Fantasy Life Week 9 Picks Against the Spread
A 3–0 mark in Week 8 brings the season-long record to 11–6 as the calendar turns to November and the playoff picture begins to come into focus. Last Sunday, buying the half point on Seattle proved to be the right play, as the Seahawks (-6.5) escaped with a 27–20 win over Atlanta. Los Angeles covered (+4) with reasonable comfort as Eddy Piñeiro pulled one left in the waning moments to keep the Chargers’ season alive at 3–5. The Miami pick (+14), meanwhile, looked really good through the first quarter of Monday night’s game against Pittsburgh. The Dolphins ended up blowing a 14-point lead, but they were capable of sneaking us under the line with a 27–14 loss.
Season-To-Date: 11–6
Last Week: 3–0, W — SEA (-6.5) 27–20 @ ATL, W — LAC (+4) 17–16 @ CHI, W — MIA (+14) 14–27 @ PIT
Week 9 Picks
1. Colts (-1) @ Steelers
The Colts are playing some really clean, efficient football these days, and come in to Heinz Field having won five of their past six games. Jacoby Brissett, specifically, has exceeded expectations somewhat, boasting a 14:3 TD:INT ratio with a career-high 64.5 percent completion rate. The Steelers defense, meanwhile, ranks Bottom 12 in passing touchdowns allowed per game entering this contest and has dropped from first to 13th in team sacks. Indy’s O-line ranks fourth in the NFL with just 11 sacks surrendered, after finishing No. 1 in that category during 2018. Despite owning a 5–2 record and sitting atop the AFC South standings entering Week 9, Indianapolis actually owns the worst point differential in the division at +7. The Colts haven’t record a two-possession win all season, with their largest margin of victory being the seven-point win over Houston in Week 7. Here, however, we are getting them as essentially a “pick ‘em” option, going up against a Pittsburgh team that allowed Miami to jump out to a 14-zip first-quarter lead at home on Monday Night Football. The Steelers were able to blank the Dolphins 27–0 from the second quarter on, but this group hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record all season. Colts to win a close one on the road, 20–17.
2. Browns (-4.5) @ Broncos
The Broncos have lost by a last-minute field goal in three of six defeats thus far in 2019, so taking the slumping Browns at -4.5 seems counter-intuitive at first glance. But considering that Joe Flacco (neck) is now on injured reserve and Brandon Allen will be taking his first regular-season snaps against a Myles Garrett-led Cleveland front seven, we have reason to investigate further. Denver has nothing to play for. This group has been crushed by injury, overly-conservative offensive play calling in key situations, and poor showings in both team penalties (21st) and turnover differential (22nd). The Browns, on the other hand, are fighting to rebound from a 2–5 start and get back in the playoff mix by virtue of a second-half schedule that consists of games against Arizona, Miami and four inter-division contests against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Baker Mayfield is bound to be playing with reckless abandonment, after his tirade against a local reporter this week in reaction to a question posed to him about the offense being satisfied with a scoreless drive during last Sunday’s loss to New England. The 2018 No. 1 overall pick has completed under 58 percent of his pass attempts with a horrific 6:12 TD:INT ratio on the season, but look for him to put up a solid outing with everything on the line in a must-win Week 9 situation. He won’t necessarily light it up against Denver’s fourth-ranked pass defense, but Allen will very likely turn the ball over once or twice for the other side.
3. Packers (-3) @ Chargers
Buy the half point here if necessary, and take the Packers at a clean -3 line, “on the road” against the Chargers. The stadium will be filled to the brim with Cheeseheads and the forecast predicts a sunny 81-degree day, so any home-field advantage is offset, if not tilted in Green Bay’s favor. Vegas’ projected point-spread indicates that these two teams would be even on a neutral field, though the Packers are a bona fide NFC Championship contender, and the Chargers an Eddy Piñeiro field-goal conversion away from a 2–6 record. Los Angeles remains without reigning All-Pro safeties Derwin James and Adrian Phillips, and Aaron Rodgers continues to make magic happen for the 7–1 Packers, finding himself on pace for a 32:4 TD:INT ratio with north of 4,600 passing yards through the midway point of 2019.
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