Roto Mock Draft Review: 1st Pick

The FLA Blog decided to run a 10 team 5x5 roto mock draft at the end of January that I had the honor of partaking in. For this mock, I had the number one pick. I will be breaking down the picks I made in the draft and what I was thinking at each pick. I also will provide insight on what categories I feel each player helps and hurts me in and how that played in the construction of my team. Each teams roster will include a C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, Util, 9 P slots.

Billie Weiss:Boston Red Sox

Pick 1: Mookie Betts OF BOS
Category Strengths: AVG, HRs, R, RBI, SB
Category Weaknesses: None

I started the draft off with a bang, which I will do in any draft where I have the number 1 pick. I picked Betts over Trout, how dare I! That is the feedback I get any time I make this selection, as if I just did something unspeakable. Personally, I don’t think you can go wrong with picks 1 or 2 with Trout or Betts available, nor do I think there is a major difference the 2. But based off a few key criteria, I think Betts is in line for the better season this year.

Betts has been the better fantasy option 2 of the past 3 seasons. Ranking higher than Trout at the end of both the 2016 and 2018 season. Examine both of their stat lines from 2016 to 2018

2016 (AVG/R/HR/RBI/SB):
Trout: .315/123/29/100/30
Betts: .318/122/31/113/26

2017 (AVG/R/HR/RBI/SB):
Trout:.306/92/33/72/22
Betts: .264/101/24/102/26

2018 (AVG/R/HR/RBI/SB):
Trout: .312/101/39/79/24
Betts: .346/129/32/80/30

Now right away I fully understand if you used the argument that Betts had a miserable 2017 and that is the reason you went with Trout. Like I stated, it is a very close call between the 2 that any reasoning can be justified. I would argue this point however that if you look at the stats, yes Betts had a terrible year in Average and Trout did beat him out in homers, but Betts still contributed in 3 categories at a higher rate than Trout, and this was his down season which I believe to be an outlier. When you look at 2016 both are almost identical with Betts getting the slight edge overall and in 2018 is where the story turns in Betts favor as he dominated in Average, Runs, and also beat out Trout in RBIs and Stolen Bases. I never like to use the injury card when judging a player, but when it comes to this tight of a decision, Trout does have the more extensive injury history in the previous 2 years (not that I’m saying Trout is injury prone), but something that shouldn’t be fully ignored. If you think my argument stops at the stat lines you’d be wrong.

Lets examine the projected starting lineups of both the Red Sox and Angels, according to Roster Resource.

Angels:

1. Calhoun
2. Trout
3. Upton
4. Bour
5. Pujols
6. Simmons
7. Cozart
8. Lucroy
9. Fletcher

Red Sox:

1. Benintendi
2. Betts
3. Martinez
4. Bogaerts
5. Moreland
6. Pedroia
7. Devers
8. Vazquez
9. Bradley Jr.

Both Betts and Trout project to hit from the 2 hole this season. But that 2nd slot is much different in these lineups. Betts is surrounded by Benintendi (who I think could be a first round value this year), Martinez, and Bogarets. Compare that to Calhoun, Upton, and Bour for the Angels. When you have an All-Star, Silver Slugger, and the 2018 RBI leader behind you, it means you are going to score a lot of runs. When you have a guy that had a .366 OBP hitting in front of you that can steal bases, RBIs are more available to you. Compare this to Trouts situation. Calhoun had a .283 OBP last year and Upton had 85 RBIs compared to Martinez’s 130. Betts and Trout will both hit for a high average and are comparable in many areas. But I believe Betts is in line for higher run production, more RBIs, and will be competitive in HRs and SBs with Trout. When its this close the small things matter, and I like Betts chances at out doing Trout in multiple categories again this season. Now if Betts does repeat 2017 than I could easily be wrong, but I think both options are great picks to have at picks 1 and 2 and while you can’t go wrong, Betts is the guy for me.

2nd Pick: Andrew Benintendi OF BOS
Category Strengths: AVG, R, SB
Category Weaknesses: HR, RBI

Benintendi is a career .282 hitter who can steal bases and can score runs. Based on other industry rankings and drafts I have seen, this pick was a bit of a reach by most standards. But being on the turn I knew I wouldn’t get him on the way back. I think Benintendi is in line for a huge breakout year, one that could cement him in the first round of drafts next season. Projecting to hit atop the Red Sox lineup, I think he will be in for a great deal of runs and will have opportunities to run. I do think he will fall behind in RBIs, but if he does breakout, I believe he can hit 25+ homeruns from the leadoff position. I list HR and RBI as being his weakness, not because I think he won’t produce in these areas, but because I do think as of this moment he is currently behind others at this pick. With this being a 5 OF league in a year where outfield gets shallow fast and SB being a premium, this felt like the best choice to me. If Freddie Freeman would have fallen to me here, Freeman would have been my pick.

