FCS National Championship Betting Preview
The most dominant dynasty in college football looks for a ninth championship against a program looking for its first title in almost 40 years
FCS National Championship
Montana State (12–2) vs North Dakota State (13–1)
Saturday, Noon, ESPN2
North Dakota State -7.5/Total 41.5
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A long 13 months for FCS Football comes to end as the second level of college football crowns its second national champion in the last eight months. After two upstart programs went toe-to-toe in the Spring title game, the dominant force in the sport returns to Frisco, Texas looking for its ninth title in eleven seasons and they’ll go up against a program that hasn’t won a national championship in 37 years.
North Dakota State’s Spring season was as disappointing as seasons get for the perennial FCS powerhouse. The Bison only made it to the quarterfinals where they lost on a last-minute touchdown to eventual national champions Sam Houston. The Bison struggled at quarterback and gave up too many big plays to contend for a title this Spring. This Fall, the Bison remedied that…on one side of the ball. The Bison are first in FCS in scoring defense and third in rushing defense. The Bison are tenth in passing efficiency defense which is a massive improvement from the Spring where they were 42nd in the country in that category. They average 3.5 sacks per game after averaging 2.6 sacks per game in fewer games this Spring.
At quarterback…it’s about the same? North Dakota State brought in a transfer quarterback, Quincy Patterson, but eventually turned the offense back over to Cam Miller who started in the Spring postseason. Miller is undoubtedly efficient. He completes 67.6 percent of his passes and has only thrown three interceptions this year. He also has thrown more than 20 passes and for more than 200 yards just twice this season and one of those games was in the loss to South Dakota State where they faced a sizeable deficit the only time this season. If you know anything about the NDSU offense is that they just want to bulldoze you. Forget about running between the tackles, this is an offense that’s fine running between the guards. The Bison rush for 273 yards per game which is third best in the country behind two teams who run versions of the option. They have a multitude of weapons like SMU transfer TaMerik Williams and fullback Hunter Luepke. Miller can run the ball and when Patterson is in the game it’s a safe bet they’re running QB power. The NDSU offense hopes to get a boost from its most explosive player, receiver Christian Watson, who has been out since the final game of the regular season finale with a hamstring injury. If he plays, he adds a level of dynamism to the offense that is a cherry on top of what they do well on the ground.
If you enjoy a good narrative, Montana State is the team for you. The Bobcats haven’t won a national title since 1984. It’s been so long since they’ve won a title, two of the teams they beat in the playoffs have long since left for FBS (Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech) and one of the schools in the playoffs that year, Boston University, hasn’t fielded a football team in 25 years. They sat out all of 2020 and lost their coach in the process so they hired Brent Vigen to take over as head coach. Vigen played at North Dakota State and pre-dated Craig Bohl on the Bison coaching staff. After winning three FCS titles, Bohl left for Wyoming and Vigen went with him before taking over at Montana State. After getting boat-raced by arch-rivals Montana in the season finale, Vigen made the bold decision to turn the offense over to freshman quarterback Tommy Mellott and that decision has worked out and then some. Mellott has improved each game in the postseason. Mellott is a better runner at this point. He’s scored two rushing touchdowns in each game so far, but his passing has improved game-to-game. He threw for 233 yards and two touchdowns in the semifinals against South Dakota State. He’s a local high school legend and has an “it” factor that isn’t actionable, but is also undeniable. Lance McCutcheon is their go-to receiver with 1,113 yards and eight touchdowns. They’re hoping to get star running back Isaiah Ifanse back for the title game. He ran for over 1,500 yards this season, but he’s been dealing with a lingering knee problem.
For Montana State to win, they’re going to have to stop the run and they do that pretty well. They rank 11th in FCS in rush defense and give up 2.95 yards per carry. South Dakota State’s rushing offense was on par with, or better than, North Dakota State’s most of the season and Montana State mostly shut it down. They did make one mistake and gave up a 44-yard touchdown to the best running back in FCS, Pierre Strong, but otherwise held the Jackrabbits to 80 yards on 32 carries. A week early against Sam Houston who is sixth in the country in rushing offense, Montana State held the Bearkats to 79 yards on 35 carries. Montana State was without two key defensive starters, DL Chase Benson and DB Ty Okada, against South Dakota State and they hope to have both of them back on Saturday.
I really like everything Montana State brings to the table in this game, but at the end of the day I just don’t have much desire to bet against a North Dakota State team that excels in spots like this. The line opened at North Dakota State -9.5 before getting down to 7.5. There’s been some push-pull as of late with it going back and forth between 7.5 and 8. I love watching Touchdown Tommy Mellott play, but this is a pretty big step up in competition in terms of the defenses he’s faced. Sam Houston’s defense wasn’t as good as its statistical profile and South Dakota State’s defense gave up big plays in the passing game all year. North Dakota State’s front seven is difficult to move the ball on so it’s an uphill battle. These also aren’t particularly explosive offenses so even though the total is down from 47 to 41.5, it still feels like it’s going under. It feels like the kind of game that’s going to end 24–14 or something in that range.
