Covering the Spreads: Week 7

Tennessee Titans (3–3) versus Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 (4–2)

Don’t forget to set your alarm to check your lineups tomorrow morning as this game starts at 9:30 a.m. ET, as it is taking place across the pond in London. The Titans are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Ravens in which they allowed 11 sacks. This is especially impressive in today’s NFL where most of the time offenses have the advantage in terms of penalties and penalty yardage. For reference, the last time a team sacked the quarterback 11 times was in 1992, and this number is only one short of the all-time record. Conversely, the Chargers have been playing well as of late and are on a three-game win streak. They are clearly better than the Titans on both sides of the ball, and for that reason, I’ll take them to cover in London.

Buffalo Bills (2–4) versus Indianapolis Colts -7.5 (1–5)

You probably aren’t watching this one unless you are a fan of either team or have a vested fantasy interest. There aren’t too many fantasy relevant players on either team. It’s a big spread likely due to the Bills being without their rookie QB Josh Allen. There is really no way to tell how well Derek Anderson will do, but it is important to keep in mind that two weeks ago, he was looking for a job. If Allen was playing, I would take the Bills in this one, but he’s not. I just can’t take a quarterback that wasn’t even on an NFL roster until last week, even against the Colts in a -7.5 point spread. Lastly, the Colts know it would be an embarrassing loss in front of their fans so I expect them to come out with a lot of energy. I’ll take them to cover at home.

New England Patriots -3 (4–2) versus Chicago Bears (3–2)

Even though Josh Gordon only racked up 42 receiving yards last week, he played in 63 snaps, 81 percent of total snaps from the Patriots offense. In addition, he lead the team in targets. So it’s safe to say that Bill Belichick has full confidence in Gordon’s knowledge of the playbook. If he can overcome his questionable status, the Patriots offense may be too much for the Bears D to handle, especially if Khalil Mack doesn’t suit up. Although Mitch Trubisky has thrown the ball well in the past two weeks, I think New England will be able to put together a game plan on defense that should slow him down. I’ll take the Patriots to cover.

Cleveland Browns (2–3–1) versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (2–3)

Baker Mayfield has had above average play for a rookie quarterback in his first three starts of the season. The one thing holding him back has not been his play, but rather the hands of his receivers as Jarvis Landry and Antonio Callaway both have a catch rate of under 50 percent, 47 percent and 37 percent, respectively. While Callaway’s catch rate might not jump drastically, sure-handed Landry should definitely improve in that category, particularly because the Bucs defense is nothing to boast about. I can see Cleveland keeping this one close, so give me the Browns in Tampa.

Detroit Lions -3 (2–3) versus Miami Dolphins (4–2)

No one expected that Brock Osweiler performance last week against a top-tier Chicago defense. Even though they were only able to edge it out in overtime, it was still an impressive victory. Unfortunately for Miami, I can’t see Osweiler having another 380 yard three touchdown performance. Also, keep in mind that Detroit is coming off of the bye, giving them plenty of time to prepare for Miami. Count on the Lions to cover tomorrow in Florida.

Minnesota Vikings -3.5 (3–2–1) versus New York Jets (3–3)

Yet again, Dalvin Cook will not travel with his teammates as the Vikings take on the Jets in New Jersey. With Latavis Murray in the lineup, the Vikings run game will likely not improve from their current rank of 28th in rushing yards per game. In addition, the Vikings defense hasn’t played at the level that we all expected thus far as they don’t even rank among the top half of the league in points allowed per game. Although Kirk Cousins shouldn’t have too much of a problem moving the ball through the air, I can see the Jets keeping this game within three points, so I’ll take the home team in this one.

Carolina Panthers (3–2) versus Philadelphia Eagles -5 (3–3)

In a matchup of two evenly ranked teams, the Panthers will travel to the city of brotherly love to take on the defending Super Bowl champions. The Eagles defense has played well so far largely in part due to their run defense ranking second among all 32 NFL teams. On the other hand, Cam Newton and the Panthers are coming off of a tough loss in Washington as they were only able to put up seventeen. In that game, Christian McCaffrey was only able to rack up 20 yards on eight carries and he will likely struggle again this week. If Philly can keep the Panthers ground game in check, they should have no problem covering the five-point spread. Expect the Eagles to cover.

Houston Texans (3–3) versus Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 (3–3)

After starting off 0–3, Houston has been able to get their record up to .500 after winning three straight. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has taken two straight losses, including a brutal 40–7 loss last week against the Cowboys. Again, Jacksonville will be without Leonard Fournette who has been sidelined the past couple of weeks with a hamstring injury. Even though the Jags just traded for Carlos Hyde, I don’t think he will be able to learn enough of the playbook to make a significant difference in between the tackles tomorrow. Therefore, you have to expect their run game to remain lackluster with TJ Yeldon as the starter. Furthermore, the Texans defense ranks among the top ten in yards allowed per game, so you can expect them to have enough success against the Jags to keep the game close. I’ll take Houston as the underdog in Florida.

New Orleans Saints (4–1) versus Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (4–2)

In a battle of the best on opposite sides of the ball, the Saints will travel North to take on the Ravens in Baltimore. The Ravens defense ranks first in yards allowed per game and points allowed per game but the Saints offense leads the league in PPG. So, which 11 men squad will prevail? It’s a tough call but I think the Ravens should be able to take this one at home. However, I anticipate them only winning by one or two points. The New Orleans offense is just too talented, especially with Mark Ingram back in the lineup.

Dallas Cowboys (3–3) versus Washington Redskins -1 (3–2)

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are coming off an impressive home win last week against Jacksonville. Even still, they are one point underdogs on the road tomorrow in an important divisional matchup. Their defense is largely underrated in my opinion as they rank second in PA/PG and fourth in yards allowed. I don’t think the Washington offense is all that great and to make matters worse, both of their running backs are questionable going into this game. Additionally, I can see the Cowboys running all over the Redskins in this game which is why I’ve got the underdog on the road in this one.

Los Angeles Rams -10.5 (6–0) versus San Francisco 49ers (1–5)

The last undefeated team in the league will look to stay that way as they travel up the coastline to San Francisco. They shouldn’t have a problem even with Cooper Kupp out. Yet, I still can’t take a road team on a 9.5 point spread. Especially since the 49ers only loss over ten came against the Chiefs in week three. Even with C.J. Beathard at quarterback, I think San Francisco will be able to keep this game within 10.

Cincinnati Bengals (4–2) versus Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 (5–1)

In a game full of fantasy starters, the Bengals will travel to Missouri to take on the Chiefs on Sunday night. This game will likely turn into a shootout as both of these offenses excel in the passing game. It’s a hard call to make, but I’m going to go with my gut and take the underdog here for a couple of reasons. Namely, I think primetime games are usually very competitive as both teams know that that they are playing in front of the entire country. Cincinnati is going to come out with a lot of energy and I like their offense with AJ Green, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon all coming in healthy. Especially going up against one of the league’s worst defenses, I don’t see how they will struggle to move the ball downfield. I can see this game coming down to a last-second field goal so I’ve got my money on the Bengals.

New York Giants (1–5) versus Atlanta Falcons -4 (2–4)

It has been hard to watch the Giants play football this season. Tied for the worst record in the NFL, they rank among the bottom ten in PPG and yards per game. While they will most likely get Evan Engram back this week, I’m not sure if that will be enough of a boost to turn the Giants offense around as Eli Manning will still be playing quarterback. With Atlanta playing at home, it should only make you more confident that they will be able to cover this week.

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