3rd Pick: Juan Soto OF WSH
Category Strengths: AVG, HR, RBI
Category Weaknesses: R, SB

Did I already say how shallow outfield becomes in drafts this year? Thats not the only reason for my first 3 picks, I just like Soto a lot. He burst onto the scene last season and made a name for himself. Even if the Nationals lineup remains without Harper, it is still a very good lineup that he will be hitting near the top in. I did struggle deciding between Soto, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Chris Sale at this spot, but felt Soto has the highest upside of them all.

4th Pick: Carlos Correa SS HOU
Category Strengths: AVG, HR, RBI
Category Weaknesses: R, SB

Correa has been a first round value up until last year. Last season was a down year and injury played a big role in his production. I believe he will have a bounce back season and could be a late first to early second rounder next year.

5th Pick: Luis Severino SP NYY
Category Strengths: K, ERA, WHIP
Category Weaknesses: None

I’m targeting Severino in all my drafts. He continues to fall after having an up and down year last season. There were moments of him looking like an ace, and moments where he looked like he was heading for the minors. He had a 2.95 FIP last year, which tells me he’s primed for a bounce back season.

6th Pick: Corey Seager SS LAD
Category Strengths: AVG, HR, R
Category Weaknesses: RBI, SB

At the time I made this pick I thought Seager falling was a great thing. I do have my concerns with Seager, but he’s always been a player I like having on my teams. However, a few days after the draft reports came out saying Seager may be out to start the season. Those may have led me to take a Suarez or a Clevinger type, but I don’t hate having Seager in my MI spot and if all goes right for him he’s another bounce back candidate I like.

ESPN.com

Pick: Jameson Taillon SP PIT
Category Strength:ERA, WHIP
Category Weaknesses: W, K

This pick was a three headed race for me. It was between Taillon, Strasburg, and Paxton. Strasburg and Paxton both worry me on the injury side and I think Taillon could make a big jump this season. While Taillon is under a K/9 and could struggle for wins on a down Pirates team, he should be solid for your ratios and he could see an increase on strikeouts.

8th Pick: Roberto Osuna RP HOU
Category Strengths: SV, K, ERA, WHIP
Category Weakness: None

Osuna is my top closer this season on a team that should win quite a few games.

9th Pick: Kenley Jansen RP LAD
Category Strengths: SV, K, ERA, WHIP
Category Weakness: None

I expect Jansen to return to normal and picking him and Osuna back to back should give me a leg up on saves at this point in the draft. My only hesitation of going with closers in round 8 and 9, is that I did miss out on Eddie Rosario who is another player I try and target whenever I can.

10th Pick: Jose Peraza SS CIN
Category Strengths: SB, R
Category Weaknesses: AVG, RBI

This pick right here is why you need to make sure you pay attention to all details in your drafts. I like Peraza and I don’t mind him at this spot, but this pick was the biggest mistake of my draft. I wanted to try to solidify steals with this pick and was debating between Peraza and Dee Gordon. Personally, I prefer Peraza as he will contribute in more categories than steals. The problem though, is that I already have Correa and Seager. Now if we played this out and Seager started the year on the DL, this pick won’t be as terrible. But when I made the selection Peraza would be slotted as my Util, which I’m not a big fan of.

11th Pick: Miles Mikolas SP STL
Category Strengths: ERA, WHIP
Category Weaknesses: K

Mikolas should continue his excellent performance from last season. The Cardinals are also an improved team overall which should help Mikolas get double digit wins.

12th Pick: Eduardo Rodriguez SP BOS
Category Strengths: K
Category Weaknesses: Potentially ERA and WHIP

Pitches for a very good team and has over a K/9. Could have some rocky starts that inflate his ERA and WHIP, but solid for my SP4 with SP2 upside.

13th Pick: Brian Dozier 2B WSH
Category Strengths: HR
Category Weaknesses: AVG

I am not out of Dozier’s camp yet as he has 35+ HR potential. Roster Resource projects him to hit in the 6th slot, which would limit his run and RBI potential. If he climbs up the order, both of those could skyrocket. Dozier can also steal double digit bases.

14th Pick: Mike Moustakas 3B TBD
Category Strengths: HR
Category Weaknesses: AVG, SB

Where will Moose end up? Once again he is not signed as Spring Training approaches. Where he lands will play a big role on his counting stats. My best guess is that he will sign relatively fast after the Machado decision, as the teams who miss out on Machado will need to turn to a second option. No matter where he goes, Moustakas should hit for 20+ homeruns.

15th Pick: Yasmani Grandal C MIL
Category Strengths: HR
Category Weaknesses: AVG, SB

Rounds 13 through 15, I sold out for power. I felt my team was lacking behind in power since I picked Benintendi and Correa early and I needed to make it up somewhere. All 3 of these picks will hurt my average, but not to a point where I think I’m in trouble. Grandal is my number 2 catcher this year and expect big things out of him in Milwaukee this season.

