Heisman Handicap: A lookahead to 2022
FanDuel has dropped odds for the Heisman Trophy so here are some quick thoughts, including my favorite bet on the board.
The 2021 Heisman race was an interesting one to track right up until the final week of the season when Bryce Young’s dominance against Georgia secured him a lopsided Heisman win. The season just ended, but Fanduel has posted odds for 2022 so it’s fun to look at and see what stands out. Without knowing how the transfer portal is going to shake out it’s a risky proposition to bet these now, but if you want to head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to take advantage of your $1,000 risk-free bet.
Bryce Young +250
The reigning Heisman winner is obviously the favorite, but Archie Griffin is the only player to ever win the award twice. It’s fair to wonder how much a shot Young has to repeat, because nobody has come close recently. Since 2004 seven Heisman winners have returned to play at least one more season and none finished higher than third. Alabama is likely going to be better than they were in 2021 so Young will be right back in the mix, but Heisman fatigue is a thing and Heisman winners have a hard time exceeding the lofty expectations.
CJ Stroud +350
Ohio State players are an interesting, but risky, play because they have such a difficult schedule in 2022. The Buckeyes will probably be favored in every game, and that’s important in my analysis of future odds, but obviously with Notre Dame, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan at home and Penn State and Michigan State on the road, there are plenty of landmines in that schedule. If the Buckeyes come through that with two or fewer losses then someone from that team is going to be in New York. Stroud finished fourth in this year’s voting which makes me wonder how much voters were buying into him even before the loss to Michigan, but with the Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the emerging Marvin Harrison Jr to throw to, Stroud should be able to put up big numbers again.
JT Daniels, Dillon Gabriel, Tyler Van Dyke +2000
Daniels was someone I stumped for before the 2021 season and I’m not repeating that here. There’s no guarantee he’s even going to get the job and I don’t see the Georgia offense suddenly becoming pass happy. Gabriel transferred to Oklahoma to reunite with OC Jeff Lebby under whom Gabriel threw for 3,653 yards and 29 touchdowns as a Freshman in 2009 so maybe he’s worth a look, but I’m a little gun shy to get in bed with any Oklahoma futures after program underwent such a massive overhaul with its coaching staff and roster this offseason. Van Dyke had a great finish to 2021 throwing for over 300 yards and at least three touchdowns in his final six games of the season so on one hand I get the hype. However, Miami has road games at Texas A&M and Clemson who have much better rosters right now than Miami so he’s looking at two likely losses before the season kicks off and that’s fighting an uphill battle.
Caleb Williams, DJ Uiagalelei +2500
Williams is hard to bet because we don’t know where he’ll end up. You can jump on this number now and bank on him following Lincoln Riley to USC and hope they quickly get things turned around there which is possible, but if he doesn’t end up there I’m not sure how to view his odds. As for DJU, a quarterback with more interceptions than touchdowns the year before entering as the co-sixth favorite to win the Heisman is laughable. Maybe he makes a massive leap and looks like the former five-star recruit he was, but I’m not touching it.
Anthony Richardson, Kedon Slovis +3000
There’s a lot unknown with Richardson that makes me weary to back him. He’s a great runner but pretty raw as a passer, Florida has a new coaching staff and we don’t know what the offense is going to look like and they have a tough schedule that includes Utah(!), road games at Tennessee and Texas A&M and they, of course, have to play Georgia. Slovis is interesting. He was great as a Freshman at USC but he battled injuries and inconsistency the next two years. Now he’s replacing Kenny Pickett at Pitt and there’s a lot to like. They have most of their offensive line returning and they added Akron transfer Konata Mumpfield who had 751 receiving yards and eight touchdowns to go along with Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison so the Panthers offense should be potent again. But last year felt like a dream season for Pittsburgh and Pickett wasn’t all that close to winning the Heisman so maybe when Heisman finalist odds come out you should look at Slovis.
My Favorite Bet — Will Anderson +4000
If this is at +4000 for a while I’m going to bet this. Anderson is coming off a season in which he led the country in sacks, finished fifth in the Heisman voting and, even in defeat, was arguably the best player on the field in the National Championship Game. Alabama is going to be the best team in the country in 2022. They’re probably going to win the National Championship. They start the season against Utah State who may be ranked at the bottom of the Top 25. Their second game is at Texas, who was 90th in the country in sack rate and may start two freshmen on the offensive line this year because there isn’t a lot of returning talent in that position group in Austin. At that point, Anderson will be off and running and it’s going to be hard to deny that he’s the best defensive player in the country. The only non-quarterbacks to win the Heisman since Reggie Bush were Alabama players DeVonta Smith and Mark Ingram. If you want to go even further with NARRATIVE, it’s been 25 years since a defensive player won the Heisman (Charles Woodson) so that is going to come up in Anderson’s candidacy. If Alabama is the best team in the country and Heisman fatigue is a thing for Bryce Young, then who better to win the award than the guy who is arguably their best player anyway?
