2022 College Football National Championship Odds
Some thoughts on the key contenders and one dark horse team that people are going to fall in love with.
The College Football season ended last night with Georgia winning its first title in four decades. Georgia’s players, coaches and fans will be celebrating this championship for years to come, but for the rest of us it’s never too early to look ahead to the 2022 season. FanDuel has posted the odds for next year’s championship so here are some quick thoughts on the notable contenders. If you see anything you like, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to take advantage of your $1,000 risk-free bet.
Georgia +200
The question for Georgia is can the impressive level at which they recruit help them restock their lineup to make another run at a title because the Dawgs are losing a lot, particularly on defense. Stars like Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean headline a laundry list of players leaving and Georgia is also losing defensive coordinator Dan Lanning who took the head coaching job at Oregon. Georgia is probably going to have to rely on its offense more than they’d like to in order to contend again and they don’t particularly like being aggressive on offense even though they do have a good amount of talent coming back on that side of the ball. Georgia starts the year against Oregon who is very good, but the Dawgs are better and it’s a de facto home game in Atlanta. The SEC schedule is manageable with road games at South Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Missouri.
Alabama +200
The Tide’s quest to repeat fell short, but in some ways this year’s team overachieved as it was expected by some smart college football people to be a bit of a re-tooling year. The tide are going to lose a few guys on offense like OT Evan Neal, Brian Robinson Jr, John Metchie and Jameson Williams and we saw how Alabama’s offense struggled without those last two guys, but it was lack of experience, not talent, that cost the Tide against Georgia on offense. They may dip their toe in the transfer portal for some receiver help like they did at at running back landing perhaps the best offensive player in the portal in former Georgia Tech running back Jahmyr Gibbs. The Alabama defense should be very good again led by the returning Will Anderson and the rich got richer adding LSU transfer Eli Ricks at Cornerback. The road schedule is a bit daunting with games at Texas and Arkansas early in the year and back-to-back trips to LSU and Ole Miss later in the year, but Alabama is Alabama and it would be a pretty big upset for any of those teams to topple the Tide.
Ohio State +800
There’s a lot of good news/bad news with the Buckeyes. The good news is that Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr showed in the Rose Bowl that they shouldn’t have trouble replacing Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson and of course CJ Stroud and TreVeyon Henderson are back. Ohio State also made perhaps the most significant coaching hire of this cycle by poaching defensive coordinator Jim Knowles away from Oklahoma State to help fix a Buckeyes defense that struggled mightily against good offenses in 2021. The bad news? The schedule is pretty tough. They open the season hosting Notre Dame. They have to go to Penn State and Michigan State AND play Wisconsin and Iowa in cross divisional games although both are in Columbus. It’s a brutal slate even though Ohio State will probably be favored in every game this coming Fall.
Clemson +1000
If Clemson is going to return to the elite tier of college football they simply have to get better on offense. DJ Uiagalelei struggled mightily this fall and could possibly be pushed by true Freshman early enrollee Cade Klubnik. Clemson also struggled on the offensive line and doesn’t have any proven threats in the passing game. The defense was outstanding this year and will get a potential star in Brian Bresee back from an ACL injury. There’s just so much uncertainty for Clemson who is replacing both coordinators and promoted from within to fill those vacancies. They have a tough road game at Notre Dame on the schedule and the games that figure to be the toughest in ACC play, Miami and NC State, are at home. There are issues at Clemson, but their conference is always going to give them a shot to contend, particularly if they can win that road game against the Irish.
Michigan, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas A&M +4000
Lumping all of these teams together for brevity sake and also because I see major issues betting on any of them. Michigan is a stay away in any futures markets until we get clarity on what’s happening with Jim Harbaugh, not to mention there’s a lot of talent leaving. Speaking of talent leaving, Oklahoma was pretty much gutted by Lincoln Riley leaving and it looks like Caleb Williams isn’t coming back so it’s going to take some time for Brent Venables to get the Sooners back contending at the national level. I hate the spot Dan Lanning is starting at with his first game against his old team Georgia in Atlanta which will leave Oregon with no wiggle room in the Pac-12. Even with Bo Nix transferring in, it’s tough to see them getting through unscathed. Texas A&M is probably in the best shape of this group, but they’re going to be replacing their entire front four on a very good defense and have some question marks at quarterback. It’s unrealistic to expect their historically great recruiting class to help the 2022 team win a title. Also, they have to go to Tuscaloosa and play an Alabama team that is going to want some revenge. That’s a tough spot.
The Dark Horse You’ll Hear A Lot About — NC State +2300
When considering dark horse picks, a few things are important: What’s the quarterback situation? How much roster continuity will there be? What does the schedule look like? Devin Leary was one of three quarterbacks with 35+ TD passes and five or fewer interceptions during the regular season alongside Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. NC State also might have as many as 14 of its top 15 tacklers returning in the fall. The schedule is the question. They have road games at Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina who very well may be their three toughest conference opponents. Fortunately, their toughest non-conference game is at home against a rebuilding Texas Tech team so it’ll likely come down to how they do in the conference. All that said…NC State isn’t a team you should back based on history. It’s a program that has only won 10 games once (despite them claiming a tenth win in the cancelled Holiday Bowl this year) and their last one-loss season was in 1957. I’m sure contrarian TV analysts will pick them as a surprise playoff team, and I’m curious to see what their odds to make the Playoffs will be, but they probably aren’t title contenders.
