Analyzing the Top 5 2019 Rookie RBs (Pre-NFL Draft)
By: Kyle Matheu
Rookie fever is in full swing as we’re just two weeks away from the 2019 NFL Draft. Although landing spots and draft capital will turn everyone’s rookie rankings upside down, it’s always beneficial to watch some tape, crunch some numbers, and form an opinion on the incoming rookie class prior to the draft. While it’s impossible to create concrete rookie RB rankings before they’re selected to a team, getting familiar with the incoming running back crop is key, even more so than with wide receivers simply because of the greater effect that landing spot has on the running back position. So let’s get to work. Take a look below and you’ll find my top 5 running backs in this incoming rookie class paired with an in-depth summary of each player, ideal landing spot, pro comparison, and projected draft range.
5. Darrell Henderson, Memphis
Totaling more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage, 25 touchdowns, and 8.9 yards per carry during his most recent collegiate season, Henderson is easily the most productive running back entering the 2019 NFL draft. He has the ability to take every touch to the house, and that shows on film. All it takes is one broken tackle or one gaping hole in the defensive line, and before you know it, Henderson’s past the secondary and on his way for six. Besides his blazing long-speed, one trait that pops out on Henderson’s film is his ability to set up defensive backs through the use of angles. In the clip below, Henderson is able to quickly identify the location of the defensive back in the secondary and immediately hit the running lane that gives the DB the longest possible path to him.
This is his key to consistently breaking off big runs, which gives me some concern regarding his NFL prospects. In the pros, Henderson won’t be able to toy with defensive backs as he often did at Memphis, so despite his home run hitting qualities, I expect significantly fewer breakaway runs for Henderson in the NFL. In addition, Henderson is able to make subtle movements that allow him to slip by would-be tacklers, but his lateral agility and jump-cutting ability leave a lot to be desired. When watching his film, it becomes apparent that whenever Henderson attempts a lateral jump cut, more often than not he loses his balance and goes down after being hit with something as light as an arm tackle, portraying sub-par contact balance.
If Henderson lands in an offense full of players that are capable of breaking off a big play at any time, he’ll shoot up my draft board. He needs a system that values home run hitting ability and getting their play-makers in space, utilizing Henderson to his strengths. However, if his future NFL team doesn’t fit this mold, he may be misused, and his fantasy prospects will take a hit.
Ideal Landing Spot: Buffalo Bills. If paired with big play specialists Josh Allen, John Brown, and Robert Foster in Buffalo, Henderson will be placed in the perfect system for his explosive style of play. LeSean McCoy will be 31 this upcoming season, so it’s time for a changing of the guard in that backfield. While I don’t believe Henderson will be a workhorse at the next level, he should be able to carve out a role as a 12–15 touch-per-game back that thrives in space and as a pass catcher. I expect Henderson to put up low-end RB2 numbers in fantasy if placed in the right system.
Pro Comparison: A less powerful Tevin Coleman.
Projected Draft Range: Third round
4. Damien Harris, Alabama
Harris gets consistently slept on by the draft community because his tape and analytical profile don’t jump off the page. His film isn’t eye-popping, and he is constantly overlooked because it’s apparent that he’s solid in all aspects, but unspectacular in any single aspect in particular. While this is cause for many individuals to rank him outside of their top 5 rookie running backs, it’s the exact reason as to why he’s ranked inside of mine. Harris does everything well, and while he may not be flashy, these traits will be highly coveted by an NFL front office. For a bigger-bodied back (5’10”, 216 lbs), Harris has deceptive breakaway speed that’s apparent on film. He’ll leave DBs in the dust, and is excellent once he reaches his second gear.
However, Harris doesn’t run with as much power as you’d expect from a running back of his frame, and that often prevents him from reaching this second gear. On film, Harris was consistently out-muscled by linebackers, so he was unable to get to the secondary as much as I would have liked to see.
This won’t kill his stock, however, as he’s an excellent pass catcher and makes defenders miss as well as any big-bodied back in this class. These traits will give Harris the opportunity to stay on the field during third down situations at the next level, which is huge for his fantasy stock. Lastly, the biggest storyline surrounding Harris this draft season is how he was able to keep the lead backfield duties away from Josh Jacobs for so long. Jacobs is considered to be the RB1 in this class by the majority of draft analysts, so I believe Harris’s extensive playing time at Alabama is a testament to his “get-it-done” ability as a running back, making it apparent that teams value an all-around skill set more than they value a flashy trait. While Harris’s profile may not get the draft community overly excited, don’t sleep on him as an NFL prospect. Fantasy points are fantasy points, whether the player racks up the stats in a flashy way or not.
