Week 15 NFL DFS: Best Value Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
We all love to find the best value for what we pay. Whether it’s the clearance rack at your local department store, the “used” sticker on a former library book, or the five-dollar movie bin at the combination gas station/chain pizza restaurant, getting the most bang for your buck is crucial. Not maximizing your value-cost ratio — in this economy — is just silly.
When opening up your virtual wallet, it’s also important to find quality players that are undervalued by the NFL DFS markets. This column will run down the players bringing you the most impact while also not breaking your bankroll, using 4for4.com’s Player Pricing Tool as the basis for our analysis. We’ll look at players for both DraftKings and FanDuel and find fantasy starters with slashed sale prices.
Here are a few discounted players you should consider for your DFS lineups in Week 15.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
DraftKings: $6500 | FanDuel: $7500
Over his last four games, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has averaged 260 passing yards, one touchdown, and 1.3 interceptions. This rough patch in the star passer’s season has led to his salary in DFS going from “premium” a month or so ago to affordable now in Week 15. His underlying numbers aren’t that concerning, however; Prescott’s turnover-worthy play rate for the season remains bottom-third among quarterbacks to have dropped back at least 100 times, and his big-time throw rate is top-third. Prescott’s adjusted completion rate (completions divided by attempts minus receiver drops) is league-average exactly. With no real issues behind the scenes, the only question is whether the New York Giants’ third-lowest ranking by schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks shows up or their 12th-highest ranking against wide receivers. I’d bet on the latter.
Other Options: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia vs. Washington (DK: $6600, FD: $7800); Justin Fields, Chicago vs. Minnesota (DK: $5500, FD: $6800); Tua Tagovailoa, Miami vs. Jets (DK: $5700, FD: $7400).
Running Back
Sony Michel, Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
DraftKings: $5800 | FanDuel: $6800
With two games under his belt as the Los Angeles Rams’ undisputed lead back now, Sony Michel has averaged 22 rushing attempts, 100 yards rushing, and 2.5 targets in the passing game. With Darrell Henderson looking more and more likely to miss his third game in a row, Michel projects as our top value by far at the running back position. The Rams are playing at home as favorites — good signs for a running back’s projection — and the Seattle Seahawks are offering up the second-most aFPA to running backs among the league. With a salary more akin to a high-priced handcuff than a three-down starter, if Michel gets the nod again, he’s all systems go.
Other Options: David Montgomery, Chicago vs. Minnesota (DK: $5900, FD: $6500); Chase Edmonds, Arizona at Detroit (DK: $5100, FD: $6500); Myles Gaskin, Miami vs. Jets (DK: $5500, FD: $6600).
Wide Receiver
Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills vs. Carolina Panthers
DraftKings: $3700 | FanDuel: $4900
When doing this DFS values column, I have a few rules I try to navigate in my recommendations. I try to avoid higher-priced players because, while they might be the best points-per-dollar option, it’s hard to call a guy at a $9000 salary a “value”. I also try to avoid the other end of the spectrum, where the player’s points projection has them essentially as a FLEX option only but their price is so low that the value screams at you. Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabriel Davis falls into the latter category, but actually has screaming scoring upside to go with his already tasty points-per-dollar value. Veteran Emmanuel Sanders is nursing a knee injury from last week that should keep him sidelined in Week 15 too, so Davis will likely start for the Bills again; he ran a route on over 80% of quarterback Josh Allen’s drop backs in Week 14. Davis is also among the top-60 pass-catchers in team target share inside an opponent’s 10-yard line, while playing for an offense that has attempted the fifth-most passes in scoring range. Though low-priced, Davis has both a stable floor and a high ceiling in DFS this week.
Other Options: DeVante Parker, Miami vs. Jets (DK: $4300, FD: $5800); Christian Kirk, Arizona at Detroit (DK: $5300, FD: $6000); Darnell Mooney, Chicago vs. Minnesota (DK: $5500, FD: $6000).
Tight End
Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions
DraftKings: $5400 | FanDuel: $5300
It’s definitely preferred to roster the possession, ball-control aspects of a passing game when that team is projected as big favorites over another. You have to assume that the favorite will both be able to score early (and often) and then use the possession target to keep the chains moving in a not-too-risky sort of way. That’s the kind of profile Arizona Cardinals tight end Zach Ertz offers us in Week 15. To start, the opposing Detroit Lions rank 11th-highest by aFPA allowed to tight ends. The Cardinals will also be down star receiver/security blanket DeAndre Hopkins in this game, meaning Ertz’s team-leading (aside from Hopkins) 18.3% team target share will likely grow even more. His average depth of target could remain fairly low (which would mean his yardage might not swell a ton), but I wouldn’t be stunned to see double-digit targets in this game for one of Arizona’s top receiving threats in a blowout script.
Other Options: David Njoku, Cleveland (DK: $2900, FD: $5000); Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington at Philadelphia (DK: $3400, FD: $4500); Gerald Everett, Seattle at Rams (DK: $3500, FD: $4900).
