Fantasy Life Week 13 Picks Against the Spread
The Ravens have our back. We’ve rolled with Baltimore the past two weeks against Houston and LA, and each time we have emerged with a profit. Not only are the Ravens going out and winning ball games, they are absolutely drubbing people. Since eeking out a 23–17 win over Cincinnati on Oct. 13, the Ravens have gone on to win their past five games by an average of 28 points per game. And they aren’t sneaking in a late-season matchup against Western Carolina, either (ahem, Alabama). Baltimore has been beating up on legitimate contenders — Seahawks by two touchdowns, Patriots by 17, Texans by 34, the defending NFC Champions by 39. Yup, these Ravens are pretty good. We will see you guys in late January. Watching them take on the 49ers this week will be a fascinating matchup. It feels like these were the last two Super Bowl contenders that analysts were willing to get behind in 2019 — Baltimore with its supposed “run-first” quarterback (when has that worked in the NFL?), and San Francisco benefitting from a soft early-year schedule to become the NFL’s last remaining undefeated squad at 8–0. We’ve since learned that each team is very much for real. But in terms of a line to put money on this week? Ravens minus-six at home feels like a stay-away game, despite recent success in rolling with the purple and black.
Our other two picks from Week 12 were wide of the mark — one far more so than the other. We were well situated for the cover on Detroit minus-three at Washington, with the Lions in possession of the ball, up three points with 7:30 to go in the fourth quarter. Then Jeff Driskel happened. The Lions went three-and-out and allowed the Redskins to tie the contest with a field goal at the 3:42 mark. OK, so no big deal, Driskel’s going to lead Detroit down for a late field goal, and we can at least push, right? Wrong. Driskell threw interceptions on each of the Lions’ final two offensive possessions to allow Washington to take a three-point lead, and ultimately ice the game with a couple QB kneel downs. The tide had shifted so drastically — and the Redskins had become so comfortable by game’s end — that franchise quarterback Dwayne Haskins was seen capturing selfies with fans rather than taking the game’s final snaps from victory formation.
The Raiders pick (-3, playing on the road against the Jets), was a disaster from the jump. This is like a situation when you go into the doctor’s office and have your symptoms misinterpreted — culminating in your taking of a completely pointless medicine before realizing you were misdiagnosed. This pick was a misdiagnosis, too, as Derek Carr’s cold-weather struggles persist. Call me a quack, but, hey, at least this segment’s record sits above .500 as we head into the final five weeks of regular-season play.
Season-To-Date: 16–12–1
Last Week: 1–2, W — BAL (-3.5) 45–6 @ LAR, L — DET (-3) 16–19 @ WSH, OAK (-3) 3–34 @ NYJ
Week 13 Picks
1. Colts (-1) v. Titans
Typically AFC South contests are a no-go. The four teams in this grouping are more similarly constructed than any other collection of division contestants in the NFL, and they can be wildly unpredictable week-to-week — especially when playing one another. If there’s a matchup to be exploited, however, it may just be Indy-Tennessee. Frank Reich has owned Mike Vrabel and the Titans since taking over as the Colts’ head man, and boasts a dominant record when his team is playing at home. Indianapolis is 10–3 at Lucas Oil Stadium since the start of last season, and Reich’s Colts are 3–0, with an average 15.3-point margin of victory when playing Vrabel’s Titans. Red-hot Ryan Tannehill quarterbacking for Tennessee provides reason for reconsideration, as he’s compiled a 10:4 TD:INT ratio and has the Titans sitting at 4–1 since he took over as the starter. We also are getting no T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack or Eric Ebron on the Colts side. What we are getting is the vastly-underrated Jacoby Brissett, the elite Darius Leonard at full strength, as well as one of the best offensive lines in the game at home in a virtual “pick em.” Taking Indianapolis here to win a slugfest, 23–20 over the Titans.
2. Patriots (-3*) @ Texans
Pick up the half point if necessary and take the Patriots on the road, eating three points against the paper tiger Texans. Houston is a pretty good team, and can occasionally surprise in a big game like this. Some chapters that come to mind include the 38–41 road loss to Seattle during Week 8 of Deshaun Watson’s rookie year, a thrilling game against New Orleans on Monday Night Football to open up 2019, and most impressively, a Week 6 over the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs on Oct. 13. Overwhelmingly, however, Bill O’Brien, Watson and the Texans have clammed up under the bright lights. O’Brien is 1–3 in the postseason and Watson 0–1. Two weeks ago in a big game against the Ravens, they got absolutely boat raced. Inept offensively and offering no answers on the defensive end, Houston fell 41–7 to a Baltimore team that they will surely have to go through in January if there is to be any chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. The Texans have played New England close over the past two seasons (losses of three and seven points) but own at an 0–4 record against the Patriots since 2016, losing by an average of 13.8 points per game in those contests.
3. Jets (-3.5) @ Bengals
To wrap up Week 13 we’re taking the smoking hot Jets to cover 3.5 points on the road against the lowly, lowly Bengals. Oh what a tortured fan base. To own a 5–14 postseason record and only one Super Bowl appearance in 52 seasons of existence. To reach the playoffs five consecutive years between 2011 and 2015 and suffer Wild Card round defeats in each instance. To turn the leaf with Sean McVay protege Zac Taylor, only to rattle off 11 straight defeats to begin his tenure as head coach. It’s been brutal. But the good news is that Cincinnati can start over next season with the franchise quarterback of their choosing, so long as they keep losing. Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovoiloa, Justin Herbert…. take your pick, Bengals. But for the love of God, please do not get on a late-season run and cost a ticket in the lottery. No worries there, the Bengals have suffered their last eight defeats by an average of 13.3 points, and have lost by less than six points only once during that span.
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