Fantasy Life Week 8 Picks Against the Spread
It was a “get right” situation in Week 7, as we reverted to our winning ways with a 2–1 finish after posting a 1–1 mark the outing prior.
We leaned on three early-afternoon matchups to get things kickstarted, taking the Rams as three-point favorites at Atlanta, rolling with Indy in a virtual “pick ‘em” game (-1) at home, as well as the Giants (-3) hosting the Cardinals.
Things have gone from bad to worse in Atlanta as the Falcons dropped their fifth straight game last Sunday, now putting the team’s record at 8–15 since the start of 2018. Julio Jones apparently had an emotional postgame speech in the wake of the lopsided defeat, imploring his teammates not to blame coach Dan Quinn for the recent struggles. That came three weeks too late, as the Falcons are now buried in the NFC South and trading off assets left and right with playoff hopes out the window. Now it’s the big, bad Seahawks rolling into town — a team that has never posted a losing record with Russell Wilson as its quarterback, and seems like the potential No. 1 team in the conference. What’s even worse is that this is one of the more prolific offenses Seattle has ever assembled, and Atlanta is getting absolutely torn up defensively.
The Colts pick paid dividends as well. Houston made things interesting with a fourth-quarter touchdown to cut Indianapolis’s lead to five points, but the Colts led wire to wire, with a first quarter Jacoby Brissett touchdown pass providing a lead that Indy would never relinquish. In retrospect, this may have been our safest pick — taking the side with a great coach coming off a bye, facing an interdivisional rival that the Colts have historically dominated. The 30–23 margin gives Indianapolis its fifth win in its last six tries against Houston.
The Giants (-3) let us down, as Daniel Jones threw a pick and lost two fumbles against a Cardinals defense that previously had forced just three takeaways over its first six appearances of the year. West coast team travelling east? Often a sure bet, but not with this Cardinals bunch. They’ve been feasting on cellar dwellers (wins over Cincinnati, Atlanta and the Giants the past three weeks), but Arizona has, irregardless, pushed its record to 3–3–1 — tying its 2018 win total with over half the regular-season slate remaining. Up now, though, the Cardinals have to face off against the buzz saw that is the New Orleans Saints.
Season-To-Date: 8–6
Last Week: 2–1, W — LAR (-3) 37–10 @ ATL, W — IND (-1) 30–23 v. HOU, L — NYG (-3) 21–27 ARZ
Week 8 Picks
1. Seahawks (-6.5) @ Falcons
We’re going to confront a lot of seven-point spreads with this one, but it’s worth purchasing a half point to make this a win-lose proposition. Instead of a “push” if Seattle were to win by exactly seven, we are going to pick up the W and rake in some coin. It’s all about Matt Ryan’s (ankle) health here. The 2016 MVP enters Week 8 with a questionable designation after being forced to exit last Sunday’s loss. There has been conjecture floating around that he may be able to go, but Ryan looked significantly hobbled when he was walking off the field last weekend. Even if he does go, he’s unlikely to be at 100 percent.
If he can’t go… woah, boy are the Falcons in trouble. Backup quarterback Matt Schaub hasn’t started a game since 2015, and has not played a full season since 2012. He’s a two-time Pro Bowler, sure. He had some great moments with Houston during his seven-year run as “the guy.” But expect Schaub to be rusty if he is, in fact, forced into the lineup Sunday. He has attempted 106 passes since 2014. That’s 23.5 pass attempts per season, folks.
It’s not like this Dirty Birds defense can bail them out, either. The Falcons are giving up more than 41 points per game over the past three weeks, and will be without two starters in the secondary as Keanu Neal (Achilles) and Desmond Trufant (toe) are both out for this matchup. That is bad, bad news because Russell Wilson is a bad, bad man. He’s an MVP frontrunner through seven weeks, boasting more than 275 passing yards per game with a 15:1 overall TD:INT ratio.
2. Chargers (+4) @ Bears
Bears coach Matt Nagy said this week, “I’m not an idiot, I know we have to run more.” You’re damn right you have to run more! This Tru-biscuit guy is a nightmare! Also, Chicago — how about we go out and trade for Andy Dalton? Not exactly the standard of excellence these days, but a competent veteran who would give the Bears a better chance to compete for a post-season berth.
I’m taking Nagy at his word that he is not an idiot, and instead believe that he is one of the brighter offensive minds in the NFL. Trubisky has just been far too inaccurate in key moments to succeed consistently this year.
Following a hugely disappointing 2–5 start to 2019, many forget that the Chargers were a 12-win team a year ago, and very well could have secured home-field advantage in the AFC had they not dropped a Week 16 game to Baltimore. They have Melvin Gordon back in the fold, and the Bears have amazingly given up the eighth most PPR points per game to opposing running backs this season. Oh yeah, and that Austin Ekeler guy… he may make a play or two Sunday afternoon as well. Additionally, the Chargers have been playing teams relatively tough despite what the record may say, never losing by more than seven points this season, and suffering an average 5.4-point margin of defeat in their five losses. Los Angeles has lost three straight, so we’ve got to expect the veteran team to bounce back here, right? Even if they don’t, a tight loss is still a win, as we’re catching four points taking the Chargers on the road.
The Bears’ defense was ferocious through the first four weeks of the season in allowing just 11.3 points per game between Weeks 1 and 4, but over the past two outings Chicago has surrendered 60 combined points to the Raiders and Saints.
3. Dolphins (+14) @ Steelers
Big lines are generally risky. You’re looking at a double-digit spread and expecting the juggernaut to cover, but know that a late, junk-time touchdown from the underdog can ruin your day. The thing is, Pittsburgh is not a juggernaut at this stage. Clearly the Dolphins are “tanking for Tua,” but the Steelers are unlikely to be pulling away from opponents with Mason Rudolph or Devlin “Duck” Hodges leading the offense. Miami has been playing teams much closer of late, too, losing by a total of 11 points to the Redskins and Bills over the past two weeks after losing by 34.3 points per game between Weeks 1 and 4.
Ryan Fitzpatrick kept Miami competitive last week against a seemingly playoff-bound Buffalo squad, and now will face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NFL with 244.2 passing yards allowed per game. The chief concerns here would be that the Steelers are coming off a bye and have a distinct advantage in turnover margin (+7 to the Dolphins’ -11), but getting the 14 points on Miami is too tempting to pass up given that the team hasn’t been close to losing by that amount in four calendar weeks. Steelers to win, but Dolphins to cover — 26–13.
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