Post-NFL Draft: Stock Up & Stock Down Report
By: Kyle Matheu
The NFL Draft has come and gone, and fantasy owners must face this painful truth regarding their pre-NFL Draft rookie rankings: those rankings are now entirely useless. I’m aware that you spent hours upon hours crafting the perfectly tiered rookie system, but it’s alright; we have no choice but to adapt. While it’s extremely important to stick to our original evaluations that we obtained through our tireless scouting efforts, we have now been given new information that we must use in order to re-evaluate this bunch of rookies.
In this article, I’ll list my pre-draft rankings of my top 5 running backs (RB article can be found here) and my top 5 wide receivers (WR article can be found here). In addition, I’ll include my ideal landing spot and projected draft range for each player, both determined before the NFL Draft. I’ll then compare this pre-draft information to the data collected after the draft, and proceed to state whether I think each player has seen their stock increase or decrease and why. Enjoy!
Top 5 Running Backs:
5. Darrell Henderson, Memphis
Ideal landing spot: Buffalo Bills
Projected draft range: Third round
Actual landing spot: Los Angeles Rams
Actual draft range: Third round
I never thought I’d be disappointed to see an explosive running back land in an explosive offense, but here we are. Henderson will slot in behind one of the best RBs in the league in Todd Gurley, although I expect him to be mixed in as a change-of-pace option due to the question marks surrounding Gurley’s knee. However, Henderson will need a Gurley injury in order to see consistent touches.
Previous Ranking: RB5
New ranking: Outside of Top 5
4. Damien Harris, Alabama
Ideal landing spot: Oakland Raiders
Projected draft range: Third round
Actual landing spot: New England Patriots
Actual draft range: Third round
Harris was one on my favorite backs entering the draft process, and he was selected with fairly high draft capital. However, Harris will be cemented behind Sony Michel on first and second downs, and behind James White on third downs. Harris should unfortunately be viewed as nothing more than Michel’s backup, but considering Michel’s injury history, Harris immediately becomes one of the top handcuffs in the league.
Previous Ranking: RB4
New ranking: Outside of Top 5
3. Miles Sanders, Penn State
Ideal landing spot: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected draft range: Second round
Actual landing spot: Philadelphia Eagles
Actual draft range: Second Round
Sanders landed on a team where he should be given every opportunity to be a three-down back, which is excellent for his fantasy prospects. He doesn’t move up in my rookie RB rankings, but that’s due to my top two running backs also landing in favorable situations. Sanders will require an early first round pick in dynasty rookie drafts, but he could turn out to be well worth the investment.
Previous Ranking: RB3
New ranking: RB3
2. Josh Jacobs, Alabama
Ideal landing spot: Philadelphia Eagles
Projected draft range: Late first round, early second round
Actual landing spot: Oakland Raiders
Actual draft range: First round
Jacobs landed in a spot that will give him the opportunity to carry the load as a runner and as a pass catcher, which was his best-case-scenario entering the draft process. Due to a combination of landing spot and first round draft capital, Jacobs surpasses Montgomery and becomes my rookie RB1.
Previous Ranking: RB2
New ranking: RB1 (+1)
1. David Montgomery, Iowa State
Ideal landing spot: Kansas City Chiefs
Projected draft range: Second round
Actual landing spot: Chicago Bears
Actual draft range: Third round
I still believe that Montgomery is the best running back in this class, but Jacobs received the preferred landing spot and draft capital. As a result, Montgomery will slot down to my RB2 in this class but I’m still a buyer. I’m slightly worried about him losing reps in the passing game to Tarik Cohen, but Montgomery should still be given every opportunity to receive 15 to 20 carries per game.
Previous Ranking: RB1
New ranking: RB2 (-1)
Top 5 Wide Receivers:
5. Kelvin Harmon, North Carolina State
Ideal landing spot: San Francisco 49ers
Projected draft range: Late second round, early third round
Actual landing spot: Washington Redskins
Actual draft range: Sixth round
Oh man, what a brutal fall for Harmon. He landed in an excellent spot with Dwayne Haskins at QB, but with sixth round draft capital? It’s unlikely he carves out any type of role, much less a potential starting role. I’d take a late flier on Harmon in dynasty rookie drafts, but I wouldn’t have high hopes that he pans out.
Previous Ranking: WR5
New ranking: Outside of Top 5
4. Hakeem Butler, Iowa State
Ideal landing spot: New England Patriots
Projected draft range: Second round
Actual landing spot: Arizona Cardinals
Actual draft range: Fourth round
I projected Butler to fall a bit further in the draft than most expected, but I definitely didn’t envision him falling all the way to Day 3. He wasn’t even the first WR drafted by Arizona (Andy Isabella), so I could see Butler’s first season in the NFL being a redshirt-type year. He’s a sell for me at his current price in dynasty rookie drafts.
Previous Ranking: WR4
New ranking: Outside of Top 5
3. DK Metcalf, Ole Miss
Ideal landing spot: Buffalo Bills
Projected draft range: First round
Actual landing spot: Seattle Seahawks
Actual draft range: Second round
I wish I could say that I expected Metcalf to be one pick away from falling to the third round in the NFL Draft, but I’d be lying. Seattle’s a great landing spot for him, but I’m shocked at the low draft capital that was spent to acquire him compared to the first round equity that was expected. I’m not a huge fan of his NFL prospects, but he’ll retain his rookie WR3 ranking by default.
Previous Ranking: WR3
New ranking: WR3
2. A.J. Brown, Ole Miss
Ideal landing spot: Green Bay Packers
Projected draft range: Late first round, early second round
Actual landing spot: Tennessee Titans
Actual draft range: Second round
I’m entirely convinced that the Titans enjoy ruining my favorite receivers. I apologize to any Titans fans that may be reading this, but I’m still slightly salty that they drafted Corey Davis and proceeded to waste his elite talent. I’m uninspired by this rookie WR class (for the most part), so similar to Metcalf, I’ll keep A.J. Brown as my rookie WR2 by default. I still love the talent.
Previous Ranking: WR2
New ranking: WR2
1. N’Keal Harry, Arizona State
Ideal landing spot: Indianapolis Colts
Projected draft range: First round
Actual landing spot: New England Patriots
Actual draft range: First round
Oh boy. What a way to cap off the first round of the NFL Draft. Harry entered the NFL Draft as my rookie WR1, and he’ll exit the draft process as my WR1. Tom Brady thrives in the intermediate passing game, which will give Harry the opportunity to excel as the “big slot” receiver in New England. He’s cemented as my 1.01 in non-superflex rookie drafts, and I feel fantastic about it.
Previous Ranking: WR1
New ranking: WR1 (N/A)
I hope this piece provided you with some clarity regarding this incoming rookie class, giving you the extra bit of information you need in order to dominate your drafts. Thanks for reading!
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