Covering the Spreads: Week 9
Atlanta Falcons (3–4) versus Washington Redskins -1.5 (5–2)
The Washington Redskins run defense has been great thus far, giving up the second fewest yards on the ground through the first eight games of the season. While their offense has been mediocre at best, Adrian Peterson has been a bright spot. Washington will most likely be run-heavy again in this game which should limit the amount of time the Atlanta offense is on the field. This, along with the addition of Haha Clinton-Dix to the Redskins defense should help keep Atlanta in check. I’ve got Washington covering the spread here at home.
New York Jets (3–5) versus Miami Dolphins -3.5 (4–4)
Both teams come into this game with some key injuries on the offensive side of the ball. The Jets will likely be out of their two top wide receivers in Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson, and the Dolphins will have to roll with Brock Osweiler in replacement for Ryan Tannehill yet again. As the Dolphins are playing at home, I think they will be able to cover. Their defense ranks second in interceptions, albeit they haven’t been good in many other areas. Still, I’m counting on Miami to win by at least four.
Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (7–1) versus Cleveland Browns (2–5–1)
The revamped coaching staff in Cleveland will not have an easy first matchup tomorrow at home as they will take on one of the leagues best offenses. If the Browns hadn’t just fired their head coach and offensive coordinator, I might have gone with them in such a big spread, but it is impossible to know how the offense will look under Freddie Kitchens, their former running backs coach. I don’t think the Chiefs will have any problem covering here.
Detroit Lions (3–4) versus Minnesota Vikings -4.5 (4–3–1)
Matt Stafford will have to take on the Vikings in Minnesota this week without Golden Tate, his No. 1 wide receiver through the first half of the season. It’s hard to say how much this will affect the Lion’s offensive production as Kenny Golladay has looked great thus far. Kirk Cousins might also be without one of his top targets in Stefon Diggs and his replacement, Laquon Treadwell, has been known to have problems with drops. However, it’s looking like Minnesota might get back Xavier Rhodes this week which would likely stunt the offensive production of whichever Detriot wideout he shadows. If Rhodes ends up suiting up, I have confidence that the Vikings will be able to slow down the Lions enough to cover the spread at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3–4) versus Carolina Panthers -6.5 (5–2)
Tampa Bay will re-insert Ryan Fitzpatrick into the starting lineup for this game against Carolina. Fitzpatrick has seven more touchdowns and five fewer interceptions than Jameis Winston this season. More importantly than the offensive production this move will bring, it bodes well for a Bucs defense that has given up the most points per game to opposing offenses this season as they likely won’t have to respond to as many turnovers. While the Panthers defense isn’t nearly as bad as Tampa Bay’s, they have had problems stopping the deep ball, which is something that Fitzpatrick excels at. Because of this, I think the Tampa offense will be able to keep this game under six points so I’m rolling with them on the road in Carolina.
Chicago Bears -8.5 (4–3) versus Buffalo Bills (2–6)
Unfortunately for the Bills, they will have to revert back to Nathan Peterman with Derek Anderson out with a concussion and Josh Allen still dealing with an elbow injury. It’s hard to play as bad as Peterman who has thrown an interception on every four pass attempts this season. Even though it’s always hard to go with an away team with a large spread, I don’t think the Bills will be able to do anything offensively and I could easily see Chicago scoring a couple on defense. I’ve got da Bears covering in Buffalo.
Pittsburgh Steelers (4–2–1) versus Baltimore Ravens -3 (4–4)
The Steelers will travel to Baltimore here in a key divisional matchup for both teams. The last time these two teams faced off, the Ravens were able to come out on top 26–14 on the road. The Baltimore defense has been spectacular this season and they sit atop the league in yards and points allowed per game, even after giving up 36 points last week to the Panthers. With Baltimore losing three out of their last four, they need to come out of here with a win. I could easily see Justin Tucker kicking a last-second field goal to put them up by three so I’ll take the Ravens to cover in this one.
Los Angeles Chargers (5–2) versus Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (4–3)
Even though the Chargers are coming off of a bye, they might be without Melvin Gordon, who has been nursing a hamstring injury. This could severely impact the Charger’s offensive production especially going up against a surprising Top 5 Seahawks defense. Furthermore, Russell Wilson has been on fire in his past five games only throwing one interception along with 11 touchdowns. Although LA has had an extra week to prepare, I think they will be able to come out on top at home. I’ve got Seattle covering tomorrow.
Houston Texans (5–3) versus Denver Broncos -2.5 (3–5)
In his first game with the Texans, Demaryius Thomas will take on his old team right away at Mile High. While he might not be able to learn enough of the playbook to get a significant amount of playing time, he will still be a factor that the Broncos defense will have to consider. It’s also important to not underestimate the knowledge he will bring to the Houston defense in preparing for this game. Even though Watson will be without his No. 1 deep threat in Will Fuller V, the Texans are on a five-game winning streak. I don’t think they will have any problem extending that to six. I’ve got them in an upset.
Los Angeles Rams (8–0) versus New Orleans Saints -1.5 (6–1)
In a battle between two of the leagues top teams the Rams will travel down to the bayou to take on Drew Brees and his Saints. The Saints haven’t lost since week one and if they want to add onto their six-game win streak they will have to figure out how to move the ball against a solid Rams defense. This game for me is pretty much a toss-up with both teams being such powerhouses which is why my deciding factor is going to be home field advantage. In addition to that, the Rams are coming off a tough fought win against the Packers and it’s never easy to play two high caliber offenses two weeks in a row. I’ll take the Saints to cover here.
Green Bay Packers (3–3–1) versus New England Patriots -5.5 (6–2)
In a great Sunday night matchup, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will travel to Foxborough to take on Tom Brady and the Patriots. While the Packers are coming off of a tough two-point loss against the Rams, the Patriots are on a five-game win streak after starting off the season 1–2. Both teams have middle of the pack defenses but the Packers have taken a slight hit after offloading their top free safety, Haha Clinton-Dix. However, I think Rodgers will show up in primetime and keep this game close so give me the Cheeseheads to keep it under five in this one.
Tennessee Titans (3–4) versus Dallas Cowboys -6.5 (3–4)
These two three and four teams will look to improve their records to .500 on Monday night in Dallas. Marcus Mariota has looked terrible this season only throwing three touchdowns alongside five interceptions. However, they were able to pull out an impressive win against Jacksonville in week three and lost to the Eagles and Chargers by a combined four points. It is a large spread for a primetime game but Dallas’s offense should improve with the addition of Amari Cooper. If the Cowboys can finally get Dak throwing the ball again, they should be able to cover at home. I’m rolling with them on Monday night.
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