Week 14 NFL DFS: Top Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Far too often in fantasy football, people worry about selecting too many players from one NFL team. They think, But what if the whole team has a bad day and I lose big? I believe that the inverse question doesn’t get asked nearly enough, though: what if the whole team has a great day and you win big?

This, my friends, is the concept of stacking in fantasy sports: the notion that assembling multiple players on one team that are in a good projected matchup will lead to more high-end outcomes in the long run than they will stinkers. In addition, as 4for4.com’s Sam Hoppen writes, “[When] you invest more of your lineup capital into one team (or game)… you only need to get that situation correct instead of relying on two or three sets of players to hit.” Stacking — and understanding stack theory — is crucial to nailing both your cash and tournament lineups on a consistent basis. Each week, we’ll explore a “ceiling” stack, a “differentiation” stack, and a “discount” stack using 4for4’s Stack Value Reports Tool.

Which high-upside games and lineup situations should you target in DFS main slates in Week 14?

Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5) vs. New York Giants; O/U 43.0

QB Justin Herbert, LAC ($7100 DK/$8400 FD)
RB Austin Ekeler, LAC ($8300 DK/$9200 FD)

You might have thought I’d be profiling the outlook for the Kansas City team in the ceiling stack this week, or maybe even one of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Buffalo Bills stacks possible. I’m instead leaning toward a stack that — while not a typical QB/WR combo — has the most potential upside by 4for4’s models. The Los Angeles Chargers will get to take a swing at the New York Giants this week, hosting them as almost 10-point favorites. Normally, I’d be concerned about recommending a ceiling stack in a game projected at 43 points for the total, but because we are employing a three-down running back on the favored home team in this unit, Austin Ekeler, that helps us naturally hedge in case the passing game is anemic because it can be. If the Giants roll over and play dead, quarterback Justin Herbert should be much more efficient, even if he has diminished volume of pass attempts. Then Ekeler will be tasked with running out the clock. Should this game end up closer, Herbert will be called upon more and Ekeler — who sees a ton of receiving work — will still be involved in the game plan. It’s foolproof.

If you look to load up on this game, Chargers wide receivers Josh Palmer and Jalen Guyton are both solid options at discount prices who can help you recoup some of the top dollar you’ll have to allocate to Ekeler. Finally, tight end Jared Cook has a decent projection this week — albeit in a matchup with a defense allowing the eighth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends. Still, he’s a cheap upside punt at that position and fits this stack well.

Consider Adding: WR Josh Palmer, LAC ($3000 DK/$4700 FD); WR Jalen Guyton, LAC ($3400 DK/$5200 FD); TE Jared Cook, LAC ($3200 DK/$5100 FD).

Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Cleveland Browns; O/U 42.5

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL ($7400 DK/$7900 FD)
WR Marquise Brown, BAL ($6300 DK/$7000 FD)

It’s a week full of low over/under games in play here for the stacks. The differentiation stack typically loves to get a low total projected in its games because that means we won’t be flocking with everyone else to an obvious high-scoring environment for our DFS options. This week, though, the Baltimore Ravens get the differentiation tag as road underdogs (in likely inclement weather) at the Cleveland Browns. Despite the “Dawg Pound’s” reputation, however, the Cleveland Browns have not been a formidable defense by any means in 2021. They allow the 18th-most aFPA to quarterbacks and 14th-most to wide receivers, which sets up Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown well to exploit a gap in the Week 14 DFS market. Jackson looks likely to end up in 1–10% of DFS lineups this week (perhaps on the higher end on FanDuel) and Marquise Brown is projected in 1–5%.

If you triple-down on three Ravens’ pass-catchers in this game, tight end Mark Andrews is the way to go. He and Brown together make up 55.8% of the Ravens’ team target share over the last five games, meaning that you’d have the lion’s share of passes for an underdog team here. If you wanted to hedge on the bad weather, Devonta Freeman is the running back to roster in the Baltimore offense, or you could always roll out a sneaky Nick Chubb appearance to run it back with the lead back from the favored Browns.

Consider Adding: TE Mark Andrews, BAL ($5900 DK/$6900 FD); RB Devonta Freeman, BAL ($5700 DK/$6300 FD); RB Nick Chubb, CLE ($7600 DK/$7500 FD).

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals; O/U 48.5

QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF ($5800 DK/$6700 FD)
TE George Kittle, SF ($6900 DK/$7100 FD)

Over the San Francisco 49ers’ last month, tight end George Kittle has seen a whopping 29.4% of the team’s passing-game targets — a top-five mark among all pass-catchers in that span of time. It only makes sense that one of the best budget-conscious stack ideas, then, would integrate the highly-utilized Kittle with his extremely-efficient quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo. This duo is in the top-five most cost-efficient combos for the week, just behind the Bucs, Ravens, and Bills — each of which cost at least $1000 more in salary allocation. We of course know that Kittle will likely have a high rostership rate, as one of the best tight ends in the league, but Garoppolo is unlikely to draw many eyes despite the Cincinnati Bengals defense’s 12th-highest ranking by aFPA to quarterbacks (they rank ninth-highest by aFPA to tight ends, also). There may be a lot of people on half of this stack, so employ this combo with caution in GPP’s, but the upside at such a low cost makes it extremely worthwhile.