Fantasy Football Week 4 Start/Sit
Last Week:
Wide receiver quartet: J. Landry and A. Robinson — Win; D. Baldwin — Loss
Wide receiver quintet: Golden Tate, Cole Beasley, and DeVante Parker — Win
Running back trio: Frank Gore — Win; Tevin Coleman — Loss
Randall Cobb vs. Spencer Ware — Loss
Drew Brees vs. Philip Rivers — Win
Week Three Record: 7–3
Season Record: 8–8
Safety first.
That’s the rule that every child learns. By the time you’re old enough to think, you know that crossing the street without looking both ways or touching a hot stove or letting someone tie a seatbelt around your leg isn’t the right thing to do. (I actually found out that last one the hard way. As we say on the Fantasy Life App: Thanks @homemadememes (HomemadeMarc).) The point is that everyone is taught what to do and what not to do on the basis of safety. To some extent, every person in the world has some foundation of safety ingrained within them.
I consider myself to be a very safe fantasy football player. I drafted no shares of the unproven Ezekiel Elliot, the unlikely-to-repeat Devonta Freeman, or the ever-present injury risk Rob Gronkowski. Jamaal Charles instantly fell off my radar when I heard his recovery wasn’t going according to plan; Mr. Score-Eleven-Touchdowns-In-Five-Weeks Baldwin was not to be touched.
The draft is my favorite aspect of fantasy football, and it’s also the staple of fantasy on which I pride myself most. Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry especially advocates safety in the first two rounds, as those two picks are the most important in a draft. Succeed with your first two picks and expect a great season; fail and you might as well eat your year… because it’s toast. The old saying goes, “You can’t win your league in the draft, but you can lose it.” While that may be true, or pretty close to the truth, if you put enough effort into preparing for your draft — if you go above and beyond in your player analysis, if you know your leaguemates’ tendencies — you can open the season as a championship favorite, and assuming even semi-adequate management, you should be able to put yourself in a position to end the year victorious.
After all, that’s what I did last year. I won five of my six leagues, including enjoying my third victory in four years in my main league, becoming its first back-to-back champion. While there was a key David Johnson pickup here and a helpful trade for Latavius Murray there, I attribute most of my success to the draft.
That’s what I’m doing this year. Starting a combined 11–4 in my now five leagues, I attribute most of my success to the draft.
I attribute most of my success to safety.
Start/sit decisions are a different animal. While realizing the notion, I’m begrudgingly coming to terms with the fact that these weekly choices can’t always be settled accurately with the cautious pick. No assumptions can be made in fantasy football, no liberties taken. The truth is that draft day is long gone, and the projections we fantasy nuts made, the outlooks that we so hoped our favorite players could achieve… don’t matter. Fantasy football changes every week, every day, every hour, every second.
In season, there’s no such thing as safety. I won’t ever tell you to start Terrelle Pryor over Julio Jones, even though the former outscored the latter by 22.3 fantasy points last week. But I won’t play it safe, either.
@j cole asked: “McKinnon or Jordan Howard?”
Ever since the second drive of week three, the Chicago Bears have been trying to find a replacement for Jeremy Langford. By inserting Ka’Deem Carey so early into the game, John Fox and the Bears coaching staff made it clear that Langford’s 3.7 yards per carry (he averaged 3.6 yards per carry in 2014) wouldn’t be tolerated. Now, Langford will miss his second straight game due to an ankle injury and Carey is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s contest. That leaves fifth-round rookie Jordan Howard all alone in the Bears backfield, ready to become a true bellcow against the Lions. Not only was he impressive in Sunday night’s matchup against the Cowboys, but he also looked like a polished receiver out of the backfield. With close to twenty touches, Howard seems like a lock for volume and the smarter play in this situation. While Jerick McKinnon did receive ten more carries than Matt Asiata last week, there is more competition in Minnesota than in Chicago, and the Vikings will also take on a daunting Giants front four which has made New York the second best fantasy run defense so far this year. Finally, the Lions-Bears head-to-head figures to be a higher scoring matchup than the Giants-Vikings battle.
The Pick: Jordan Howard
@b21smitty asked: “PPR Cooper or Maclin?”