Ideal landing spot: Oakland Raiders. I originally had the Bears in this spot, thinking that pairing a bigger back like Harris with a pass catching back like Tarik Cohen would be a spectacular one-two punch in the Chicago backfield. However, I think Harris is too talented of a pass catcher to be put in a situation where he won’t have many opportunities to do just that. As a result, I’m confident that Oakland will give him the chance to thrive catching passes out of the backfield and as a between-the-tackles runner, which is why I see this as the ideal pairing. Derek Carr loves dumping off to his RBs, and Harris will prove to be more than sufficient in this role.
Pro Comparison: Prime Carlos Hyde with shades of Mark Ingram’s pass catching ability.
Projected Draft Range: Third round
3. Miles Sanders, Penn State
Sanders had arguably the most impressive combine of the entire RB crop, which caused many people to go back and re-watch his film, including myself. While Henderson lacks lateral agility, Sanders oozes it. In addition, Sanders has excellent long speed, above-average strength that’s evident on tape, and great burst once he finds the hole.
On the other hand, one negative aspect of his game is that it often takes him too long to find the hole, and when he finally does find it he often hesitates to hit it. Sanders is overly reliant on his lateral agility and needs to trust his vision and burst more in order to succeed in the pros. When watching his film, it’s apparent that Saquon Barkley had a massive effect on Sanders’ running style. While this may sound like a huge plus for Sanders, I believe that this is the reason why Sanders often hesitates to hit the hole.
Saquon is as agile a running back as we’ve ever seen coming out of college, and at times it seemed as if Sanders wanted to show that he has impressive agility as well. This often led to Sanders missing open holes created by his linemen, and instead bouncing his carries outside. Although the run in the clip below turned into a large gain for Sanders, it’ll be significantly more difficult to find success with these types of plays in the NFL. As opposed to hitting the hole to his left, Sanders decided to trust his agility and bounce it outside to the right, which will give linebackers more time to close in on him at the next level.
However, with proper coaching, he should be more than fine in fixing this issue. There’s one thing that stands out on Sanders’s analytical profile, and it’s his late breakout age. This is usually a red flag for draft analysts, but Sanders was forced to sit behind another pretty good running back during his tenure at Penn State, so it’s safe to ignore this blip in his profile. While Sanders was able to maintain his health during the season in which he was featured as the workhorse back, he suffered mightily in the fumbling department. In order to secure a lead role at the next level, Sanders must improve upon this, but again, with NFL-caliber coaching, I’m confident that he will be able to resolve this issue. He’s already an extremely natural pass catcher, so if the fumbles can be reduced, I see no reason as to why he can’t be an 18-20 touch-per-game back in the league.
Ideal Landing Spot: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As I mentioned above twice, Sanders needs to land with a team that will coach him up properly to allow him to reach his full potential. When scanning over teams in need of a running back, Bruce Arians and the Bucs were a screaming fit. As you all remember, Arians was the head coach of the Cardinals during David Johnson’s historic campaign in 2016, and Johnson was certainly not an extremely refined prospect coming out of college in 2015. He was a third round pick in the NFL Draft, and Arians helped shape him into the superstar back that he is today. I see no reason as to why Sanders wouldn’t thrive under Arians’s coaching similar to the way David Johnson did.
Pro Comparison: Phillip Lindsay’s lateral agility, Devonta Freeman in the open field.
Projected Draft Range: Second round
2. Josh Jacobs, Alabama
Jacobs is one of the biggest enigmas in the entire draft process, if not the biggest. When given the keys to the Alabama backfield, Jacobs was one of the most impressive running backs in college football. On film he shows impressive patience, vision, and burst through the hole. He was originally recruited to Alabama as a slot receiver, so his pass catching skills are as good as any back’s in this class.
Jacobs’s functional strength is Leonard Fournette-in-college-esque, as he has the muscle to send linebackers to the ground with a stiff-arm and run over any defensive back that dares to get in his way.
