Fantasy Baseball:
~Streamers 8/8–8/14~
~Buy low/Sell high~
~Pitching streamers for week 18~
By Mike Cave
Welcome to week 18’s Streamer’s Delight! In this section I will give around 8–12 possible streaming pitcher options that are around or under 50% owned in ESPN leagues. My goal is to provide you with pitchers that I believe will give you a decent shot at a QS/Win or both and in turn, hopefully hit two out of three streamers. Based on the QS/Win criteria, my last week’s record: 4–2 (two going on Sunday) and ytd record: 56–26. *Note: some opposing pitchers and pitching dates are subject to change.
In order by date…
Kevin Gausman BAL 8/8 (@OAK, Graveman)
-Although Gausman has tossed five QS out of his last seven starts, he hasn’t been very consistent this season. His nice strikeout upside and the fact that he’s facing one of the worst offensive teams in the league, give this young pitcher a boost next week and makes him stream worthy. His mound opponent, Kendall Graveman, has pitched better of late, save his latest outing where he gave up six earned runs over four innings, but Gausman should be able to cruise through the sixth inning or so and get the run support to help his chances at a win.
Zach Davies MIL 8/8 (vs ATL, Whalen and 8/13 vs CIN, Straily)
-Probably the most intriguing of the streamers this week, Davies has two very favorable matchups. First he gets to face off against arguably the worst team in the league, the Braves and then against the Reds later in the week. A few more positives working for Davies is that he’s at home for both matchups, where he possesses a 3.50 ERA over 12 of his 19 total starts on the season. Davies won’t blow you away with his strikeouts, but he’s been very consistent by only giving up more than three runs once since the beginning of June…that’s eight weeks! Not to mention he’s 6–1 over that span. Pick up Davies and start him with confidence.
Mike Fiers HOU 8/9 (@MIN, Santiago)
-Fiers is rarely a pitcher I recommend, but he’s tossed three straight QS and he faces a so-so offense in the Twins. His mound opponent, Hector Santiago, is very inconsistent and struggles to keep his pitch count at a decent number. The bad thing is that the Astros tend to strikeout a lot and if they don’t get on base and mount up enough runs, Fiers won’t have a good chance at a W. But looking at the brighter side, Fiers has a 1.77 ERA against the Twins lifetime in three career starts…let’s hope he has their number this time as well.
Jameson Taillon PIT 8/11 (vs SD, Friedrich)
-Taillon has pitched exactly six innings and earned a QS in each of his last five starts and while nearly averaging a strikeout per inning. There’s no doubt that Taillon is benefiting from pitching in the NL, but he’s very talented and was highly touted before he made his debut in the big leagues earlier in the season. San Diego ranks dead last in average against righties at a .231 clip, so everything points up in this matchup. Pick up this young starter if he’s available and toss him out there with no regrets.
Sean Manaea OAK 8/12 (vs SEA, Walker)
-This streamer is more of a gut feeling than anything…I’m hoping he can last six innings and get a QS at home against the Mariners…a team that generally struggles against lefties (currently 24th). Manaea’s had a bumpy first season with an ERA of 4.68 and a WHIP of 1.31, but with the right matchup, I think he can shine and given his decent K rate, I’m willing to take the chance.
James Paxton SEA 8/13 (@OAK, Graveman)
-Paxton is a pitcher that I usually don’t feel comfortable starting because you truly never know what you’re going to get from him. He has tons of upside with his sometimes triple digit fastball, but he seems to get into trouble with his limited amount of pitches, especially the second and third go around in the order. Yet again, the matchup is right and with Oakland being one of the bottom feeders in the league and not good against lefties, Paxton finds himself stream-worthy next Saturday.
Adam Conley MIA 8/13 (vs CWS, Shields)
-Conley finds himself in a good predicament next week as he faces off against the White Sox at home. Conley sports a 3.41 ERA on the year, but a better 2.88 ERA at home, which plays in the White Sox dreadful road splits. Currently the White Sox are 21st and 24th in the league in average and runs scored on the road…two stats that I would want to exploit if I’m looking for a streamer next week. To make things a tad more favorable for Conley and the Marlins, the opposing pitcher, James Shields, carries a hefty 6.39 ERA on the road. Signs point up for Conley and the Marlins in this matchup.
Dan Straily CIN 8/13 (@MIL, Davies)
-Straily has been very solid of late, posting seven QS in a row and his ERA has creeped under 4.00 in the process. Straily looked like a flash in the pan earlier in the year when he went on a good stretch and fantasy owners thought he could be trusted, but we quickly learned after his six run blow up against the horrible Braves that we were back to the drawing boards with him. Well, save one bad start since that 6/16 outing in Atlanta, Straily has been very trustworthy…tossing a QS against Washington, San Francisco, and Miami, all of which are playoff caliber teams. Given how mediocre the Brewers are, I have no issues here if you need a filler.
