Old Faces, New Places!
Five NFL Free Agency moves of the 2016 summer
The NFL off-season is the most depressing part of the year for any football fan. Anything, even the slightest news, can be exciting to a fan. Just take a look at how nuts the Fantasy Life App went when news was released that Le’veon Bell could be suspended…again. These past months have been nothing but sadness for all of us. Each day brings us closer to football, but we’re still not there yet. To quench our thirst for the game we love, let’s take a look at five offensive players who decided to switch uniforms this summer, and how they affect our fantasy football universe.
1. Lamar Miller — RB Houston Texans
Miller’s decision to join the Houston Texans might be the most fantasy-friendly signing of 2016. Miller’s 2015 season was a headache for his fantasy owners. It wasn’t his play that caused fantasy owners to detest him, it was his team. The Miami Dolphins’ play calling was not Miller-friendly; he didn’t get enough carries to be fantasy relevant at times. There were times when Miller was absolutely fantastic in the first two quarters of games, but would disappear in the second-half. Miller had enough, and left the Dolphins to join a run-heavy offensive system in the Houston Texans for a four-year, $26 million deal. Running backs don’t usually perform well when they switch teams, but many (including me) feel that Miller is an exception. His ADP has increased from RB15 in 2015 to RB6. Miller joins a team that addresses the one and only issue he’s had: Getting opportunities to run the football. The Texans like to run the football, they always have. Miller will be the bell-cow in this offense. Miller is not in a crowded backfield either, and should lose only a few touches each game. Miller’s ability and talent also reminds many of another talented running back, Arian Foster. Somewhat ironic, as the two swapped teams this off-season. I see Miller having a great year for fantasy owners. Prediction: Miller finishes at the RB4 position in 2016. I expect big things from him.
2. Matt Forte — RB New York Jets
The Chicago Bears definitively claimed that they were in with the new and out with the old after declining to re-sign Forte this summer. Forte landed a three-year, $12 million deal in New York. He is somewhat of a question mark coming into 2016. It’s a crowded backfield in the Big Apple, with Bilal Powell and Khiry Robinson in the mix to snag touches from Forte. Not to mention that Forte is 30 with a recent injury history. The Jets have even made it very clear that Forte will share his work-load. Forte’s quarterback situation is also concerning. It’s unclear who the starting quarterback for the Jets will be. If Geno Smith ends up being the starter week 1, Forte is a very unappetizing option. However, if Forte can fend off his fellow running back teammates and perform well in this offensive system, he can do big things. His upside is capped for the moment. Prediction: Forte finishes as the RB18.
3. Ladarius Green — TE Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ high-octane offense can give any receiver a chance to enjoy fantasy success. That’s why Green could have a monster 2016 season. Throughout his career, Green has been overshadowed by future Hall of Fame tight end Antonio Gates. He replaces another legend in Pittsburgh, Heath Miller. Last season, Green filled in for a suspended Gates and posted a stat-line of 174 yards and a touchdown(14.4 points per game average in PPR) in the first three games he played. These numbers aren’t eye popping, but they’re good numbers considering how shallow the tight end position was in 2015. Green moves to a similar pass-heavy offense. With the suspensions of teammates Martavis Bryant and , possibly, Le’Veon Bell, Green could have an amplified role on this offense. His upside is somewhat infinite. The only concern I see is the fact that the Steelers have not been a very fantasy-friendly team for tight ends. He also missed OTAs with an ankle injury, but that is not much of a concern provided he’s healthy for training camp. Prediction: Green finishes as the TE6
4. Brock Osweiler — QB Houston Texans
After being Peyton Manning’s understudy the past four years, Osweiler decided it was his time. Osweiler received a ton of criticism for his lucrative contract (four-years, $72 million) considering he’s only started in seven professional games throughout his career. It’s tough to predict how Brock will do in this offense. He’s got tons of talent surrounding him in DeAndre Hopkins and Miller. Osweiler’s rise last season in Denver was unexpected; no one anticipated the steep decline of Peyton Manning. Osweiler did a good job filling in for an all-time great, but he wasn’t extraordinary. The Texans believe that they’ve found a Favre-Rodgers situation where a QB plays backup for a while and learns from the best. We can’t pin-point exactly what Brock is going to do with his new team, but he’s a major positional upgrade from what the Texans had last year at quarterback. He won’t have a ton of volume as the Texans are a ground and pound type of offense. His limit on pass attempts may cap his upside quite a bit, which makes him a difficult option weekly. However, he may win you weeks in DFS. I expect there to be growing pains, but he should have a good year considering his supporting cast. Prediction: Osweiler finishes at the QB15 spot. He will be much better in real life than in fantasy football
5. Marvin Jones — WR Detroit Lions
This year’s receiver class of free agents wasn’t too juicy. Alshon Jeffery was the biggest name, but he stayed put in Chicago. Jones was probably the most fantasy-relevant move among wide receivers this off-season. There is a burning question among the Detroit Lions this off-season: How will they respond without their star receiver, Calvin Johnson? Jones looks to answer that question this upcoming season. 2015 was up and down for Jones. He had good games, but fell short of gaining 100 yards in any of the 16 games he played. Obviously his situation is different in Detroit. He won’t be overshadowed by a star like AJ green anymore. He’s in a much more pass-friendly offense. I expect Jones to have big year, especially in garbage time. This is Jones’ time to prove whether he can be a solid fantasy option, or just a TD dependent DFS play. He put up great numbers in 2015 considering he was buried behind guys like Green and Tyler Eifert. Running back Giovanni Bernard also took a lot catches away as well. It’s actually rather impressive that Jones managed to put up solid numbers last year. He’s a potential boom or bust candidate in 2016. Prediction: Jones finishes as the WR20 this upcoming season; he will be streaky.
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Be sure to follow me @shalin. If you want to know more about the player universe in fantasy football, be sure to check out my guide: “Every NFL team’s Running back and Wide Receiver Depth Chart” here.
