Draft Kings Week 14 Plays
Welcome in one and all! I hope last week as good to you, it was OK to me. Made money back, but not much in the way of profit. I wanted to take this time to remind you guys that weird crap can happen in the NFL and we just can’t predict that. For example, the Browns going extremely pass heavy compared to usual and Baker being much more efficient than usual. This outlier week from the Browns created a game scenario where both teams went away from their usual method of attack and the guys we liked ( the running backs based on 12 weeks of stats, data and film) wound up not producing as well as the passing attack. The process wasn’t off here, just a weird game flow which does happen and can happen at any time. Just remember this when going forward, especially if your head is low because you didn’t cash or win as much as you would have liked because of things like this. This was a long preamble, sorry about that! Let’s dig into Week 14!
Value Plays
Mike Glennon: He’s super cheap at just $5,100 and is playing the Titans who’s passing defense is, well, much to be desired. This game also has the third highest implied point total with the Titans favored by 7.5. Points are going to be scored here and the Tennessee defense should make it easier than usual. I don’t know if he can erupt here, but he can easily get 20 points which is huge given the salary he saves you.
Myles Gaskins: He’s only $5,600 against the Chiefs who rank 30th in defensive DVOA against the run. This game is going to be more competitive than people think. A lot of people will see KC versus Miami, assume the Dolphins get blown out and shy away from the running game here. The thing is, the Dolphins are not a slouch of a team and KC’s defense is leaving a lot of yardage and points available for opposing offenses. I really like Gaskins this week.
D.J. Chark: Chark is $5,300 this week against the Titans in a high scoring game. Look he’s the best player on this offense and gets a soft matchup where points are going to be scored. You could do significantly worse at this price tag.
Dallas Goedert: He’s just $4,000 this week in a game against the Saints, who are an elite defense but more attackable with the tight end than anything else. He’s talented, with big play upside and comes with the bonuses of being cheap and having low ownership given everyone flocking to Waller after last week’s eruption.
Must Plays
Kirk Cousins: I really like Kirk Cousins this week at only $6,200. He’s now got three weeks straight of 300-plus yards and three touchdowns. I’m not expecting that for sure. However, they’re playing Tampa Bay this week, who’s defense is not what it appeared to be in the beginning of the year, they also funnel opposing offenses through the air allowing 276 passing yards per game to just 74 rushing yards per game. I think he can continue his hot streak here.
Aaron Jones: The Packers are favored by 7.5 points here and are facing one of the softest run defenses in the league. They made David Montgomery look good last week, I’m excited to see what Aaron Jones can do here. He’s also cheaper than I would have expected given his success and this match-up at only $7,600.
Justin Jefferson: Jefferson is $7,400 this week, but I love this game environment. The pass funnel nature of Tampa Bay and the all around “meh-ness” of the Vikings sets this game up to be a spot where fantasy players want to attack. On top of that, this rookie is the truth. He’s exceptional and seeing a ton of targets at all levels of the field.
Indianapolis Colts Defense/Special Teams: The Raiders aren’t as bad as they looked last week, but, I do not believe in Derek Carr at all. I think they’ll struggle here against an elite defensive unit that’s going to create some pressure. A few sacks and turnovers are likely here.
That does it for this week! Best of luck in week one of your fantasy play-offs and, as always, feel free to reach out to me with any thoughts, comments or questions on Twitter @FFAWare!
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