Down and Dynasty
Rookie check in at the quarter pole of the NFL season
Dynasty fantasy football is my favorite format, as you might have notice. The value of rookies and young players can throw off those new to the dynasty format. You shouldn’t let that stop you from playing dynasty though. Learning how the value of a player can fluctuate during the season will help you decide what moves you should make.
We are at the point of the fantasy football season where teams are separating into the haves and have nots. Astute dynasty owners are taking stock of their teams. At 4–0 it is time to look at the depth and make sure you have bye week coverage, checking for opportunities to pick up that piece that keeps you at the front of the herd. If you are sitting at 3–1 or 2–2 you are in the playoff hunt and might be even more inclined to make a move to pick up a player to improve your depth for that playoff run. If you are unfortunately, 1–3 or 0–4, this is where the real fun of dynasty lies. I mean, don’t get me wrong, being 4–0 or 3–1 is much better, but unlike re-draft where it can be easy to lose motivation when you get off to a bad start, in dynasty the action heats up.
So, we have taken stock of our teams, now we take stock of the rookies that came into the league this year.
1. Saquon Barkley RB New York Giants — The consensus top rookie has widely lived up to expectations, leading all rookie running backs in rushing with 260 yards and receptions with 27.
2. Derrius Guice RB Washington Redskins — Out for the season after tearing his ACL in training camp. If it is looking like this isn’t going to be your season, Guice is a top shelf target if you can find him on the injured reserve of a contender who has a need you can fill.
3. Rashad Penny RB Seattle Seahawks — Penny has been a disappointment so far, unable to beat out 2017 sixth round draft pick Chris Carson. He will be an easier player to pry loose than Guice.
4. Sony Michel RB New England Patriots — Michel had a knee injury coming out of training camp and got off to a slow start. With Rex Burkhead now on the IR, Michel is taking over the early down role in New England.
5. Ronald Jones RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Not able to crack the active roster until Week 4 in a game that Tampa was blown out by Chicago, Jones managed a 10 carry for 29-yard performance. Jones might be the easiest of the top-rated rookie backs to snag in a trade.
6. Nick Chubb RB Cleveland Browns — Currently backing up Carlos Hyde in Cleveland, Chubb showed off the spark that made him a second-round pick with two long touchdowns against the Raiders.
7. Royce Freeman RB Denver Broncos — Freeman is in a time share with fellow rookie Phillip Lindsey and third year man Devontae Booker. Freeman has flashed lead back talent but has not been given the volume to show it off.
8. DJ Moore WR Carolina Panthers — Through three games Moore has caught 2-of-4 passes for 54 yards. Coming out of the bye week this could be an opportunity to trade a veteran to a contender for the rookie who is under producing.
9. Kerryon Johnson RB Detroit Lions — The rookie has shown himself to be the most dynamic back in Detroit, but finds himself in a timeshare. In Week 3 Johnson put up the Lions first 110-yard game since 2013.
10. Calvin Ridley WR Atlanta Falcons — Ridley has put to rest any questions about his athleticism in the first quarter of the season, putting up 16 receptions for 264 yards and a team leading 6 touchdowns.
11. Christian Kirk WR Arizona Cardinals — Mired in one of the leagues worst offenses, Kirk leads the team in receptions. The Cardinals switched to rookie quarterback Josh Rosen in hopes of getting the offense started.
12. Courtland Sutton WR Denver Broncos — The big wideout from SMU came into training camp and staked his claim to the third wide receiver role. Sutton has responded with eight receptions and 17.8 yards per catch.
13. Baker Mayfield QB Cleveland Browns — A brash and confident player who took over in week three after an injury to starter Tyrod Taylor and led the Browns to their first victory in over a year. Mayfield was rewarded with the starting job.
That’s a baker’s dozen of rookies through four games. Some are presenting buying opportunities, and if you are willing to give a veteran that can help a contender you might just find yourself with a young stud going into the 2019 season. Conversely, if you are contending don’t be afraid to make a move with a young guy to get the asset you need to win.
I took over an orphan this past year. The team was pretty good, and after this week I will be 3–1. I need some firepower so I just made a move. I sent Chris Thompson, Sutton and first round picks from 2020 and 2021 for Mike Evans and Justin Jackson. Evans improves my wide receivers and Jackson will go on my taxi squad in hopes that the three down ability he showed in college gets an opportunity in the NFL. Time will tell if this was the right move.
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