Fantasy Baseball:

~Streamers 7/25–7/31~

~Buy low/Sell high~

~Pitching streamers for week 16~

By Mike Cave

Welcome to week 16’s Streamer’s Delight! In this section, I will give 8–12 possible streaming pitcher options that are around or under 50% owned in ESPN leagues. My goal is to provide you with pitchers that I believe will give you a decent shot at a QS/Win or both, and in turn, hopefully hit two out of three streamers. Based on the QS/Win criteria, my last week’s record: 8–3 and ytd record: 45–21. *Note: some opposing pitchers and pitching dates are subject to change.

In order by date…

Ervin Santana MIN 7–26 (vs ATL, Harrell)

-If there’s ever a pitcher that will fool you over and over again, it’s Santana. Ervin is known to throw complete game gems against almost anyone and then lay down three straight lousy efforts against equally bad opponents. But here I am, taking a chance that Santana won’t have one of those letdown games…cross your fingers! Santana has impressed of late by tossing three QS out of his last four games, which also included one of those complete game shockers. Big Erv squares off against the lowly Braves which rank 27th in the Majors in batting average against righties. Santana, not known for a high strikeout ratio, could be in for a nice surprise. Don’t be shocked if Santana provides as high as a K per inning, but of course, proceed with caution here.

Matt Shoemaker LAA 7–27 (@KC, Duffy)

-This is actually a tough matchup for Shoemaker. The Royals aren’t known to strikeout a lot as a team, but aren’t particularly impressive overall on offense. The draw with Shoemaker in this scenario is that he’s coming off two straight QS and one of which was a complete game shutout of the White Sox. After a rough two game stretch versus the Red Sox and Orioles where he gave up eight total earned runs, Shoemaker seemed to settle down a bit by only giving up two earned runs over 15 ⅔’s innings during his last two starts. As a result of those few tough opponents, Shoemaker’s ownership percentage plummeted to under 50%…which opens a door for a nice waiver wire grab for whoever needs a solid pitcher. Shoemaker isn’t matchup proof, but he has nice k upside and should be able to go deep into games more times than not. I believe a QS is more of a realistic outcome than a W here, but I’d trust this streamer moving forward in most matchups.

Adam Conley MIA 7–27 (vs PHI, Eflin)

-One of the better young pitchers in the game today, yet one of the most frustrating streamers, Conley makes the list for week 16. We see flashes of upside throughout most starts from Conley, but we quickly get reminded why we can’t trust him on every outing. Conley sports a nice 3.58 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP; the only problem is his inconsistency. Only three QS in his last eight starts leaves potential owners hoping they can get a win out of Conley and we know that’s out of his hands. Conley faces off against one of the worst teams in the league, the Phillies, and he’s also at home where he has a slightly lower ERA (3.28). I’m trusting the matchup here and believe Conley has the potential to have one of his better games of the year.

Zach Eflin PHI 7–27 (@MIA, Conley)

-Eflin is a mystery to me. He starts off the 2016 season giving up eight earned runs and wasn’t able to get out of the third inning, albeit against the Blue Jays, but since then in seven games has tossed six QS (six straight). Although a very mediocre K rate, Eflin has been one of the better pitchers in the league over the last month, lowering his ERA from a crazy 27.00 to his current ERA of 3.40 I think the most stifling stat is that Zach has thrown two complete games over his last four starts…most pitchers fail to achieve one complete game, let alone two in your first eight starts! Eflin is a former first round draft pick, so we know he’s got talent, but I think he’s surprised everyone up to this point. I say ride the hot streak until comes back down to earth…whenever that may be.

Aaron Nola PHI 7–28 (@ATL, Teheran)

-This streamer is a bit tricky because he’s very talented and was almost universally owned about six weeks ago. Nola started the season off surprising almost everyone with how good he was pitching: almost a QS or W every time out alongside a stellar K rate. Well, it was nice while it lasted. Nola has absolutely stunk ever since June 11th. Nola had a string of four straight appearances without making it through the fourth inning. His earned runs during his last seven games are: 4, 6, 7, 5, 5, 0, 6. Other than the lone zero start, he’s been bad, real bad. So why trust a guy that is obviously struggling? The answer: the Atlanta Braves. Nola is undoubtedly a great young pitcher that should have success in the future as a possible #2 in most rotations. The Braves rank near the bottom in most offensive categories, so if Nola can’t get off the schneid here, he may be unusable for the foreseeable future.

