Week 17 Fantasy Football: Players to Start or Sit
If you have played fantasy football even once, you know the excruciating agony one faces in making a lineup decision. A mediocre player facing a bad defense, or a great player facing an extremely tough defense: which do you go with? Should you start that quarterback on a multiple-game slide because he has major weekly upside, or should you go with another one that’s a little safer?
These are the questions we rattle through our minds all week, tinkering with lineups over and over until kickoff, and driving ourselves absolutely batty in the process. Well, question, tinker, and drive no longer: each week, I’ll highlight a few players at each position that are sneakily startable or surprisingly sittable based on that week’s matchups.
Of course, every league is different. A player I would sit in a typical 12-team half-PPR league might be your best option in your 47-team touchdown-only league; that’s okay to start them then. These are just tidbits of advice to help guide your thinking about the week’s matchups and each player’s fantasy ceiling and floor in the right context.
Without any further ado: which players should you start, and which should you sit in Week 17?
Quarterbacks
Start: Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers vs. HOU
Sit: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans vs. MIA
You might not realize just how much value San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance has this week despite going up against a Houston Texans defense giving up the 10th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks in 2021. In his lone start this year, Lance ran 16 times for 89 yards, and he has rushed on over a quarter of his total snaps this year. Lance has a high floor thanks to his rushing, and if he has begun to take steps forward in passing, he could make for a sneaky-good fantasy football option. Expect the Niners to stretch out their first-round rookie star and give him a long audition here.
Just when we thought he’d be an every-year fantasy darling, Ryan Tannehill has fallen backward to being just okay. This week, his projection looks incredibly dicey in a matchup with his former team, the Miami Dolphins, who allow the fourth-fewest aFPA to quarterbacks. Despite the “#RevengeGame” narrative, Tannehill has been aggressively mediocre in recent weeks and might not rise to the challenge. Over the last two months, Tannehill has passed 15 fantasy points in a game just three times, averaging 14.0 fantasy points per game. This is thanks to four games with fewer than 200 passing yards, not to mention a ratio of five passing touchdowns to seven interceptions. Avoid Tannehill this week.
Running Backs
Start: Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills vs. ATL; Dare Ogunbowale, Jacksonville Jaguars at NE
Sit: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals at DAL; Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins at TEN
Devin Singletary is a surprise entry into the top-12 of 4for4’s rankings for Week 17. The Buffalo Bills earlier this season had rotated through a three-man committee, but Zack Moss has been limited to occasional goal-line work while Matt Breida is a healthy scratch altogether. Atlanta allows the eighth-most aFPA to running backs, making the volume Singletary is seeing that much more valuable if Buffalo gets a big lead.
Dare Ogunbowale should have a similar workload to Singletary, but — as a member of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ talent-poor offense — he will have a tougher road to hoe to fantasy stardom this week. Ogunbowale was the team’s every-down back when James Robinson tore his Achilles’ last week, and with little competition for touches and a team that should be passing to him frequently, he makes for a fine FLEX option in Week 17.
The Arizona Cardinals’ power back, James Conner, has barely practiced leading into Week 17. Nursing a heel injury, Conner got just a limited practice in on Friday and was noticeably hampered by the malady that kept him out of last week as well. What makes things even tougher for trusting him in fantasy football is a date with Dallas’ defense, allowing the fourth-fewest aFPA to running backs. Though Conner’s receiving potential has flashed this year, he’s primarily a runner, and a foot injury and strong defensive line make him a bad gamble in the most crucial week of the year.
The rationale here is simple: Myles Gaskin has become the shortest end of a three-headed committee for Miami and is heading into a game against the third-ranked defense by aFPA against running backs. Who is Gaskin’s biggest fantasy enemy this week: the Tennessee Titans, or his own teammates? It’s hard to say, but either way you’re not playing him here.
Wide Receivers
Start: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay Packers vs. MIN; Braxton Berrios, New York Jets vs. TB
Sit: D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers at NO; Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team vs. PHI
Green Bay Packers field-stretcher Marquez Valdes-Scantling should get plenty of playing time this week against the Pack’s divisional rival Minnesota Vikings. MVS was out in Week 16 on COVID-IR, but the last time he saw Minnesota purple lined up against him, he dusted them for 123 yards and a touchdown on four catches (10 targets). Maybe Green Bay dials down the passing in a game without a starting opposing quarterback, but MVS is a good bet in a matchup with the defense allowing the second-highest aFPA to wide receivers.
No Elijah Moore or Jamison Crowder again means another week of Braxton Berrios: New York Jets’ WR1. In two of his last three games, he has operated as the de facto top dog, averaging 5.5 receptions for 44.5 receiving yards on eight average targets. He’s not particularly high ceiling, but Berrios has a fine WR4/FLEX floor in PPR formats, especially against a defense allowing the 10th-most aFPA to wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers have been a complete offensive trainwreck of late, but D.J. Moore’s individual talent has kept him a somewhat viable fantasy option in PPR formats. An average of just under 11 targets per game over the last month has meant plenty of opportunities for Moore to catch the ball, but poor quarterback play has meant those targets are less than viable. Moore is still a WR2/3 in the fantasy championships, but his poor passers and the New Orleans defense allowing the ninth-fewest aFPA to wide receivers should give you pause.
Poor quarterback play has finally caught up with the Washington Football Team too, dampening any excitement for wideout Terry McLaurin. For the last month, McLaurin has averaged just 4.5 targets per game despite great game scripts for passing production, turning in an average of 28.3 scoreless receiving yards on two catches per game. A duel with Philadelphia, eighth-ranked by aFPA allowed to wide receivers, looms, making McLaurin’s profile even more dodgy for the fantasy championship week. McLaurin is a WR3/4 here, and you can probably find a better option in Week 17.
Tight Ends
Start: Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks vs. DET
Sit: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons at BUF
The Seattle Seahawks are finally getting some production out of tight end Gerald Everett, who has caught four passes for 60-plus yards in each of his last two games and scored three touchdowns over the last five contests. The Detroit Lions allow the fifth-most aFPA to tight ends, which should work in Everett’s favor here as well. He’s a fine low-end TE1 this week.
Kyle Pitts could still be considered a low-end TE1 here, if for no other reason than sheer volume. The Atlanta Falcons’ rookie first-rounder has seen fewer than six targets in just two games this year, catching fewer than four passes in just five games. He has scored just once, however, and the Atlanta offense seems entirely stuck in neutral. Now headed to Buffalo in January, against a defense allowing the fourth-fewest aFPA to tight ends, Pitts is a player that could be benched if you have a better option.
