Diving into the Outfield — Part 2
This week is Diving in the Outfield-Part 2 and I’m looking into outfielders past pick 200 on NFBC ADP. If you missed part one where I look at a few notable outfielders inside the top 200 picks, then read it here. A couple guys I looked into were boring players that will provide some value to your team depending on your roster construction.
Adam Eaton, OF, Washington Nationals
Adam Eaton has an NFBC ADP of 203 and goes as the 51st outfielder off the board. Last year, Eaton hit 15 home runs, had 103 runs, 49 RBI, and 15 stolen bases. The 103 runs surprised me. Though it makes sense since he spent most of his time batting at the top of a good lineup in the two-hole. He slashed .279/.365/.428 with a 9.9% walk rate and 16.2% strikeout rate. Eaton has consistently produced high batting averages and on base skills. His career slashline is .285/.363/.417. He’s averaged slightly over 14 home runs and 15 stolen bases in seasons where he’s played more than 150 games (2015, 2016, and 2019). When looking at those three seasons, he’s averaged 97 runs and 54 RBI. In 2017 and 2018, his counting stats weren’t great because he played 23 and 95 games, but his slashline remained consistent.
Batted Ball Profile and Statcast Data
When digging into his batted ball profile, his ground ball and fly ball rates last year were much different than 2015 and 2016. His line drive rate remained consistent. Here were his ground ball rates in 2015 and 2016: 50.7% and 53.7%. His fly ball rate those two seasons were 27.3% and 25.8%. Check out his ground ball and fly ball rate in 2019: 39.6% ground ball rate and 40.4% fly ball rate. His launch angle last season jumped up to 13.2 degrees when it was 6.4 and 3.4 degrees in 2015 and 2016. So that might explain his jump in fly ball rate. Last season was definitely an outlier in terms of the ground ball rate, fly ball rate, and launch angle.
His average exit velocity was 86.6 mph (16th percentile), 34.2% hard hit rate (26th percentile), and 3.8% barrel rate (15th percentile). When sorting by FB/LD, his average exit velocity was 91.6 mph, which ranks him right behind Jorge Polanco. I don’t think we need to worry too much about his Statcast data because they’re not great, and that’s not really what we are drafting him for. We’re drafting him for runs, double digit power/steals, and high batting averages.
Last season, Eaton used the whole field. Most of his batted balls went straight to centerfield (39%). He pulled the ball the least at 29.4% of the time last year. When looking at his platoon splits, about 75% of his plate appearances were against righties, so his counting statistics were much higher. However, his triple slash against lefties and righties were pretty consistent.
Summary
I’ll be honest that Eaton is someone I’ve overlooked in previous years. Sadly, it only took me about eight years to dig into him more. The ATC Projection System on Fangraphs has Eaton taking a slight step down from 2019, but that is taking into account him playing 134 games. It’s definitely reasonable to predict he may not play 150 games or more in a full season since he’s only done that in three out of eight years. ATC projects him to hit 13 home runs, 86 runs, 54 RBI, 13 stolen bases while slashing .284/.368/.431.
Eaton might be a guy people are fading in a shortened season, but he’s a middle round guy that provides a good average and OBP with runs scored. He chips in around 15/15 when he plays 150 games or more and may be a guy that’s labeled an “accumulator.” People seem to be down on accumulators like Eaton in a shortened season, so you may be able to draft him at a value in a shortened 2020 season.
Luis Arraez, 2B/OF, Minnesota Twins
Luis Arraez is a high batting average and OBP guy that’s dual eligible. Last year, he hit four home runs, 54 runs, 28 RBI, and two stolen bases. He slashed .334/.399/.439 with a 9.8% walk rate and a 7.9% strikeout rate. Rarely do we see players with a higher walk than strikeout rate. Now his counting statistics aren’t super exciting, but it’s hard to find a high batting average later in the draft. Arraez has a 246 NFBC ADP. The Twins lineup is loaded with the addition of Josh Donaldson. Arraez is projected to bat in the bottom third of the lineup, but he still holds value. By now I hope you know who this guy is, but if you don’t here’s a video of him.
Batted Ball Profile and Statcast Data
Arraez had an almost identical line drive (29.4%) and fly ball rate (29.1%). His ground ball rate last year was 41.5%. He’s a guy that uses the whole field: 29% pull, 34.3% center, and 36.7% to the opposite field. He makes a ton of contact across the board. He either leads or is in the top three in O-Contact %, Z-Contact %, and Contact %. He had the highest O-Contact rate at 89.5%, third in Z-Contact rate at 95.4%, and highest Contact rate at 93.3%. The two players that have a higher Z-Contact rate were David Fletcher and Michael Brantley.
