Fantasy Life Week 10 Picks Against the Spread
Well, gambling sure can humble a person. One week it’s an undefeated 3–0 mark, and the next you’re breaking the bank with a 0-for-3.
Jacoby Brissett exited early during Indy’s 26–24 loss to the now-.500 Steelers, but if it were to be known that Brian Hoyer would complete better than 65 percent of his passes and throw to a 3:1 TD:INT ratio, many would have presumed Indianapolis emerged victorious. That kind of stat line will often get the job done, but Hoyer’s one interception proved disastrous, with Minkah Fitzpatrick’s 96-yard return touchdown swinging the outcome 10-to-14 points in Pittsburgh’s favor shortly before the half. Three drives later, on the Colts’ opening possession of the third quarter, Hoyer was sacked and stripped by Bud Dupree, with the Steelers recovering and proceeding to go on an 11-play go-ahead touchdown drive.
Still, somehow, the Colts found themselves with an opportunity to secure a win late by virtue of a 43-yard field-goal try, but Adam Vinatieri’s kick strayed way left and Pittsburgh got its fourth win of the season. That was the story of the week.
The Packers trip out west to Los Angeles was seemingly not “all business,” as Aaron Rodgers’ post-game comments about the team’s focus indicate that Green Bay was snoozing during a surprising 26–11 stinker against the Chargers. “We’ve got to be honest with our routine and the decisions we made in the last 48 hours, and make sure that our head is in the right place the next time we come on a big road trip,” said Rodgers.
The Browns? That was a tough one, too. The Broncos at no point looked like they would lose by four-plus points, leading from the 6:09 mark of the first quarter through the end of the contest. Cleveland is not making the playoffs, despite a schedule containing four combined matchups against the Dolphins, Bengals and Cardinals over the latter half of the year. Lesson learned. Stray from Freddie Kitchens, Baker and the Brownies for now, unless betting against them.
Season-To-Date: 11–9
Last Week: 0–3, L — IND (-1) 24–26 @ PIT, L — CLE (-4.5) 19–24 @ DEN, L — GB (-3) 11–26 @ LAC
Week 10 Picks
1. Seahawks (+6) @ 49ers
This is the final game of Week 10, but it’s listed first because it is my No. 1 confidence pick on the slate. San Francisco should win this game, at least on paper. As the last undefeated team remaining in the NFL, the 49ers possess the superior pass-rush, the better offensive line, and are playing at home against the inter-division rival Seahawks. What Seattle does have on their side, however, is MVP front runner Russell WIlson, who is boasting a 22:1 TD:INT ratio and finds himself on pace for more than 4,400 passing yards.
Seattle is a flawed team despite a 7–2 record to this point (ie., the choppy secondary and average-at best offensive line), but few coaches offer the skill and intuition of Pete Carroll. Plus, Wilson gives them a chance to beat anybody, and winning big games is simply a part of this franchise’s DNA. Granted, the game was in Arizona, but the Cardinals gave the 49ers everything they could handle last Thursday night — losing by just three points. The Seahawks can absolutely knock off the Niners here. But getting six points? C’mon. Seattle to keep it close, if not win, on Monday Night Football against the 49ers.
2. Bills (+3) @ Browns
In Baker we trust…that there are going to be two or three opportunities for the defense to generate turnovers. It’s been a rocky start to the Mayfield-Freddy Kitchens era. So rocky, in fact, that many analysts hypothesize the first-year head coach will be fired by season’s end. Mayfield’s confidence does not appear to be anywhere near the same level as when he was an Offensive Rookie of the Year consideration alongside Saquon Barkley, tossing 27 touchdowns to 14 interceptions and leading Cleveland to its highest win total since 2007. Mayfield still has the ability to be a winning quarterback in this league. The offensive line requires significant improvement and Kitchens perhaps is not the guy, but Mayfield is a Pro Bowl-level passer at his best and may one day lead Cleveland to its first playoff win since Bill Belichick beat the Patriots on New Year’s Day, 1995.
That is the future, however. Right now, the Bills defense is kicking ass and taking names. The secondary is suffocating. Led by Tre’Davious White, Buffalo ranks No. 3 in pass defense behind only San Francisco and New England, after last year giving up 15 fewer passing yards per game than any other team in the NFL. It’s going to be very challenging for Cleveland to put up points on the Bills’ third-ranked scoring defense, but Josh Allen and Buffalo’s offense has potential to compile 20-plus on the Browns. The Bills have averaged 22.7 points per game over their past three outings after putting up 18 points per game over the first five. Look to pick up the half point, if necessary, to get the spread to an even three, and take the superior Bills as road underdogs in a trip to the Factory of Sadness.
3. Cowboys (-3) v. Vikings
Taking the Cardinals (+4.5) on the road at Tampa Bay was a consideration here, but going with Dak Prescott and the Cowboys over Kirk Cousins’ Vikings seems like a more secure proposition. Both teams are uber-talented and would make the playoffs if the tournament was to start today — Dallas as the No. 4 seed and Minnesota as No. 6 — but each head coach finds himself on the hot seat coming into this Sunday night showdown of NFC heavyweights. Kellen Moore was praised as an offensive guru after the Cowboys got off to a 3–0 start and put up over 95 points against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, but over the ensuing three contests Dallas was held to fewer than 20 points per game and suffered losses to the Saints, Packers and Jets.
Dallas got off to a 3–5 start last year, though, so the early-season slump seems par for the course. Defense appears to be about even in this matchup, but the Cowboys get the boost of All-Pro talent Leighton Vander Esch being re-inserted into the lineup. Coaching appears to be about equal as well, with offensive-minded Jason Garrett going up against the defensive-oriented Mike Zimmer. The tilting point here is at quarterback. Prescott is typically a steady hand in high-leverage situations, but Cousins in a primetime game? On the road? Oh yeah, going hard in the opposite direction. Cowboys to win and cover, 27–23.
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