Fantasy Life Week 7 Picks Against the Spread
It was a light round of picks last week, as we only rolled the dice on two matchups — Titans as two-point road underdogs visiting the Broncos, and the Jets (given 7.5 points) hosting the Cowboys at MetLife Stadium.
Both games were in the 4 PM EST window, so we were chomping at the bit until then. Thankfully, the Jets paid out — pouncing on Dallas with three first-half touchdowns, and establishing a 21–6 lead heading into the locker room. As anticipated, Adam Gase uncovered some wrinkles to the playbook with Sam Darnold returning from his three-game, mononucleosis-induced absence. Pertaining to the long-term vitality of the Gang Green offense, perhaps nothing was more encouraging than the Darnold-Robby Anderson connection, as the two co-authored a 92-yard touchdown on the team’s fifth offensive drive of the afternoon. They also drew a 20-yard pass interference penalty on Dallas cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, and hooked up for an 18-yard completion in the fourth quarter that helped put Sam Ficken in range for a field goal that pushed the Jets’ lead to eight points with under four minutes to go. The Boys were resurgent in the second half by tallying two touchdowns of their own, but a late two-point conversion attempt intended for Jason Witten fell incomplete, as New York escaped with its first regular-season win of the Gase-Darnold era.
Meanwhile, in regards to the Broncos-Titans game… our forecast was “just a bit outside” (to reference the great Major League). Tennessee was not able to get the ground game established at all, with the Broncos conceding a meager 39 team rushing yards to the Titans on 21 attempts. We mentioned last week how Marcus Mariota entered the game with a 7:0 TD:INT ratio on the season… yeah, well, that didn’t hold up either. He was sacked three times, completed a shade under 40 percent of his passes, and was intercepted twice by a Broncos defense that had managed to force only two picks through its first five outings of the year. Denver ultimately blanked Tennessee 16-zip, bringing our 2019 Picks-Against-the-Spread record to 6–5 as we roll into Week 7.
Season-To-Date: 6–5
Last Week: 1–1, W — NYJ (+7.5) 24–22 v. DAL, L — TEN (+2) 0–16 @ DEN
Week 7 Picks
1. Rams (-3) @ Falcons
The Falcons are shot. The head coach is a defensive guy, and Atlanta’s defense has been, for the most part, getting lit up routinely since Week 3 of last season. That is when the injuries started to mount. Keanu Neal (ACL) had already gotten knocked out in the season opener against Philadelphia, Deion Jones was it the midst of a 10-game absence from a broken foot and Ricardo Allen suffered a torn Achilles against the Saints. The rest of 2018 was an absolute train wreck defensively. Grady Jarrett was really good as usual, and Damontae Kazee tied Kyle Fuller and Xavien Howard with an NFL-best seven interceptions, but otherwise the Falcons D was exposed — ranking 27th against the pass, 25th against the run and 25th in scoring. Okay, so reset over the offseason. Dan Quinn becomes the first head coach since 1989 to have all three of his coordinators fired and maintain his own job. Quinn takes over defensive play calling for Marquand Manuel. A fresh start!
Nope. This year has been a disaster, too. Keanu Neal went down again, this time with an Achilles. Second-year cornerback Isaiah Oliver has been underwhelming. The unit is tied with Miami for an NFL-worst five sacks. Oh yeah, and this week they are facing the defending NFC champions. Los Angeles is coming off three consecutive losses and gets Todd Gurley back this week. There’s also the blockbuster acquisition of Jalen Ramsey, a move that figures to be a huge mood shifter in the Rams’ favor.
Atlanta has given up 87 points over the past two weeks, and it’s likely the Rams are going to be capable of putting up points in the dome. Conversely, expect the Falcons offense to get their shots in, but for the Rams to get two or three stops in key second-half situations. They do after all, have two $100 million guys on their defense now, as Aaron Donald is starting to heat up, coming off a two-sack outing last week. Rams to cover the three points here.
2. Colts (-1) v. Texans
The Texans are an expensive play right now, with four wins over the past five weeks and MVP buzz continuing to build around Deshaun Watson. That lofty recognition is well deserved, as Watson has three outings thus far this season with 265-plus passing yards and three or more touchdown throws. In his other three outings, however, he’s averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game, with just one combined touchdown pass in Weeks 2, 4 and 6.
Frank Reich is a great coach, and the Colts are coming off a bye. Such a situation favors Indianapolis, who has taken four of the past five games in this AFC South series with Houston, and eight of their last nine home games overall. Darius Leonard (concussion), the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year, is expected to return from a three-game absence. Jacoby Brissett is playing really clean football, as exhibited by his 10:3 TD:INT ratio and a so-far career-best 64.7 percent completion rate. This line is slightly disrespectful to the Colts, who are basically a “pick ‘em” at -1. Let’s take the sharp side in Indy, it’s Colts to get the W and take hold of the division lead.
3. Giants (-3) v. Cardinals
Cardinals are looking “pretty, pretty good” (Larry David voice). But one has to wonder, who have they played? The Cards tied Detroit by virtue of a three-possession fourth-quarter comeback in Week 1, escaped Cincinnati with a three-point win in Week 5 and last Sunday was a Matt Bryant extra-point miss from going to overtime for the second time in six games.
We’ve got a dome, warm weather team going east, with the hometown Giants getting some of its game-breaking offensive weapons back in the fold. Sterling Shepard will miss another game due to a concussion, but Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Evan Engram (knee) are both cleared to play Sunday against Arizona’s horrific defense. Against opponents that have at least two wins this season (sorry Bengals and Dirty Birds), the Cardinals are losing by an average of nearly 14 points per game. Big Blue should be energized, for the first time showcasing their franchise quarterback and running back on the field at the same time, while playing at home. G-Men to get it done at home and stay alive in the NFC East race. Giants 31, Cardinals 20.
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