His hard hit rate and average exit velocity weren’t that great, but not surprising for a guy with minimal power and a higher batting average. However, I’ll put it here anyway. He had a 86.9 mph average exit velocity (19th percentile), 2.7% barrel rate (9th percentile), and a 22.1% hard hit rate (4th percentile). His average exit velocity on FB/LD was 89.2 mph which was tied with Daniel Murphy and in front of Kolten Wong. His strikeout and whiff rates were the best in the league in the 100th percentile! He only struck out 29 times in 2019 with a 7.9% whiff rate.
Summary
Now I understand that his Statcast data isn’t super exciting, but that’s not what we’re drafting him for. We’re drafting him for that high batting average with some counting statistics in a really good Twins lineup. Although he’s projected to bat 7th according to Roster Resource, he’ll be batting in between Mitch Garver and Miguel Sano who can both mash. If you punted batting average in the earlier rounds, then Arraez is a good fit for your roster construction. He might be a good fit to pair with this next guy or a Randal Grichuk type.
Domingo Santana, OF, Cleveland Indians
When looking at outfielders going past pick 300, I stumbled upon Domingo Santana. I remember being really excited about him after his breakout year in 2017. Drafting Santana in 2018 didn’t work out so well and I probably held on for a little too long. However, he still provides 20–30 home run power with double digit steal potential. Last year with the Mariners, he hit 21 home runs, had 63 runs, 69 RBI, and eight stolen bases. He slashed .253/.329/.441 with a 9.9% walk rate and 32.3% strikeout rate. Santana’s NFBC ADP is 313, which is a bit surprisingly to me.
Batted Ball Profile and Statcast Data
Let’s look at his batted ball data. He had a 26.6% line drive rate, 42.6% ground ball rate, and a 30.8% fly ball rate. When I compare his 2019 to his 2017 numbers, there were some similarities. Last season his ground ball rate went down and his fly ball rate went up from his 2017 numbers. Both of which were about 2–3% different. I’m not comparing him to his 2018 numbers because he really struggled and played about half the season. I’m trying to see if he could come close to that 2017 breakout year. Although when looking at his 2018 batted ball profile, it’s still pretty similar outside of his HR/FB rate. His pull rate was slightly higher in 2019 at 39.4%, but still hit 34.6% of his balls to the middle of the field. I mention that because sometimes we see power hitters be aggressive and pull the ball a lot.
Santana had a 89 mph average exit velocity (49th percentile), 42.1% hard hit rate (69th percentile), and a 12.5% barrel rate (86th percentile). His FB/LD average exit velocity was 94.6 mph, which was tied with Hunter Renfroe and Brian Anderson. Santana’s barrel rate had him tied with Freddie Freeman and Austin Meadows. His launch angle was about league average at 11.7 degrees. His xwOBAcon last season was .483 and almost exactly the same as it was during his breakout year in 2017. It was positive to see his xwOBAcon in 2017 and 2019 were tops in the league. I understand Statcast data is meant to be descriptive and not predictive, but it gives me home that maybe he can get close to those 2017 numbers again. His 2019 numbers across the board weren’t as good as 2017 in Milwaukee. However, I’ll attribute that to the Mariners’ home park not being as hitter friendly.
Summary
Santana is projected to bat 7th in the Indians lineup and should be playing every day in the outfield. Now that he’s on the Indians, maybe the counting stats jump up to be something in between his 2017 and 2019 numbers. Although when we look at his projections, the games played don’t project him to play a full season. And it doesn’t look like the projections have adjusted for a shortened season yet.
The BAT and ATC have slightly different projections with games played and counting stats, but similar slashline projections. The BAT has him projected to play 89 games, hit 15 home runs, 51 runs, 49 RBI, and four stolen bases. And his projected slashline with the BAT is .255/.341/.441 with a 10.7% walk rate and 31.2% strikeout rate. ATC projects him to hit 20 home runs, 57 runs, 60 RBI, and seven stolen bases in 115 games. With ATC, Santana’s slashline is .252/.337/.459 with a 10.8% walk rate and 32% strikeout rate. We know what we’re getting from Santana which is 20–25 home run power with double digit steal potential past pick 300. I’ll leave you with this because I love seeing this guy mash.
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