Tyler Anderson COL 7–28 (@NYM, Degrom)

-One of the more consistent pitchers on the list this week, Anderson has impressed every step of the way this season. Virtually an unknown to start the season, Anderson has failed only twice to finish the sixth inning this season through his eight 2016 starts, and in each one of those two outings, he was one out away from earning a QS. Anderson has been no slouch by posting five QS in eight tries and that includes facing Toronto and San Francisco, two of the better teams in the Majors. Anderson gets the hit and miss New York Mets next Thursday, a team that is 25th in batting average vs. lefties — a matchup that I’m hoping Anderson can expose. Only issue with this streaming option is his mound opponent, Jacob Degrom. A win may be hard to come by, but Anderson should be able to hang in there and give his team a solid chance to compete.

Jeremy Hellickson PHI 7–30 (@ATL, Jenkins)

-Thanks to a mostly soft division, Hellickson makes the streamer list again. Hellickson has been excellent of late by completing at least six innings in each of his last eight starts…pretty good for a finesse type pitcher in this day in age! Jeremy has allowed only one earned run in four of his last five starts and thrown a QS in five of his last six. While he won’t overwhelm any owner with consistent strikeouts, Hellickson provides stability across the board and will rarely devastate your category team with bad numbers. Both of these teams are bottom of the barrel overall, but the Phillies have the advantage in the pitching area and that means runs should be a tad easier to come by for them. I believe Hellickson will thrive in this matchup and give owners exactly what they’re looking for in a streaming option: a QS and a more than fair shot at a W.

Jared Eickhoff PHI 7–31 (@ATL, Harrell)

-One of the better streamers in 2016, Eickhoff has put up mostly consistent numbers up to this point, but has struggled in July, posting a 6.38 ERA thanks to a trip to Coors field on 7/9. Most of Eickhoff’s struggles seem to come around the fourth to sixth innings, late second to third time around the batting order, so the hitters are adjusting and we need to see Eickhoff do the same or we may not see him grow into his potential. But I’m here to tout the young Phillies’ pitcher, not push him aside and one reason I’ve listed most of the Philadelphia rotation here is due to their outstanding matchup; and now Eickhoff gets his turn. The Braves rank near the bottom in nearly every major offensive category and most pitchers should be able to keep the Braves at bay, so I don’t see any reason why you and anyone else shouldn’t consider Eickhoff in this matchup.

Blake Snell TB 7–31 (vs NYY, Pineda)

-One of the most touted prospects to get called up in 2016, Snell was one of the few called up early in the season to make his debut and he impressed with a 5IP/1ER/6K line against the New York Yankees on 4/23. After that late April outing, Snell was sent back down to the minors for almost two months and once recalled, Snell has been a regular in the Rays pitching staff. Always known for a bit of wildness, the tall lefty has elite strikeout potential and we’ve witnessed that during his last two outings, not counting his start today (16 K’s over 12 innings, 1–1 with 2 QS). The rest of the season should be bumpy at times for Snell, but given the right matchup, we should be able to trust him. So far in seven starts in 2016, Blake holds a 3.11 ERA and 1.43 WHIP…the latter is worrisome, but with the recent trend, I think he could have a great second half of the season.

Some 50/50 options…

Jake Peavy SF 7–25 (vs CIN, DeSclafani)

-Most likely positive outcome…QS, W (moderate K upside)

Dylan Bundy BAL 7–27 (vs COL, Gray)

-Most likely positive outcome…W (nice K upside, low pitch count/innings limit beware)

Archie Bradley ARI 7–27 (@MIL, Nelson)

-Most likely positive outcome…W (nice K upside)

Mike Foltynewicz ATL 7–27 (@MIN, Duffey)

-Most likely positive outcome…QS (nice K upside)

Brandon Finnegan CIN 7–30 (@SD, Friedrich)

-Most likely positive outcome…W (moderate k upside)

Nathan Eovaldi NYY 7–30 (@TB, Smyly)

-Most likely positive outcome…W (moderate K rate)

Jameson Taillon PIT 7–30 (@MIL, Anderson)

-Most likely positive outcome…QS, W (moderate K rate)

Lucas Harrell ATL 7–31 (vs PHI Eickhoff)

-Most likely positive outcome…QS (moderate K rate)

~Week 16: Buy low/Sell high~

By Tyler Davis

Buy Low:

