Week 15 Fantasy Football: Players to Start or Sit
If you have played fantasy football even once, you know the excruciating agony one faces in making a lineup decision. A mediocre player facing a bad defense, or a great player facing an extremely tough defense: which do you go with? Should you start that quarterback on a multiple-game slide because he has major weekly upside, or should you go with another one that’s a little safer?
These are the questions we rattle through our minds all week, tinkering with lineups over and over until kickoff, and driving ourselves absolutely batty in the process. Well, question, tinker, and drive no longer: each week, I’ll highlight a few players at each position that are sneakily startable or surprisingly sittable based on that week’s matchups.
Of course, every league is different. A player I would sit in a typical 12-team half-PPR league might be your best option in your 47-team touchdown-only league; that’s okay to start them then. These are just tidbits of advice to help guide your thinking about the week’s matchups and each player’s fantasy ceiling and floor in the right context.
Without any further ado: which players should you start, and which should you sit in Week 15?
Quarterbacks
Start: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. WAS
Sit: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks at LAR
It’s likely Jalen Hurts’ ankle injury that has fantasy managers leaning away from starting the Philadelphia Eagles’ dual-threat fantasy star in Week 15 — but I’m confident in his value here. Hurts didn’t play Week 13 at all, so that and the Eagles’ bye in Week 14 (plus a few extra days of rest with this week pushed back to Tuesday) should have helped him get back to 100% healthy. Hurts’ value when on the field is indisputable: he is top-six in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks, and he has topped 20 fantasy points in all but four games this season. He also gets the Washington Football Team if he plays, and they allow the 10th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to quarterbacks.
Russell Wilson hasn’t been particularly bad since returning from his hand injury if we toss out Weeks 10 and 11, when he was clearly still working back into form. Over the last three games, Wilson has averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game; the only problem is that his two games bringing up the average were against horrendously bad defenses. This week, Wilson has a much more average-to-tough matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, who allow the 14th-most aFPA to quarterbacks. If the Seattle Seahawks’ star quarterback is at all banged-up while also missing top target Tyler Lockett, he could be in major fantasy trouble.
Running Backs
Start: Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots at IND; Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins vs. NYJ
Sit: Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers at BAL; Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team at PHI
With Damien Harris ruled out early with a hamstring injury, the New England Patriots’ backfield is rookie Rhamondre Stevenson’s to command in Week 15. The last time Stevenson got lead duties all to himself, he toted the ball 24 times for 78 rushing yards. In Week 10, Stevenson also saw 24 touches, creating 114 yards and two touchdowns on those (including four catches). It’s not likely that he’ll get a huge chunk of receiving work this week, but the Pats have shown they trust the burly rookie to lead the backfield on the ground with monumental volume for this era. He’s a low-end RB1 especially thanks to a matchup with an Indianapolis Colts defense allowing the 11th-most aFPA to running backs.
It’s all systems go here for the Miami Dolphins in Week 15, as you’ll see soon. Over the last two weeks, Myles Gaskin hasn’t been the every-down back he was earlier in the 2021 season, but he still saw a combined 35 touches in that span of time against fairly tough run defenses. This week he gets the New York Jets, who allow the most aFPA to running backs. The last two weeks, New York has given up 304 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 69 attempts. Volume and efficiency are likely here for Gaskin to be an RB2/FLEX.
Aaron Jones is still working back from a troublesome knee injury and now an illness to boot. The Green Bay Packers are also traveling across the country to play the toughest run defense in the league, with the Baltimore Ravens allowing the fewest aFPA to running backs. Add in a dash of heavy competition from second-year bruiser A.J. Dillon and you have a recipe for a low-end RB2 outlook in Jones. Give him one more week before you return him to your starting groups in fantasy football.
Last week was a train wreck for Washington Football Team running back Antonio Gibson, who in Weeks 12 and 13 had averaged 32 touches, 129 yards from scrimmage, and 0.5 touchdowns. Week 14, on the other hand, was a divisional shellacking from the Dallas Cowboys that saw Gibson pulled for most of the game while backups tried to get the WFT back into it. This game will be against another tough rushing defense in the Eagles, who are eighth-lowest by aFPA to running backs. Gibson also has competition for carries emerging in Jaret Patterson and Jonathan Williams, while J.D. McKissic could potentially return to poach targets.
Wide Receivers
Start: DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins vs. NYJ; Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts vs. NE
Sit: Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team at PHI; Cole Beasley, Buffalo Bills vs. CAR
When one gets the chance to start players from a decent offense against the Jets, one should take that chance immediately and not look back. That’s what we have with the Dolphins this week, as DeVante Parker gets to start against them — likely without high-volume slot receiver Jaylen Waddle as well. The Jets allow the sixth-most aFPA to wide receivers, and Parker is coming off a solid first game back from injury, in which he saw five targets, catching five for 62 yards. Don’t overthink this; Parker is a solid WR2 with upside this week.
A matchup for the Colts’ wide receivers with the Pats’ cornerbacks sounds troublesome for fantasy, as New England allows the fifth-fewest aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Michael Pittman Jr.’s individual matchup with J.C. Jackson, however, should be much easier. Jackson is allowing a high target rate on his coverage snaps, while also giving up an above-average rate of yards per coverage snap. Pittman himself is a top-20 wide receiver in points per game coming into this week, so sitting him should not be an option. He’s a fantasy WR3 with major upside.
Washington wide receiver Terry McLaurin is rapidly shaping up as a player to flat-out not rely on this week in fantasy. He suffered a concussion in Week 14 and could still be feeling the after-effects into this week — if he doesn’t miss the game altogether because of it. Even if he does play, the Eagles allow the fourth-fewest aFPA to wide receivers, and there are injury questions under center for Philly as well. In addition, with this game getting moved back to Tuesday, there will be few options for you to slot in should McLaurin be a game-time scratch. Don’t risk the fantasy playoffs on a bad matchup for a player dealing with a serious brain injury.
There could be targets open in the Buffalo Bills’ offense with Emmanuel Sanders sidelined in Week 15, but I wouldn’t bet they will go to Cole Beasley. The Carolina Panthers aren’t a particularly convincing defense — allowing the 15th-most aFPA to wide receivers — but Beasley had been on a major skid before his 11-target Week 14 performance. Despite this outburst of looks, Beasley still finished with just 64 receiving yards, as he plays an incredibly low average depth of target role, and has little yards-after-catch ability. He’s a fringe FLEX consideration in deeper leagues but isn’t must-start by any means.
Tight Ends
Start: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins vs. NYJ
Sit: Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys at NYG
Start all your Dolphins. Slot receiver Jaylen Waddle will almost certainly miss this game, but in the three weeks prior, he saw an average of 10 targets per game. A decent portion of those will almost certainly go to big slot/receiving tight end Mike Gesicki, who operates in the middle of the field as well. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa loves to find his slot guy, so there’s a great chance for Gesicki to exploit a weak Jets’ defense who allow the third-most aFPA to opposing tight ends.
The Dallas Cowboys are strong favorites against the New York Giants in Week 15, which means it’s unlikely Dallas will have to throw a ton to get the win against their divisional rivals. That’s a bummer for tight end Dalton Schultz, who earned just 0.9 fantasy points last week in their blowout of Washington. Making matters stickier, the Giants rank ninth-toughest by aFPA allowed to tight ends. Schultz is outside the top-10 options at tight end this week.