I wrote a bit about why I’d prefer to sit Jeremy Maclin this week, and especially considering Amari Cooper’s skill set and juicy matchup, the choice is clear. Maclin is actually one of my favorite buy low candidates, but I don’t anticipate a huge outing from him against a Steelers defense who has been the sixth best against opposing wide receivers thus far. In fact, the number one receivers on their respective teams who have played the Steelers so far (Washington: DeSean Jackson, Cincinnati: A.J. Green, Philadelphia: Jordan Matthews) have only averaged 53 yards per game against the Legion of Terrible Towels. (Is that name a thing? Because it should be.) Travis Kelce has a more favorable matchup than Maclin in this one. Cooper, on the other hand, will line up against a Ravens defense that let Allen Robinson go for 7–57–2 last week. Derek Carr’s favorite target, Cooper will get his no matter the matchup, and the second-year wideout figures to be the clearer play this weekend. Yet to get into the endzone, Cooper could be due for a score: Not only did Robinson score two touchdowns against the Ravens secondary, but so did Browns number one receiver (when healthy) Corey Coleman.
The Pick: Amari Cooper
@jesse3 asked: “Should I start Matt Jones or Ware as my RB2?”
No one knows what the Chiefs backfield will look like with the likely activation of Jamaal Charles. While I still expect Spencer Ware to receive the majority of the carries, an active Charles means a playing Charles; the Chiefs didn’t wait this long to use him as a decoy. He will be eased back into the Kansas City offense, but neither Charles nor Ware should have a fantastic name. Remove the disgusting attempt at rush defense against the Eagles last week, and the Steelers would have allowed an average of only 43 rush yards per game, which would rank first in the league. Even with the Philadelphia contest included, they still have the fourth ranked rush defense in the league; it’s the unpredictable touchdown that’s done them in fantasy wise: They’ve allowed five total touchdowns to the running back position. On the flipside, Matt Jones hasn’t been a sexy option, but he’s been alright. With increased carries and production in each game this season, he should take advantage of some extra volume against a poor Browns team that is sure to be losing for most of the game. In the bottom half of the league in rushing defense (as they are in most aspects of football. Sorry, Browns fans), Cleveland shouldn’t be able to put a stop to Washington’s offense, making Jones the play in this one.
The Pick: Matt Jones
@cbrice23 asked: “Brian Hoyer or Derek Carr this week?”
This question comes down to whether or not it’s overthought. Yes, Brian Hoyer is going up against the defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks while Derek Carr is facing the defense that has allowed the fifth fewest. Yes, Hoyer scored a full seven fantasy points more than Carr last week. I know what you’re thinking: If I say Hoyer, I’m looking too much into the matchup and one week’s worth of tape; if I say Carr, I’m playing it safe. Well, I say Carr, but it’s not a safe choice. I figure the surprising Ravens to put up some points, meaning that Carr will be forced to throw the ball. Even though the scoreboard didn’t indicate it, last week’s win over the Titans was a fairly straightforward one…. And Carr still threw 35 passes. Likely looking at 40+ attempts this week, the efficient quarterback should make the most of his opportunities, surpassing the often ineffective and mistake-prone Hoyer. The Lions’ numbers against quarterbacks are so inflated because they’ve played the likes of Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, as well as rushing threat Marcus Mariota. Hoyer will be a much easier test in a game that Detroit is sure to pressure the quarterback. The matchup is still more difficult for Carr, but he will come out on top.
The Pick: Derek Carr
@colbyflynn5053 asked: “Do I start Hunter Henry or Zach Miller?”
I will preface this answer by declaring that if Antonio Gates is active — which it doesn’t look like he will be, as he didn’t practice all week and is listed as doubtful — then Zach Miller is the play. However, with Gates likely out, rookie Hunter Henry, who, minus a costly fumble, looked very good last week against the Colts. It’s no secret that Philip Rivers adores the aforementioned Gates, but by an extension of the tight end position, the talented Henry has quickly found a nice niche in that offense. Improving upon his 5–72 stat line would be of no surprise. Zach Miller, coming off a strong 8–78–2 performance, has finally woken up, rising to TE5 on the year. His connection with Brian Hoyer is very evident, and he is the safer choice over the unproven Henry. Add in the fact that the Lions have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and he seems like a lock to put up quality numbers. The Saints — the lowly New Orleans defense — have allowed the sixth FEWEST fantasy points to opposing tight ends! And yet, throwing safety out the window, Henry is the play. San Diego will score a lot, moving up and down the field; Chicago will struggle with Detroit having a full week — and a complete game of tape on Hoyer — to prepare. Go against the grain and ride the youth: After all, it’s a young players’ league.
The Pick: Hunter Henry
Until next time, ask your start/sit questions to @cb on the Fantasy Life App and @CBRetweet on Twitter.
