Fantasy Life Week 11 Picks Against the Spread
Donovan McNabb didn’t know it was possible to tie, and apparently neither did I. Over the course of the season, on both this column and my weekly podcast, I’ve mentioned how three is an ideal number of games to pick per week. Not too many picks that you’re stretched thin, not so few that you find yourself putting all your eggs in a single basket. No, with three picks you’re going to win or you’re going to lose.
Well last column’s picks resulted in a tie. Thank goodness we bought the half point on Buffalo. A 1–1–1 mark in Week 10 brings the year-long record to 12–10–1.
Our “pushing chips to the center of the table / throwing down the mortgage and college savings Pick of the Week” paid off, as the battle-tested Seahawks went into San Francisco and knocked off the undefeated 49ers. San Fran pounced out to a 10–0 lead and appeared on their way to a 9–0 start through the first quarter of play, but a Jadeveon Clowney 10-yard fumble return touchdown completely shifted the tenor of the game, with Seattle going on to score 15 more unanswered points from that point through the end of the third quarter. The 49ers would rally by chalking up 14 fourth quarter points to force overtime, but the Russell Wilson-led Hawks prevailed in OT by virtue of a 42-yard Jason Myers field goal as the clock expired.
Stephen Hauschka endured a nightmarish afternoon against the Browns in missing two field goals, one of which was a 53-yarder in the final 30 seconds that could have sent the game to overtime. Oh well. Had it gone to overtime, the Browns very well could have won the coin toss and scored a touchdown on the opening drive. Or Josh Allen could have thrown a pick-six. Disaster averted, we’ll take the push at +3 and walk away grateful that the half point jumped out as a worthwhile buy.
Then there’s the Cowboys. Oh, the Cowboys. Taking Dallas at -3 was built on the notion that the Cowboys are practically equivalent to the Vikings from a talent perspective, but the Dak Prescott-Jason Garrett duo is a more reliable option than Kirk Cousins and Mike Zimmer — at least for a big Sunday night game like this. Minnesota played the far cleaner game and dominated on the ground, giving the ball away zero times and running for 153 yards as a team. Ezekiel Elliot, meanwhile, was only able to accumulate 47 yards on 20 carries, while Brett Maher’s missed attempt on a 57-yard kick in the first quarter proved pivotal.
Season-To-Date: 12–10–1
Last Week: 1–1–1, W — SEA (+6) 27–24 @ SF, L — DAL (-3) 24–28 v. MIN, T — BUF (+3) 16–19 @ CLE
Week 11 Picks
1. Bills (-6) @ Dolphins
Ryan Fitzpatrick is vanquishing Miami’s once-presumed “Tank for Tua” campaign, leading these Bad News Phins to upsets of the Jets and Colts over the past two weeks. After the win against the Jets, you could see it. Miami had captured the first win of the Brian Flores era and it felt like the turning of a new leaf. Players suddenly filled with hope. Still, we have to remember that Miami has beaten the Jets and the Brian Hoyer-led Colts. Hoyer has thrown to an 8:8 TD:INT ratio in 18 appearances over the past three seasons, and owns a 1–11 record as a starter during that span. The Jets…. well the Jets are the Jets as we know. Gang Green lost the turnover battle, Sam Ficken missed his second field goal of the season, a ball was snapped out of the back of the end zone, Adam Gase had his infamous “crazy eyes” on full display, and Brick stabbed a guy with a trident. A classic afternoon for the Jets. All jokes aside, the Dolphins haven’t beaten anyone of significance yet this season.
The Bills have been somewhat of a Jekyll and Hyde team to this point. In spite of the inconsistency unveiled by last week’s loss to Cleveland, however, Buffalo nevertheless possesses the defensive fortitude to not only make the playoffs, but potentially even steal one on the road if they can get the No. 5 seed and avoid a Baltimore or Kansas City in Round 1. A projected uptick in urgency helps Buffalo’s case for this inter-division matchup, and the Bills have proven capable of beating up on cellar dwellers thus far in 2019 — defeating the Giants, Dolphins and Redskins by an average of 13 points per game.
2. Ravens (-4) v. Texans
Playing Baltimore these days is like walking into a buzz saw. Against the Seahawks, Patriots and Bengals over their past three matchups, the Ravens have won by a 67 combined points. They also own six victories of a touchdown or more, as well as four wins of 14-plus points thus far in 2019. Houston’s secondary to struggle, with opposing quarterbacks having thrown for 270-plus yards against them in five consecutive outings. To make matters worse, neither Tashaun Gipson (back) or Bradley Roby (hamstring) has made an appearance since Oct. 20, and each defensive back enters this contest with a questionable designation. Even more devastating, J.J. Watt remains on the shelf for the remainder of the season after suffering a torn pectoral during Houston’s Week 8 win against the Raiders.
Lamar Jackson is, of course, playing at an MVP level. Through Baltimore’s first nine games of the year, he finds himself on pace to throw for a 27:9 TD:INT ratio. More impressively, Jackson is on trajectory for more than 1,240 rushing yards — a mark that would exceed Michael Vick’s all-time quarterback record of rushing yards in a single season by more than 200 yards.
Houston is going to put up some points. With Deshaun Watson at the helm, it seems like they always do. The Texans have scored 23-plus points in five straight games, and are averaging 32 points per game since Week 5. Though Baltimore’s current defensive arrangement is far from being its most dominant in franchise history, this remains a frisky bunch that can take the ball away (tied for 10th in that department with 14 total turnovers forced). At home in Week 11, Baltimore will force Houston to cough up the rock once or twice in key spots, and cover the spread by a narrow margin. Ravens 28, Texans 23.
3. Saints (-5.5) @ Buccaneers
These Saints are going to be angry coming into Raymond James Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Following a 7–1 first half to their 2019 redemption campaign (New Orleans’ second “redemption campaign” in as may seasons), the Saints emerged from their Week 9 bye and laid an egg against a 1–7 Falcons bunch. Sean Payton’s group was coming off a bye, favored by 13 points at home, and ended up losing by 17 points to one of the most disappointing Falcons teams in recent memory.
As the old motto goes, “Keep it simple, stupid.” Tampa Bay has been better than expected thus far in 2019, especially when it comes to the Bucs’ No. 1 rush defense, but it’s best to not out-think the room on this one. The Saints remain a blue blood NFC Championship contender, and this line of -5.5 seems over reactive to a fluky loss to Atlanta. The Bucs are going to have immense difficulty running against an almost-equally stout Saints rush defense (fifth in that category), and when “Famous Jameis” Winston puts the ball in the air with high frequency, it’s inevitable that the opposition is going to be coming down with a takeaway or two. Saints to get back on track, and win by a touchdown on the road against their divisional rivals. New Orleans 31, Tampa Bay 23.
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