The Magic Bullet of Rankings
Let me preface this with saying that I’d like to think of myself as a creative person. I’ve played in bands, dabbled in creative writing, participated in podcasts, and took part in other “creative” endeavors. A few years ago, I fell into the emotional trap that is Fantasy Football. Last year was probably the first year I really took it seriously, and this year I’m digging into it even deeper.
Last year, I drafted based purely off of rankings generated by an average of “expert rankings.” I left any personal knowledge and understanding on the curb, assuming that these gentle people had to know more than me. Their rankings are on the internet. They have to be really good. They have to have a magic bullet.
Ha! In retrospect I realize that even at this point, there could be some sad sucker, aside from me of course, that has used my rankings or advice in a mock draft, an MFL10 or, by some weird chance, their redraft league. It doesn't take much to get your opinions out there to other people, and if someone is desperate enough to believe they should draft “player A” in round “X”, they’ll take any information that tips the scales in that direction into account.
Back to me being creative — So, with that being said, lets dig into how these “professionals” make their rankings. Surely there has to be some sort of magic formula that all of these “experts” use and live by. Some perfect Excel formula masterpiece that incorporates their previous stats, their match-ups and all of that jazz. And yeah, that’s part of it. Using the Excel VLookup function in various directions is a great way to determine projections. However, in this magical day we can leave it to the internet to get our projections for us. Some sites charge for the privilege, but if you dig deep enough, there are sites and pundits that provide projections that are just as accurate as the paid ones.
So, you can lock down previous stats. You can lock down projections. You know the match-ups and you can go player by player to see how they've performed against said match-up in the past, or see how their match-up has taken on their position in the past, injury risk etc. etc. etc. Lots of stats, lots of variables, but the information is all out there and with some time, effort, and vigorous copying and pasting, it can all be assembled into one mighty Excel workbook.
So, you have everything you need to create your rankings, but how do you do it? What is the secret sauce in all of this? Sadly, after months of Google searching, asking experts on Twitter, asking friends who write for major and minor publications, and asking randoms on the Fantasy Life App, I’ve discovered Element X.
Guts.
It all comes down to guts. I can lay out rankings based purely on statistical performance, but I don't like them. In the top 12 for instance, I find myself wanting to wiggle a player one spot here, another spot here. Going deeper into my rankings,I find myself doing some serious re-arranging. On top of that, the deeper into my rankings I go, the bigger the variance I find with the professionals. Same goes for professionals stacked against other professionals.
Discovering that all the rankings out there are essentially someone saying, “I think,” is like realizing all over again that there are no grown-ups in the world. We’re all just really big kids that like to pretend we have it all figured out.
After spending all this time, allocating all of this data, watching countless hours of YouTube videos and various other sources of “tape”, and teaching myself how to write more elaborate formulas in Excel, I’ve come to terms with the fact that, after all of it is said and done, I'm just going to say to myself, “Well, I just like this guy better,” and rank him higher than someone who technically should be ranked higher, because that's what the experts are doing, too. Sure, they can give you an explanation and back it up with some statistics and facts, but it still comes down to opinion because…
ITS A SCAM!!!
However, there is a silver lining in all of this, kids. There is some serious correlation with all of the expert rankings out there. Serious variances? Of course there are, but the correlation is higher. Using rankings provided by experts will improve your chances of having a successful draft significantly. But they will never, never ever, guarantee you a good season.
Aside from projections for whatever reason not living up to the hype, you can not assume anything about this game. Teams can change their style mid-season. Players can get injured. They can be suspended. A meteor could take out an entire stadium on Monday Night Football. Anything can and will happen.
So you have to develop your gut. That's why the experts are worth listening to. These guys don't have personal lives to speak of. They live in dark caves that they call their offices and watch tape all day, every day. They work for content hungry monsters that insist they produce article after article to feed the zeitgeist. Yes, we are all guilty of putting them into that position by constantly refreshing our browsers, but hey, they get paid to do it, so I don't feel bad for them.
On the high end of the spectrum, they fly out to mini camps, and have spots on ESPN. They are respected members of the sports community. On the low end of the spectrum, they’re just some guy you follow on Twitter.
Anyway, Ill be posting my overall 200 rankings in the next week or two. So remember to take them with a grain of salt and if you think a guy should be ranked higher or lower than I have them, you're probably right. Because it’s all meaningless.
So, go get creative and make some custom rankings because at the end of the day we’re all slaves to the average.
Follow me on Twitter @ theffsquid
Darthsquidius on the Fantasy Life App
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