Fantasy Life Week 12 Picks Against the Spread
Last week was a boom, our second 3–0 mark over the past five outings. Upon closer inspection, however, there is reason for skepticism. Just consider these weekly finishes — Week 8: 3–0, Week 9: 0–3, Week 10: 1–1–1, Week 11: 3–0. Based on that pattern, after a 3–0 week, here comes the 0-for-3 bomb! Run for the hills! Hopefully we can break that cycle and record our third consecutive .500 or better performance in Week 12.
Taking the Bills (-6) on the road against the Dolphins was our headliner in Week 11. Buffalo — a legitimate playoff team — taking on lowly Miami in an inter-divisional matchup seemed like a can’t-miss proposition. That proved to be the case indeed, as it was a convincing, coast-to-coast win for Bills Mafia. Once Buffalo established a 13–0 lead early in the second quarter, Miami was never able to close the margin to within one possession, ultimately falling by 17 points. Give the Dolphins credit, though, as that 17-point loss was their worst defeat since playing the Chargers Sept. 29. Between Weeks 1 and 4, Miami lost by an average of 34.3 points per game. Since, they’ve actually won twice, and lost by an average margin of 10.3 points per game in their four most-recent defeats.
Baltimore, meanwhile, just keeps rollin’. It feels like there’s been a shift in the MVP chatter this week, as Lamar Jackson seemingly surpassed or pulled even to Seattle’s Russell Wilson by virtue of his dominant four-touchdown outing in the 41–7 blowout of Houston. Since Week 6, Jackson has thrown to a 8:0 TD:INT ratio, while rushing for 94.6 yards per game and scoring an additional five times on the ground. He remains on pace to break Michael Vick’s single-season QB rushing record (1,039) by over 200 yards. Wilson is probable to finish the season with the better passing numbers, as his 23:2 TD:INT ratio on the season is utterly ridiculous, and his 274 passing yards per game surpass Jackson’s average by nearly 50.
We went NO (-5.5) with pick No. 3. The Saints predictably boat raced Tampa Bay off its own field last Sunday, establishing a 20–0 advantage by the 5:10 mark of the second quarter, and closing the deal with a 55-yard interception return TD from Marcus Williams late in the fourth. New Orleans’ 34–17 win over the Bucs provided them a three-game cushion over the rest of the pack in the NFC South — tied with Baltimore for most dominant division lead through 11 weeks of play.
Season-To-Date: 15–10–1
Last Week: 3–0, W — BUF (-6) 37–20 @ MIA, W — BAL (-4) 41–7 v. HOU, W — NO (-5.5) 34–17 @ TB
Week 12 Picks
1. Lions (-3) @ Redskins
Buy the half point here if need be, and go ahead and get yourself some of the Lions’ share. It’s D-troit going on the road to FedEx to take on the Redskins. So what we’ve got a backup quarterback playing for the Lions, Detroit has the advantage in most every other roster and coaching category in this matchup. Scoring offense? Advantage Detroit, No. 10 in the NFL compared to the Redskins’ dead-last output of 12.5 points per game. Turnover ratio, Lions again (+1 to -2). Red Zone conversion rate — Detroit scoring TDs on 60.7 percent of Red Zone drives (14th) versus Washington’s No. 31 showing of 35 percent. Where Washington does have an advantage is going up against the Lions’ 30th-ranked pass defense, but it’s apparent the Redskins do not have the personnel to exploit such a weakness. Folks, we’re talking about an offense that went 19 consecutive quarters without a touchdown, before a screen pass to Derrius Guice went for a 45-yard junk-time touchdown against the Jets last Sunday. Former Gator Jeff Driskel has been making some plays on the other side for Detroit, last week racking up 260 scrimmage yards and three total touchdowns as the Lions fell by eight points to the supremely-talented Cowboys. Driskel to get his second career win as a starter, and the Lions to snap their three-game losing streak and cover the three-point spread, 22–16.
2. Raiders (-3) @ Jets
You worry about the west-coast Raiders going east for the day game, but Oakland has proven that it’s a legitimate playoff challenger under the tutelage of Jon Gruden. It’s not like the Raiders haven’t been on the road this season, they had to go six weeks without playing a home game already this season, emerging with a 3–4 record and then proceeding to win three straight in the Black Hole against the Lions, Chargers and Bengals over the past three weeks. Derek Carr’s career has been revitalized in a second year under Gruden, with the 28-year-old quarterback throwing to a much-cleaner 15:5 TD:INT this season, after tossing 10 picks to just 19 touchdowns last year. Sam Darnold and the Jets look to have a new lease on life themselves, taking back-to-back games against the Giants and Redskins after winning just once all season prior to Week 10. What New York does have playing in its favor is the NFL’s No. 1 rush defense, but the Jets also ranks second-worst in rush offense. Oakland is anything but a one-dimensional offense (ninth rushing, 14th passing), and have huge motivation to win this game. With a win, the Raiders can maintain themselves as the No. 6 seed in the AFC with five games to go, or potentially even pull even with the Chiefs atop the West at 7–5 (though KC would own the tiebreaker having won head-to-head earlier this season). Raiders to win in Week 12, 27–21 on the road against Gang Green.
3. Ravens (-3.5) @ Rams
Just keep riding the wave. This was another game where buying a half point became a consideration, but doing that with high frequency cuts margins and Baltimore has proven capable of blowing teams out anyway. Led by Jackson, they’ve proven capable of convincingly beating playoff-caliber teams. Houston by 34, New England by 17, Seattle by 14. Yikes. The Rams are still capable of getting on a run and getting back to the NFC Championship Game, of course. This team is as talented as any in the league when at full strength, and if Sean McVay can learn to develop a third and fourth offensive pitch in response to the league’s adjustment to his genius, they’ll be right back in the mix in late January. All that was nice, nice… “best-case scenario”-type talk regarding LA. It’s been a disappointing season in many ways. Jared Goff’s deal looks highly overpriced, Todd Gurley is clearly not the same player he once was, and the Rams find themselves as the third-best team in their own division. The Ravens are an unstoppable force and the Rams just don’t have the “oomph” required to halt the runaway freight train that is Baltimore. Ravens to go on the road on Monday Night Football, and cover the 3.5-point spread against the Rams.
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