Aaron Nola: Nola is becoming painful to own. He’ll give you a good start to keep your hopes up and then slam them back down to reality with a string of terrible starts. Most people are ready to give up on Nola, but don’t be quick to share this mindset. Nola has been hindered by an unsustainable BABIP against of over .450 since the beginning of June, despite a ground ball rate of almost 60%. Couple this with a LOB% of under 60% and you’ve got an explanation for Nola’s struggles. Nola also has one of the lowest xFIP’s in the league at around 2.5, meaning that his 4+ ERA shouldn’t be anywhere near as high as it is. With buying low on Nola you run the risk of all of this not being a fluke, and simply him not being a good pitcher, but these numbers point towards a turnaround in the near future.

Ben Zobrist: Zobrist started off the season hot and anchored many lineups to first-half success. However, he began to decline just before the all-star break and has done nothing since to hint that he can repeat his first-half success. Upon further look though, Zobrist is in the midst of a streak of terrible luck. Over the last 30 days, Zobrist’s BABIP is a miniscule .134, or the lowest in baseball among qualified hitters by over 40 points. He’s still walking almost as much as he’s struck out, so there’s no reason to believe that any of his recent funk will carry over to the rest of the second half. Zobrist’s positional flexibility and good plate discipline are attributes to look for when trying to buy low on someone to help your team out in the stretch run.

Lance McCullers: McCullers is a different viewpoint than the other two buy lows, as FIP, xFIP, and most other sabermetrics aren’t factoring in to why I think he could be a top 20 pitcher in the second half of the season. In his last outing, McCullers had 41 pitches with over 3000 RPM, or revolutions per minute. McCullers had previously led the league in most pitches over 3000 RPM in games this season with two 29 pitch efforts, along with a 19 pitch effort, all of which have occured in his last 6 starts. For reference, the league batting average against pitches with 3000+ RPM is .152 (45 for 297). Couple this with McCullers elite ability to strike out hitters, and there’s a recipe for continued success through the remainder of the season much like he has shown recently. His price tag should be relatively cheap, as owner will point to his walks as a reasoning to his demise sooner rather than later.

Sell High:

Steven Wright: The Knucklepuck has been a surprise to most baseball fans this year, coming out of nowhere to dominate hitters throughout the first half on his way to being selected as an all-star. People will point to his last dominating start against the Twins as a good sign that he’s back on track after a string of rough starts, but there’s more to Wright’s regression than visible at first sight. Since the beginning of June, Wright’s swinging strike rate has taken a dive from over 10% in may to 9% in June and 8.5% in July thus far. Couple this with his control issues recently (almost 3 walks per 9 innings since the beginning of June, and his incredibly low HR/9 rate of .53 (pitching most of his games in Fenway, mind you), and you’ve got a recipe for disaster. We’ve seen this before in another knuckler, RA Dickey. Strikeouts go down, walks go up, and baseballs start leaving the ballpark and suddenly you’re nothing more than a possibly streamer against a good matchup. Sell now while he still demands a good return.

Cole Hamels: As a Hamels owner, his stats look great at first glance, but anyone who owns him can agree with me in saying that he is a very frustrating pitcher this season. He’ll have a dominating start with eight innings of three hit ball and then follow it up by getting shelled by Minnesota twice in three starts. I looked further into Hamels sabermetrics and it made more sense almost immediately. Hamels is walking 3.6 batters per 9 innings, which is near the top of the leaderboards in the MLB this season, among a bunch of pitchers who wouldn’t be owned in a 20 team league. However, he’s able to combat this with an elevated LOB rate of 83%, tops in the league, and a BABIP south of .290, which is 40 points lower than league average. Hamels has already started his regression and is getting closer to his xFIP of 4.03. Sell high before the wheels come flying off.

J.T. Realmuto: Realmuto was heralded as a sleeper before the season began due to having a bit of pop to couple with double digit steal potential. So far, he’s delivered on that potential, and has been red-hot for the better part of a month. However, this .312 batting average is completely unsustainable as it is buoyed by a BABIP north of .370. Realmuto is hitting less line drives and more pop ups in an attempt to get some more pop out of his swing, and still maintaining his batted profile for the most part. Unfortunately, his career BABIP is around .290, meaning that a regression to the mid .270s isn’t too difficult to foresee. When the BABIP falls, so too will his average, meaning that he will steal less bases, and essentially offer up nothing as far as counting stats go. Sell high on his steal potential, because no other catcher offers it.

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