Week 15 NFL DFS: Top Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Far too often in fantasy football, people worry about selecting too many players from one NFL team. They think, But what if the whole team has a bad day and I lose big? I believe that the inverse question doesn’t get asked nearly enough, though: what if the whole team has a great day and you win big?

This, my friends, is the concept of stacking in fantasy sports: the notion that assembling multiple players on one team that are in a good projected matchup will lead to more high-end outcomes in the long run than they will stinkers. In addition, as 4for4.com’s Sam Hoppen writes, “[When] you invest more of your lineup capital into one team (or game)… you only need to get that situation correct instead of relying on two or three sets of players to hit.” Stacking — and understanding stack theory — is crucial to nailing both your cash and tournament lineups on a consistent basis. Each week, we’ll explore a “ceiling” stack, a “differentiation” stack, and a “discount” stack using 4for4’s Stack Value Reports Tool.

Which high-upside games and lineup situations should you target in DFS main slates in Week 15?

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Baltimore Ravens; O/U 43.5

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB ($7500 DK/$7600 FD)
WR Davante Adams, GB ($8900 DK/$8500 FD)

Temperatures drop, weather gets worse, and therefore scoring in the NFL goes down once we hit the heart of December. Still, it’s stunning to see just how low the totals projected across the league are this week; no team has a Vegas line projecting their game for more than 47.5 points. With this in mind, reliably high-quality scoring options become worth way more than players who are simply cheaper when we analyze cost-effectiveness. Thus, we turn to the Green Bay Packers as our ceiling stack of the week. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Davante Adams are essentially unparalleled as a battery over the past six years, and this year is no different: by PPR scoring, this dynamic duo has averaged 42.2 fantasy points per game this season, and don’t look to be stopping any time soon. The Baltimore Ravens are their opponents this week, but Baltimore ranks seventh-highest by schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks and ninth-highest by aFPA to wide receivers.

If you’d look to multi-stack this game, Green Bay deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a great option to bring some volatile upside to air with Adams’ steady engine of production. Ravens tight end Mark Andrews is their favorite target all over the field, so anchoring the tight end spot with a high-volume receiving threat and assuming Baltimore will chase Green Bay all game is a smart move as well. Finally, you could easily assume Green Bay runs away with this game and slot in running back Aaron Jones, who is possibly at his cheapest usable salary of the season in Week 15.

Consider Adding: WR Josh Palmer, LAC ($3000 DK/$4700 FD); WR Jalen Guyton, LAC ($3400 DK/$5200 FD); TE Jared Cook, LAC ($3200 DK/$5100 FD).

Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) at Denver Broncos; O/U 44.0

QB Joe Burrow, CIN ($6100 DK/$7300 FD)
WR Tee Higgins, CIN ($6500 DK/$6800 FD)

In a week where low scoring environments reign supreme, the 44-point over/under in this Cincinnati Bengals-Denver Broncos tilt stands out as being fairly compelling. That’s why it is surprising to me that the Bengals’ combo of quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Tee Higgins are both projected for low rostership in Week 15. Higgins is expected to show up in about 5–10% of DFS lineups this week, while Burrow should be in no more than 5% himself, and this pairing is extremely affordable for your DFS salary caps. Perhaps it’s just the allure of rookie phenom Ja’Marr Chase that has made Higgins an afterthought, but he’s coming off of three straight games of 16 PPR points or more (averaging almost 23 points per game). Perhaps it’s the reputation of the Denver defense, but they are just about average in terms of aFPA allowed to both wide receivers and quarterbacks (18th-highest in both). Either way, there is an inexplicable gap in the market here for a quality Cincy stack that is likely to be low-rostered and extremely affordable.

If you multi-stack this game, I’d try to keep differentiated. Running back Joe Mixon has a shockingly-low projected rostership percentage (under 10%), but the Broncos allow the 10th-most aFPA to running backs. Denver wide receiver Jerry Jeudy would be a fine run-it-back play to get a piece of the other side of this game, and he should be rostered in 5% or fewer of lineups. You could also get weird and add in Broncos running back Melvin Gordon, who should be the lesser-rostered of their backfield duo, but still has a good chance to see high-value touches.

Consider Adding: TE Mark Andrews, BAL ($5900 DK/$6900 FD); RB Devonta Freeman, BAL ($5700 DK/$6300 FD); RB Nick Chubb, CLE ($7600 DK/$7500 FD).

Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs. New York Jets; O/U 41.0

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA ($5800 DK/$6700 FD)
WR DeVante Parker, MIA ($6900 DK/$7100 FD)

Finally, our discount stack of the week is a little dollop of the Miami Dolphins’ offense, on the road and looking to thump their division rivals, the New York Jets. Across their last six games, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has averaged 231.8 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns, and 0.7 interceptions per game — all told, not a horrendous level of production for a passer operating at this cheap of a salary. Wide receiver DeVante Parker has remained one of Tagovailoa’s favorite targets despite injuries, also, as they’ve connected for 13-of-16 targets, going for 147 receiving yards in Parker’s two active games since Week 4. Considering Parker’s extremely low salary, plus the potential absence of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Myles Gaskin due to COVID protocols, the ceiling is sky-high for this duo in Week 15.