How would drafting Kyler Murray first overall affects the Cardinals’ offensive pieces?
All signs are pointing towards the Cardinals picking Kyler Murray with the first overall pick despite them taking Josh Rosen in the first round last season. They traded away their third and fifth round pick last year to move up five spots to get him, probably out of desperation in a scenario they didn’t expect — Rosen being there at 10. They took their shot. iIt wasn’t perfect, but they don’t want to pass up this opportunity at who they think is the right guy. According to SBD, Murray is the favorite to go first overall. Whether Murray succeeds in the NFL or not, I’m not sure there’s much doubt that he would fit Kliff Kingsbury’s offense pretty well, and it seems like Kingsbury would agree based on what he’s said in the past and reports of Rosen potentially being dealt. And from a fantasy perspective, this offense would become a lot more enticing.
A mobile QB in a spread offense is going to help open lanes for David Johnson. Not only will teams be in nickel and dime a ton, but they might have to reserve a spy at the LB position. According to Graham Barfield, Texas Tech RBs were 10th in CFB in receptions per game in Kingsbury’s last three seasons. They also targeted a RB out of the backfield on 8.1 percent of plays on first down and eight percent of plays of all early down plays, which was sixth and fifth in the FBS, respectively. Murray has been more accurate in his junior year than Rosen has in his on passes within 10 yards. With a subpar offensive line, DJ should be involved plenty in the pass game.
On attempts going longer than 20-plus yards in his junior year, Murray has had 60 percent accuracy compared to Rosen’s 33 percent, even with Murray attempting 60 of them compared to Rosen’s 39. Rosen had a terrible offensive line last year, but according to PFF, still finished 27th in adjusted completion percentage and was second to last in passer rating when he had a clean pocket. He was dead last in deep pass accuracy of any QB with at least 350 dropbacks.
We would have to think that can improve with Murray under center, with both Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk benefitting. Remember, Kirk did play a handful of games with Murray at Texas A&M during their freshman year before Murray transferred out. In the one game Murray threw more than 28 passes that year, Kirk caught nine passes for 122 yards and two TDs. With Murray’s ability to extend plays, that’s just more opportunity for these receivers to make plays.
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