Fantasy Baseball:
~Streamers 7/4–7/10~
~Buy low/Sell high~
~Pitching streamers for week 14~
By Mike Cave
Welcome to week 14’s Streamer’s Delight! In this section I will give around 8–10 possible streaming pitcher options that are around or under 50% owned in ESPN leagues. My goal is to provide you with pitchers that I believe will give you a decent shot at a QS/Win or both and in turn, hopefully hit two out of three streamers. Based on the QS/Win criteria, my last week’s record: 8–4, and ytd record: 32–14. *Note: some opposing pitchers and pitching dates are subject to change.
In order by date…
Matt Moore TB (vs LAA 7–4, Lincecum)
-Moore is more of a wildcard streamer because of his upside and matchup, but he’s been very use-able lately…putting up three QS in his last four outings while averaging a strikeout per inning during that same span. More intriguing are his home/road splits. On the year, Moore’s opponents are hitting .326 against him on the road and only .226 off of him at home. Overall, Moore has struggled this year, but his recent success and home/road splits point to him being a decent streamer this week.
Jared Eickoff PHI (vs ATL 7–4, De la Cruz)
-Six QS in his last nine games, Eickoff has pitched very well over the last two months, lowering his ERA a full run. Other than Arizona (faced them two out of the last three games), Eickhoff has been one of the most reliable streamers on the board. While he doesn’t hold major strikeout upside, he’ll provide quality innings and won’t have that blow up that many streamers usually show from time to time. He’s at home in this matchup against the lowly Braves, where he holds his opponents to a slim .236 average. I say stream Eickhoff with confidence here.
Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs ATL 7–6, Teheran)
-That’s three straight QS in a row against three tough matchups (SF, ARI, and KC). Hellickson has surprised many fantasy players this season by posting a respectable 4.06 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Hellickson squares off against the Braves at home where he should be able to pitch through six innings or so. Run support will usually be tough to come by since he does play for the Phillies, but the Braves don’t pose much of a threat on offense, so a low scoring affair could be in order. There’s not a lot of upside to Hellickson’s game, so he’ll most likely appeal to category league format rather than a points league format.
Danny Duffy KC (vs SEA 7–7, Paxton)
-Duffy has been on an absolute tear since joining the Royals rotation in late May. He’s pitched five QS out of his last seven starts, including back to back 8 inning/8 K performances (his most recent starts). Duffy has always had nice strikeout upside, but struggled quite a bit with his control when given a shot to be a starter in the past. However, control has been on his side this season: five out of his last eight starts he didn’t issue a single walk! Could we be seeing a turnaround from Duffy? A potential top 40 SP? I’m not ready to put him in that company quite yet, but if he continues down this path for another month, he might force his way into that discussion.
Daniel Mengden OAK (@HOU 7–8, McHugh)
-It’s gonna be hard for any rookie to beat what Mengden has done in three of his first four starts in the big leagues: throw three QS. Most young pitchers just coming up don’t get a chance to go that deep into games, but Mengden has been so efficient and convincing, his manager has let him cruise into and past the sixth inning. This week’s matchup with Houston has its good and bad sides. The top end of Houston’s lineup is potent, but overall the whole team K’s at a hefty rate. If Mengden can control his pitches, I think he can get through six with around one K per inning if not more. This streamer most likely plays better in a points league with no ER/Hit penalty.
Jon Gray COL (vs PHI 7–8, Velasquez)
-Other than a bump in the road against the Yankee’s on 6/22, in which he exited the game with a minor injury, Gray has been every bit of the ace he’s eventually projected to be in the majors. Gray has thrown seven QS over his last ten games, giving his fantasy owners a lot of confidence rolling into this matchup against a mediocre Phillies squad. The only downfall is that this game is being played in daunting Coors field, where balls tend to leave the field rather quickly. That being said, I still like Gray to hold off the light hitting Phillies enough to register at least a good chance at a W.
AJ Griffin TEX (vs MIN 7–10, Milone)
-Griffin isn’t one of the more exciting options on the slate this week, but he’s been good through his eight starts in 2016…limiting the opposition’s batting avg. to under .200 overall. So far he’s posting a 2.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, which says how tough Griffin can be on the mound. AJ has accumulated a decent strikeout ratio so far and is impressive considering his fastball sits around 88 mph. I’m thinking this streamer will most likely help out points league players based on the higher win percentage playing one of the bottom teams in the AL, Minnesota.
Junior Guerra MIL (vs STL 7–10, Leake)
-Guerra is coming off one of his best outings of the season by shutting down the Dodgers, throwing eight innings and giving up only four total base runners. Guerra has been a nice surprise in fantasy and in real life, posting a 3.25 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP since getting the call in early May. Guerra currently sports a 2.48 ERA at home, while only allowing opponents to hit .206 against him. St. Louis is no slouch on offense, but Guerra has the numbers to support him in this matchup.