Tyler Anderson COL 8/13 (@PHI, Eickhoff)
-One of the more pleasant surprises of the year is Tyler Anderson. One rule that most fantasy owners know going into any given week before the 2016 season is that you can never ever trust a Colorado starting pitcher…ever, especially at home in Coors field. Well, things have changed quite a bit this season as the Rockies have more than one starting pitcher you can trust in almost any outing whether at home or on the road and Tyler Anderson is one of them. Anderson has either won or thrown a QS in his last seven games. His ERA sits at a beautiful 3.25 and he’s facing an inept offense in the Phillies. The Phillies rank near the bottom in almost every offensive category and rank dead last in runs scored and batting average. If it’s one team I’d almost always look to stream against, it’s the Phillies.
Some 50/50 options…
Blake Snell TB 8/10 (@TOR, Happ)
-Most likely positive outcome…QS (high K upside)
Jose Berrios MIN 8/11 (vs HOU, Fister)
-Most likely positive outcome…QS (high K upside)
Mike Foltynewicz ATL 8/11 (@MIL, Garza)
-Most likely positive outcome…W (moderate K rate)
Dylan Bundy BAL 8/12 (@SF, Cain)
-Most likely positive outcome…QS, W (high K upside)
Matt Andriese TB 8/13 (@NYY, Tanaka)
-Most likely positive outcome…QS (moderate K rate)
~Week 18: Buy low/Sell high~
By Tyler Davis
Buy Low:
Robbie Ray: Ray is a bit different than most players I usually suggest in the buy low section, as he’s not heavily owned. Ray is incredibly frustrating to many people that follow analytics and sabermetrics; his elite K-rate and elite groundball rate make him seem like a great option as a pitcher. However, an ERA north of 4 and a high WHIP drive most people away, as Ray is the model of inconsistency. I wouldn’t normally suggest an inconsistent pitcher as a buy option in fantasy, but over the last 30 days everything has pointed to Ray being on the rise. His K-BB% is north of 30%, among the best in baseball in that timeframe. K-BB% is among one of the more accurate representations of good pitchers in baseball, as it features guys like Kershaw, Jose Fernandez, and Max Scherzer. Along with this, Ray has a FIP and xFIP south of 3.7 and a SIERA below 3, meaning that positive results should be in his near future. Cutting down on walks and striking out more hitters is a recipe for success, especially paired with Ray’s LOB% climbing recently. Put all of these factors together and Ray could be a breakout piece to end the year.
Yu Darvish: I’ve noticed on several fantasy baseball forums online that owners are frustrated with Darvish thus far since his return from injury. He’s not going deep in starts, limiting his ability to get wins and be completely effective. Looking closer into this and comparing Darvish in limited time to his career statistics I was surprised to see that he’s actually outperforming his career stats in strikeouts, walks, strand rate, as well as ground ball and fly ball rates. Darvish also has a FIP and xFIP lower than his current ERA, suggesting that he’s only going to get better as the Rangers turn him loose to end the season. Darvish has been a top 10–15 pitcher before his injury, and I expect nothing less in August/September.
Chris Davis: Of all players in fantasy baseball, Davis might be the biggest head-scratcher of them all. His hot and cold streaks are insane, and during those cold streaks he can absolutely drive you crazy, but on those hot streaks he’ll carry you through a week. Over the last month Davis is in the bottom qualified players in both BABIP and ISO. With a player like Davis that absolutely crushes the ball, neither of these stats should be anywhere near the bottom of the league. His problem this year is much like 2014, he’s seeing an extremely high volume of breaking balls and walking more than usual, but not putting up much else. This is a high risk move, but the reward makes it worth taking a chance on him and prying him from an owner that’s likely fed up with poor play over the last month and a half.
Sell High:
Carlos Carrasco: Carrasco has sparkled over the last year and a half as one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he’s also battled injuries in his career and has never been that workhorse arm that the Indians hoped he would be. Carrasco may be wearing down, as he’s been a shell of himself over the last month or so. I sold him on a hunch at the end of June and got a pretty big return on him, and it happened to pay off. Carrasco’s FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are all hovering at or above 4, walk rates are up, hard hit rates are up, and everything is pointing to a steep decline. Sell him while he still has ace value.
Bryce Harper: I know, I know. The obvious selection here. This sell high doesn’t necessarily apply to redraft leagues where his value is lower, rather to keeper leagues/dynasties where he’s still considered a top 5 option by most people. Harper is not who he was last year, odds are he’ll never get close to those numbers again. Harper’s first few seasons in the league were average. .270 with 25 HR and a few steals, and I believe that’s who he is. His exit velocity is way down from last year, pitches that left the yard last year are nothing but weak outs this season. His value last year was based strongly by his league leading ISO, an abnormality among his career numbers. He’s shown an inability to hit pitches up in the zone, and while a mechanical adjustment might help him return to a .270-.280 batting average, it’s not going to return him to 2015 Bryce Harper. That player is not who he is. Sell on the name to someone that believes he is that player, maximize the return and set yourself up for the future.
Joey Votto: I recommended Votto earlier in the season as a buy low candidate, and now’s the time to cash out. Votto’s BABIP over the last month is nearly .500, ISO is over .200, and nothing is in line with his career numbers. A guy in his mid 30s isn’t supposed to have a high BABIP, just look at Pujols, Beltre and Fielder. Playing on this reds team without Jay Bruce for protection isn’t going to help either. The power isn’t real, the .500 BABIP isn’t either, and lessened counting stars to back it up, Votto should command a good return.
