 carries for 912 yards and seven touchdowns. The production wasn’t there as Michel only averaged 3.7 YPC last year. However, the volume was definitely there. My concern with Michel besides his productivity is that with Newton’s rushing tendencies, his volume and rushing touchdowns could decline this year. Michel’s opportunities might lessen, but it won’t prevent him from being the go-to running back on the Patriots. Despite potential concerns with Michel, I can see him having his first ever 1,000 yard rushing season in 2020. I predict 220 carries for 1,000 yards and seven rushing touchdowns this season.
Julian Edelman is one of the biggest unknowns in fantasy football at the moment. I have to wonder if he can put up big numbers without Brady. Last season, Edelman finished as the seventh-best fantasy WR in PPR. It was one of his best seasons to date. Overall, he produced 100 receptions for more than 1,100 yards and six touchdowns. This season, I think his lack of chemistry with Newton compared to Brady will affect him slightly. Edelman and Brady were close friends, so Edelman is going to have to adjust. I predict 850 receiving yards for Edelman along with seven touchdowns this season. These numbers could cause Edelman to shift from a WR1 to more of WR2 or WR3 in fantasy football.
With Edelman aging and already over 30 years old, the Patriots will have to rely on more than just Edelman in 2020 for receivers. Luckily, I think that N’Keal Harry will turn into something special for the Patriots. He was drafted in 2019 in the first round, which made him the second highest receiver picked. Harry was even drafted over the likes of receivers A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, and D.K. Metcalf, so the Patriots brought him in with huge expectations. Harry didn’t live up to those expectations in his rookie season as injuries kept him sidelined for most of the season. When he did get a chance to play, he had a hard time adapting to the NFL. The transition from Arizona State to the Patriots has slowed down Harry’s production. Don’t fear though! Another year to learn and master the playbook is all Harry needs to finally start producing big time numbers. I see him as a WR3 for fantasy football this season with a lot of potential for years to come!
2020 Outlook
Its feels like anything short of a Super Bowl run is a disappointment for Patriots fans. Fans have been fortunate enough to watch their team go from an underdog to a dynasty. They went from a team hardly talked about to the most talked about team in football. As a competitor, it is important to respect their dominance. Yes, the Patriots got caught in the deflate-gate, but doesn’t mean that they aren’t worthy of praise. Trust me, I am not a Patriots fan, but I respect the great franchise they have turned into.
For all the Patriots haters out there though, I have good news — the Patriots aren’t Super Bowl contenders this year. The 2020 Patriots will go 10–6 and end up finding a spot in the playoffs before losing in the Wild Card round. It could be an up-hill battle for them with a much less balanced team, but I believe Newton and Bill Belichick can find a way to make the playoffs. They have 19 consecutive winning seasons and have won the AFC East every year since and including 2003, but it will all be tested this season.
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