However, as great as all these traits sound, there’s one question that looms over Jacobs’s draft stock: If Jacobs is as great as he sounds, why did he play behind Damien Harris and Najee Harris during the vast majority of his tenure at Alabama? Don’t get me wrong, Damien and Najee Harris are both excellent, NFL-caliber running backs. But if Jacobs is being praised as the only first round running back in this class, why is Damien Harris being projected to go multiple rounds later if he held the starting position over Jacobs in college? The obvious answer to me is that the draft community views Damien Harris as a known asset that has already reached his ceiling, but sees Jacobs as an underutilized college prospect with incredible traits that could blow up in a major way in the NFL. I understand this logic, but I’m avoiding Jacobs at his current ADP.
And yes, I know I have him as my RB2 in this class, so that would normally infer that I’m extremely high on him. My ranking of Jacobs has more to do with the high draft capital that I expect him to receive, which will in turn lead to Jacobs being given every chance to become a workhorse back in the NFL. Jacobs has the dangerous combo of poor college production and below-average athletic testing, but his traits and projected opportunity are enough for me to slot him in as my RB2 in this class.
Ideal Landing Spot: Philadelphia Eagles. Imagine the role that Jordan Howard would have as the two-down thumper for Philly, and then imagine the role that Corey Clement would have as the pass catching back on third downs. Now take both of those roles, combine them into one, and you have Jacobs’s potential usage if he were to land on the Eagles. After spending early draft capital on Jacobs, Philly would vault him ahead of both Howard and Clement on the depth chart, allowing him to become the bellcow back on a potentially high-scoring offense.
Pro Comparison: A mix of Kenyan Drake and a poor man’s Marshawn Lynch.
Projected Draft Range: Late round 1, early round 2
1. David Montgomery, Iowa State
Look at his college stats and you’ll see that he averaged a fairly abysmal 4.7 yards per carry during his final collegiate season. Look at his combine numbers and you’ll see that he’s a sub-par athlete. The raw numbers state that he’s slower and weaker than the majority of running backs in this class. But then you decide to turn on the tape and dig deeper into his analytical profile, and it all starts to make sense.
Iowa State boasted one of the worst offensive lines in college football, and Montgomery was often met by a defender three yards in the backfield. He also sported a rather high college dominator rating despite having multiple players with NFL talent on the Iowa State roster with him. While one may look at Darrell Henderson’s 8.9 yards per carry and compare it to Montgomery’s 4.7, turn on the film and you’ll see a vast difference in opportunity created by each player’s offensive line. Montgomery was still able to thrive at Iowa State despite his oft-required improvisation in the backfield, constantly churning out extra yards after contact. Of every running back in this class, the most impressive individual trait among them all is David Montgomery’s balance through contact. Imagine yourself trying to knock over those Bozo the Clown “bop bags” that stand right back up whenever you punch them, and that’s how I imagine defenders feel whenever attempting to tackle Montgomery. His ability to absorb contact, remain on his feet, and then accelerate into his next cut is practically unfair.
Montgomery is also extremely elusive in the open field despite his poor athletic testing at the combine, meaning that unless a defender gets a clean hit on him in the backfield, he’s not going down without a fight. Lastly, although he was used sparingly in the passing game at Iowa State, Montgomery is one of the more natural pass catchers in the draft. He rarely traps passes against his chest, and is consistently able to accelerate quickly once the ball is caught. This allows him to gain a head of steam in the open field, which spells bad news for opposing defenses due to his elite contact balance and open-field agility.
If he lands in a good spot that will utilize him heavily in the passing game and give him the opportunity to become the three-down back, I see no reason as to why Montgomery won’t put up low-end RB1 numbers early in his NFL career.
Ideal Landing Spot: Kansas City Chiefs. Just to preface, the logic behind choosing this destination as the ideal landing spot for Montgomery will become clearer after looking at his pro comparison. If Montgomery lands in an offense that gets their running backs touches in multiple different ways each game (I-Formation, Shotgun, pitch plays to the outside, RPOs, etc.), then NFL defensive coordinators better start game-planning now. The Chiefs fit this offensive model to a T, and they also happen to have a need at the running back position. This would be a match made in heaven.
Pro Comparison: Kareem Hunt with slightly worse long speed and slightly better contact balance.
Projected Draft Range: Second round
After the NFL Draft, I’ll be releasing a follow-up article analyzing the landing spots and draft capital spent on each of the five running backs listed above, stating whether I believe their stock has increased or decreased and why. In the meantime, be on the lookout for my upcoming piece on my top 5 rookie WRs, which will be released within the next week. Thanks for reading!
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