College Football National Championship Best Bets

Some bets I like for the rematch between Georgia and Alabama

The College Football season comes to a close tonight as a national champion will be crowned when Georgia and Alabama meet in a rematch of the SEC Championship Game the Tide won 41–24. Georgia is favored again even though the Dawgs got beat down in the first go around. I’ll be honest, the only outcome that would surprise me is Alabama winning a low scoring, close slugfest kind of game, but either team winning close or big wouldn’t surprise me. That doesn’t mean I don’t have looks I like, it just means I have no feel for a side in the game. As far as bets for the game go, though, I do have a few looks I do like.

Head to FanDuel Sportsbook to take advantage of your $1,000 risk-free bet if you like any of these bets or want to fade them.

Over 52.5

The total FLEW over in the SEC Championship game and thus this total is 3.5 points higher than it was for the first game. That said, I still like the over here. Georgia’s offense moved the ball pretty consistently in the first game putting up 449 yards of total offense. They were done in having to play from behind and putting more of the game on Stetson Bennett’s arm and he responded by throwing two interceptions. Georgia is going to look to avoid a repeat of that situation here, but they were a well oiled machine on offense against Michigan, running the ball a lot better against Michigan than they did Alabama the first go around. Georgia has also been ramping George Pickens up little by little since he made his season debut after returning from an ACL injury so he provides them with another option in the passing game. It seems a little bit unlikely that Alabama entirely replicates what they did in the first game and a lot has been made of John Metchie’s season ending injury suffered in the SEC Championship game, but I think that’s overblown. Bryce Young is the best player in the country and if Alabama’s banged up offensive line holds up, Alabama showed the Georgia secondary is vulnerable.

Ja’Corey Brooks over 45.5 receiving yards -115

It seems crazy to say that John Metchie is replaceable after catching 96 passes this year, but Metchie was the possession receiver opposite Jameson Williams’ big play threat in Alabama’s offense this year. Metchie averaged 11.9 yards per catch this year and if you look at all the big name receivers Alabama has produced this decade the lowest yards per catch average was Julio Jones’ 14.5 YPC in 2010 which was a different era of Alabama football. Alabama essentially got the output from Ja’Corey Brooks and Slade Bolden against Cincinnati that Metchie had against Georgia. I like Brooks here because he’s more of a big play threat than Bolden. Alabama is Alabama and has several young highly touted receivers who can make plays, but the former five-star Brooks was the highest rated recruit and none of the other young receivers had a catch against Cincinnati. Georgia is going to make it a point to not let Williams beat them so I expect Brooks to step up.

First TD Scorer Bets

Brock Bowers +700

Brooks +2000

Jermaine Burton +2000

Bryce Young +2500

Cam Latu +2500

Bowers is my favorite look of the shorter favorites. He has 12 touchdowns this year, seven more than anyone else on the Georgia roster. He’s a big kid with a huge catch radius which makes him a lethal target in the redzone. Because of his redzone ability I favor him over Williams a little bit and I think Alabama has fewer proven weapons in the passing game than Georgia does which I think helps Bowers. I wrote about Brooks above, at 20–1 he’s worth a shot. I like Burton as the big play receiver in Georgia’s offense. Burton averages 19.5 yards per catch so if Georgia comes out aggressive and takes some deep shots it’s likely Burton will be someone they’re throwing down the field to. Young isn’t much of a runner normally, but he was great against Georgia with his legs the first time around. For Alabama to have similar success in the rematch, Young is probably going to have to move around in the pocket and escape the pocket a little bit to keep the Georgia pass rush off balance. A scramble touchdown for Young feels possible. Latu’s production has tapered off as the season has progressed, but they don’t have a proven redzone threat in the passing game so at 25–1 I’ll take a swing with the big tight end who is second on the team in touchdown catches among players active in the game.