NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread
A second straight 2–1 outing for us last Sunday, bringing the cumulative 2019 record to 4–2 heading into an intriguing Week 5 slate of matchups. We have what should be an AFC slugfest down in Nashville between the Bills and Titans, a sleepy Bucs-Saints matchup that could go a long way in determining an NFC South division champ, the Browns headed west to take on the undefeated 49ers on Monday night, and, of course, Cowboys-Packers in the late-afternoon slot Sunday afternoon. We’re picking the numbers not the teams, and seeking a third-straight winning week on this Week 5 edition of Fantasy Life Picks Against the Spread.
Season-To-Date: 4–2
Last Week: 2–1, W — TEN (+4) 24–10 @ ATL, L — NE (-7) 16–10 @ BUF,
W — NO (+3) 12–10 v. DAL
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Week 5 Picks
1. Bears (-5) — Raiders @ Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Things can get wonky in a hurry in London when a couple of NFL teams come to town. Lately, the game tends gets out of hand early for one side or the other. Blame it on the travel, the unfamiliar environment, the fish and chips. In seven games played in London over the past two seasons, five have been decided by 17 or more points, with an average 26.2-point win margin for the victor in those five contests. The Raiders have played fairly well to this point, starting 2–2 after winning just one game through the first 10 weeks of 2018, and last Sunday beating Indianapolis by seven despite coming in as six-point road underdogs. Oakland’s offensive line has held opponents to eight sacks through Week 4, but Chicago is one off the league lead in sacks as a defense (17) and is tied for fourth in takeaways (eight). Derek Carr has committed three interceptions over the past three weeks and is tied for the eighth-most fumbles in the NFL this season. On the other side, it’s a certainty that Chase Daniel doesn’t offer the rushing upside of Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder), but Chicago’s offense should not see a massive downgrade in overall proficiency with the wily Daniel at the helm. In three games over the past two years in which he’s started or entered the contest in the first quarter, Daniel has completed 70.8 percent of his passes for 237 yards per game and a 4:2 TD:INT ratio while leading Chicago to a 2–1 record. Oakland has given up 24-plus points in three straight games. The Raiders are highly unlikely to put up even 20, with Chicago allowing fewer than 12 points per game thus far in 2019. Fire up the Bears in Week 5, even laying five points.
2. Jaguars (+3) @ Panthers
Minshew Mania in full effect here. The rookie signal caller is dealing with a knee issue but is expected to start against the Panthers on Sunday. This team has been down to the wire or a winner in all three games that Minshew has started — defeating Tennessee and Denver by 13 and two points, respectively, and getting within a two-point conversion of beating Houston in Week 2. From the point he entered the game in the season opener against Kansas City through the end of the fourth quarter, it was just a 23–19 margin in favor of the Chiefs. Among quarterbacks who have played in every game for their team thus far this season Minshew ranks fifth in completion percentage. He also boasts a 7:1 TD:INT ratio entering a matchup against what so far have been a tough Carolina secondary, allowing just 182 pass yards per game. The Jaguars don’t necessarily need the aerial attack to succeed Sunday though, with Leonard Fournette and his 225-yard Week 4 rushing output going up against a 24th-ranked Panthers rush defense. Kyle Allen lost three fumbles against the Texans last week. Sacksonville has some cats who will force Allen to put the ball on the mat Sunday. Jaguars with the points.
3. Vikings (-5) @ Giants
Like Minshew, Daniel Jones, too, is getting a ton of hype after a sterling start to his rookie campaign. The G-Men are 2–0 with “Danny Dimes” under center, with wins coming against the Buccaneers — who are playing .500 ball so far but are nowhere near possessing an elite defense at this point — as well as the Redskins. Jones has not seen a defense like Minnesota’s, a unit that has six starters who have made at least one Pro Bowl over the past two seasons. The Buccaneers had zero defensive players selected to the Pro Bowl last season. Washington ranks better than only the Dolphins in points allowed per game this year. Jones has a bright future, but let’s pump the breaks here, folks. Minnesota has a loaded roster, and is going to be coming into the Meadowlands wanting to bounce back after a deflating 16–6 loss to Chicago last Sunday. Expect Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense to throw the ball more than usual, as they try to catch some momentum against an over-matched Giants secondary, and shed the notion than they can’t move the ball through the air. Vikings 27, Giants 16.
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