NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread
We put forth our first losing showing of the year last week, bringing the cumulative 2019 record to 5–4 heading into a packed Week 6 slate. Got a bit off the mark there, most notably taking the Jaguars (+3) on the road at Carolina — a pick that just did not feel secure from the jump, though Gardner Minshew was afforded two or three last-second Hail Mary tosses at the end zone with a chance to collect a dramatic win or at least force overtime.
And man, did we underestimate the Raiders. Remaining skeptical that this is a club capable of getting to and winning a playoff game, but Oakland is clearly a much improved team from a year ago — even devoid of splash offseason signing Antonio Brown. This is the Raiders’ first 3–2 start since 2016, the only playoff-yielding season for Oakland since the Rich Gannon-led Super Bowl run of 2002.
The Vikings (-5) were able to cash one in, handling the Giants 28–10 to provide the lone winning Week 5 pick. As we predicted, Minnesota was committed to getting its passing game going against a susceptible Big Blue secondary, with Kirk Cousins putting up 27 attempts and logging 300-plus passing yards for the first time in his past 10 regular-season outings.
Season-To-Date: 5–4
Last Week: 1–2, W — MIN (-5) 28–10 @ NYG, L — CHI (-5) 21–24 @ OAK, L — JAX (+3) 27–34 @ CAR
Week 6 Picks
1. Titans (+2) @ Broncos
In Tennessee’s past four outings, the winning side has averaged just 19.3 points per game. This road trip to Denver figures to be another slug fest, with the Vegas over/under set at a Week 6 low of 40.5 points. Such a low projected output of points indicates less propensity for this to be a blowout game one way or the other. What’s even more encouraging is the fact that the Titans are 7–1 over their past eight games against non-AFC South opponents, winning by nine or more points in all but one of those seven victories. In regards to the 2019 Titans squad, specifically, this is an incredibly well-coached and error-free team. Tennessee has just one giveaway all season (three fewer than any other team in the NFL) and Marcus Mariota is quietly throwing to an uber-efficient 7:0 TD:INT ratio, with greater than 61 percent of his attempts completed in every game thus far this year. On the ground, meanwhile, Tennessee has a distinct advantage there as well. Last year the Broncos became the first team in league history to allow a 200-yard rusher in consecutive regular-season games, and in Week 4 Leonard Fournette erupted for a career-best 225 rushing yards at Mile High. Tennessee’s Derrick Henry is averaging a career-best 77.6 rushing yards per game and already has five total touchdowns on the season. That’s bad news for a Broncos bunch that is without Bradley Chubb (knee — ACL), and has faced incredible difficulty slowing down physical runners in recent years. Look for the Titans to pound the rock, control the clock, and not only cover but potentially also get the win in Week 6.
2. Jets (+7.5) v. Cowboys
This is a tricky one, but we’re catching the Jets with more than a touchdown buffer built in, playing at home with its franchise quarterback back under center. The Jets have been an absolute dumpster without Sam Darnold (mono) in the lineup over the past three games, losing by a combined 51 points to Cleveland, New England and Philadelphia with Trevor Siemian (ankle) and Luke Falk filling in at QB. Many forget, though, that these same Jets built a 16–0 lead on the seemingly playoff-bound Bills in Week 1 when Darnold was on the field, and late last year played a number of quality teams down to the wire — beating Buffalo in Week 14, and losing one-possessions games to Tennessee, Houston and Green Bay in Weeks 13, 15 and 16. Colin Cowherd made a valid point in his “Blazing Five” Saturday morning, noting that coach Adam Gase has been withholding some of his more clever offensive play calls of late — not wanting to give away the nuances of the offense with an over-matched Falk taking the majority of the snaps the past few weeks. The Cowboys will be focused after dropping one to Green Bay at Jerry’s World in Week 5, but 7.5 points is just too many to concede to a desperate Jets bunch. Dallas to get the win, but Gang Green to keep it within a touchdown — Cowboys 26, Jets 19.
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