16th Pick: Shane Bieber SP CLE
Category Strengths: K
Category Weaknesses: ERA

Bieber should be a safe piece to put into any rotation and he does have upside, which makes him a perfect SP5. I do have fears that his K/9 rate regress and he is a command pitcher who can get roughed up some outings. You will have to play matchups with him to start, but he could turn into someone you never take out of your lineup.

17th Pick: Miguel Cabrera 1B/DH DET
Category Strengths: AVG
Category Weaknesses: Potentially Everything

Usually when Miggy has a down year, he can still produce a nice batting average. This is my last dance with Miggy. I hope he bounces back and gives us another season of being an elite player, but I don’t have high hopes. I needed 1B and he was the best available at this time.

18th Pick: Miguel Sano 3B MIN
Category Strengths: HR
Category Weaknesses: AVG

If you read my Twins team preview, you will know that I think the Twins can compete this year. If they do, its because Sano and Buxton finally breakout. Sano will always have 50+ HR potential, but he could also see the minors again. One of the biggest boom/bust players of the season.

19th Pick: Austin Meadows OF TB
Category Strengths: ?
Category Weaknesses: ?

Meadows only has 191 plate appearances in the majors. He had power and could hit for a decent average in the minors, and flashed some last year. I like him a lot in dynasty leagues, but am unsure what we will get this year from him. He’s worth the gamble late in redraft leagues as he should secure a lineup spot.

Picks 20–21: DJ LeMahieu 2B NYY and Billy Hamilton OF KC

I put these two together as when I drafted them I looked at them as making up 1 player for me. I drafted Hamilton with the intent to lock up steals and I think Hamilton in Kansas could be in line for his largest steal total of his career. Lemahieu has a career .298 batting average which will help soften the impact Hamilton will have on my average. Neither will hit for a ton of power or rack up a ton or runs and rbis as both are slotted in the 9th slot according to Roster Resource. But being able to sure up steals and pair it with a good average hitter will help balance out my team.

Jake Roth, USA TODAY Sports

22: Joey Lucchesi SP SD
Category Strengths: K
Category Weaknesses: None

I mostly spend a lot of time playing in dynasty leagues and Lucchesi is someone I have been watching as he cruised through the minors. He has a lot of upside and with his Kershaw-like delivery he can fool hitters in any lineup. He is still young and has some trouble with walking batters. But with one of my late picks I like the gamble.

Pick 23: Cody Allen RP LAA
Category Strengths: SV, K
Category Weaknesses: ERA, WHIP

Saves are always hard to find and outside of the top 5 closers, no one can be trusted to keep their job. Allen is someone you can get late in your drafts who should have a good hold on the closers job in Los Angeles. Ty Buttery is around and could threaten him if he struggles, but I like Allen’s chances to get 20+ saves and pairing with him with Osuna and Jansen should get me in the top half of the saves category.

Pick 24: Kyle Gibson SP MIN
Category Strengths: No clear strengths
Category Weaknesses: K

Twins fans have waited a long time for the Gibson of 2018. Gibson came out and I’d argue was the ace of the team last year. He didn’t blow you away last year, but was consistent when he took the mound. 2018 could be the outlier for Gibson as only 1 other time in his 6 year career did he post an ERA under 4.4. Gibson is not being shown the respect he deserves after how he preformed last season and I will be one to capitalize on that.

Pick 25: Tyler White 1B HOU
Category Strengths: HR
Category Weaknesses: Potentially Everything

White took the world by storm to end last year, seemingly hitting everything out of the park for a stretch. With Gattis and Gonzalez out of the picture, there should be more opportunities for White to show us if the end of 2018 is the real him. He gives me an insurance policy if Miggy struggles or gets hurt. But I also won’t be surprised if I would have to cut him early in the season.

Overall I felt I drafted a well rounded team that is loaded with upside and some breakout potential, which is my goal in all my drafts. When you are drafting keep in mind these few tips:

• Outfield gets shallow fast
• Don’t chase or sell out for one category
• If you miss out on a top tier closer, take whoever falls to you late
• Unless Realmuto falls drastically or Grandal falls really late (which neither will happen in typical drafts) wait on catcher. Danny Jansen or Carson Kelly types are there late who will produce similar to the mid tier catchers.
• If you can pick your draft slot I want pick 1 or 2. If I can’t get those I want pick 10. Picks 3–10 could go in any order. Anyone taken with those picks has the chance to end as the 3rd best player. Pick 10 allows you to get the last one standing and get the earlier 2nd round pick. Pick 3 is the last pick I want this year as you pick the latest of that same group in round 2. Of course if Betts or Trout were to fall to pick 3 it would be a great selection, but if that happens, you may need to find a new league.

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