Some 50/50 options…
Sean Manaea OAK 7–5 (@MIN, Milone)
-Most likely positive outcome…W (moderate K rate)
Bud Norris LAD 7–6 (vs BAL, Gausman)
-Most likely positive outcome…W (nice K upside)
Kevin Gausman BAL 7–6 (@LAD, Norris)
-Most likely positive outcome…QS, W (nice K upside)
Lucas Giolito WSH 7–8 (@NYM, Syndergaard)
-Most likely positive outcome…QS (moderate K rate)
James Shields CWS 7–10 (vs ATL, Foltynewicz)
-Most likely positive outcome…W (moderate K rate)
Tom Koehler MIA 7–10 (vs CIN, Reed)
-Most likely positive outcome…W (moderate K rate)
“Buy low/Sell high” for week 14
By Tyler Davis
We’re sitting at the halfway point of the season now; most analysts are set that at this point, most numbers are legit, and players likely won’t regress to their normal statistics or improve to their career averages. However, over the last few weeks we’ve seen Brian Dozier, Kendrys Morales, and Joey Votto start to either heat up or completely light it up. Looking deeper into the analytics side of things, hopefully we’ll find some potential studs to carry you to the playoffs in the second half of the season.
Buy Low:
Justin Upton:
For the better part of the first half this season, Justin Upton sported a 40% K-Rate and was among one of the worst hitters in baseball in nearly every way. Over the last month however, Upton has become more like himself and is performing up to the expectations where he was drafted. Recently, he’s hit a snag; his last handful of games have been rough and owners may be panicking to try to sell him before he slumps again. Upton’s ISO is nearly 100 points below his career average, which would make sense for someone that was older and past their prime, not a guy in his late 20s. His stats in June were close to his career numbers as well, this means Upton is nearing a hot streak with tons of home runs much like what Kendrys Morales is doing now. Take the opportunity to buy him before this streak starts.
Chris Archer:
Archer is another player that was drafted with high expectations. However, he’s largely disappointed with his inability to keep the ball in the yard along with walking way too many batters. Early in the season, Archer’s HR/FB% and BABIP against were through the roof, numbers that wouldn’t even be sustainable by the worst pitchers in the league. They’re still somewhat elevated, but Archer has shown that he still has his elite strikeout potential. His mechanics seem to be normalizing as well, and he’s done a better job of keeping the ball on the right side of the fence recently. This is more of a speculative buy, as his price is still relatively low. His strikeouts will still benefit you in most formats and even if he doesn’t turn it around, he won’t completely kill you.
Stephen Piscotty:
Piscotty is a bit different than the other two buy low suggestions because of his early season success. Over his last 30 games though, Piscotty is batting .217 and contributing almost nowhere. Most owners will probably see this as Piscotty normalizing back down to what should be expected of him, but digging a little deeper shows that Piscotty has been incredibly unlucky over the last month. His BABIP is .220, 15th lowest in all of baseball over that time. His walk rate and strikeout rate are normal, so this isn’t a slump of any kind. Over the last week, Piscotty’s BABIP is back up in the .280 range and is still climbing, so you may be running out of time to grab what was a top 20 outfielder in the first two months of the season.
Sell High:
Jason Hammel:
Hammel has been great for the majority of this season thus far, paying big returns to owners who didn’t invest very much into him. It’s worth noting that he did this exact same thing last season before completely collapsing in the second half and posting a 5+ ERA. Hammel has a FIP over 4 and a SIERA of almost 5, meaning that his ERA should balloon up somewhere in the 4.2 range. Strikeouts are down, walks are up, balls are leaving the park. He posted a 5+ ERA in June even though hitters had a .220 BABIP against him. Sell high if you still can; it’s only going to get worse from here.
Carlos Gonzalez:
I’ve seen CarGo as high as 5th among fantasy outfielders after his amazing first half. Everyone points to the Coors Field advantage for this, but even Coors can’t help him maintain a BABIP of almost .400. He may be able to keep up this homer pace, but if he gets traded out of Coors (there are several mentions of happening around social media), his value will completely free-fall. CarGo is a career .260 hitter on the road, inflated by a .330 average at home. Even if he doesn’t get traded, his value is at an all time high. Sell now before the wheels fall off.
Freddie Freeman:
Selling high on Freeman isn’t so much that this power surge isn’t something he can maintain, rather that his value this season will not be higher than it currently is. He plays in a pathetic lineup with almost no support. The 14 home runs are nice, but 31 RBI to go along with only 39 runs scored are downright putrid. This production is the equivalent of a player like JT Realmuto or Derek Dietrich batting .300 with almost nothing else of value being offered. It’s empty, but everyone likes the long ball. Sell high in a semi-weak position while Freeman is still surging.
Mike Cave (@caveman on the Fantasy life app)
Tyler Davis (@jedy on the Fantasy life app)
The Fantasy Life app is the best sports community app to talk fantasy football, basketball, baseball, hockey, soccer, WWE, MMA, Nascar, golf, eSports, or anything else you would hear about at a sports bar. Find or post funny memes, polls, GIFs, or join chats about your teams. Matthew Berry (ESPN, The Talented Mr. Roto), the face of fantasy football co-founded the app as a place for fans to chat about sports, get fantasy advice, or find sleepers for your team. Find Matthew on the app @matthewberry
Download the iPhone or Android app at fantasylifeapp.com. Also available in the App Store and Google Play.
