Week 17 NFL DFS: Top Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Far too often in fantasy football, people worry about selecting too many players from one NFL team. They think, But what if the whole team has a bad day and I lose big? I believe that the inverse question doesn’t get asked nearly enough, though: what if the whole team has a great day and you win big?

This, my friends, is the concept of stacking in fantasy sports: the notion that assembling multiple players on one team that are in a good projected matchup will lead to more high-end outcomes in the long run than they will stinkers. In addition, as 4for4.com’s Sam Hoppen writes, “[When] you invest more of your lineup capital into one team (or game)… you only need to get that situation correct instead of relying on two or three sets of players to hit.” Stacking — and understanding stack theory — is crucial to nailing both your cash and tournament lineups on a consistent basis. Each week, we’ll explore a “ceiling” stack, a “differentiation” stack, and a “discount” stack using 4for4’s Stack Value Reports Tool.

Which high-upside games and lineup situations should you target in DFS main slates in Week 17?

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) at Baltimore Ravens; O/U 46.0

QB Matthew Stafford, LAR ($7100 DK/$7900 FD)
WR Cooper Kupp, LAR ($9500 DK/$8200 FD)

You’re not going to find much of a better matchup this week than investing in the Los Angeles Rams offense as they head to take on the Baltimore Ravens. Sure, the 46-point game total isn’t by any means the highest on the week, but a projected close game which should keep both teams passing late into the fourth quarter is a good sign for fantasy value. In addition, the Rams are favorites despite being on the road, so Vegas is expecting them to score well. Finally, in terms of game context, Baltimore allows the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to both the quarterback and wide receiver positions, which sets up 2021 fantasy MVP duo Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp very well here.

Stafford and Kupp have combined for 42.4 half-PPR fantasy points per game this year, so they could win your DFS week all on their own here. In case you wanted to multi-stack this game, though, you could consider a few other players playing here. L.A. wideout Van Jefferson presents tremendous upside on any given play as the Rams’ designated deep-ball specialist. In addition, if you think the Rams will roll a potentially Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team, running back Sony Michel makes for an excellent play — especially now that head coach Sean McVay has admitted it’s unlikely Cam Akers returns for Week 17. Finally, you could run things back with either tight end Mark Andrews as a high rostership safety valve (more on that later) or Baltimore’s own deep threat, Marquise Brown. Brown is questionable with an ankle injury, but Rashod Bateman would make for a fine (and even cheaper) replacement if he can’t go.

Consider Adding: WR Van Jefferson, LAR ($5300 DK/$6000 FD); RB Sony Michel, LAR ($5800 DK/$7100 FD); TE Mark Andrews, BAL ($7400 DK/8700 FD); WR Marquise Brown, BAL ($5900 DK/$6300 FD).

Arizona Cardinals (+6) at Dallas Cowboys; O/U 51.5

QB Kyler Murray, ARZ ($7300 DK/$8400 FD)
WR Christian Kirk, ARZ ($5800 DK/$5900 FD)

This week is one where there are some great quarterbacks in elite matchups, so someone good in an only-okay matchup has to fall between the cracks when it comes to DFS rostership rates. That someone, in my opinion, is Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray. Murray is projected to be rostered in 1–10% of DFS lineups this week, making him a player with elite upside that not many DFS managers will be on. Part of the hesitation to roster him surely comes from a matchup with the Dallas Cowboys, who are allowing the ninth-fewest aFPA to quarterbacks, but any worries about Murray’s matchup are surely offset by the ninth-most aFPA ranking Dallas holds when dealing with wide receivers. That, as well as a 28.8% team target share over the last two weeks for wide receiver Christian Kirk, make this a great differentiation stack. Kirk should be rostered in just 5–10% of DFS lineups, is extremely affordable, and projects as a top-30 wide receiver by 4for4’s Week 17 projections. This duo will be underutilized this week, and that’s your chance to jump on them.

If you’re multi-stacking this game — and you should, with a total north of 50 points and the Cards as almost touchdown underdogs — the first option is to roll another receiver in like tight end Zach Ertz. Ertz holds the highest target share on the Cardinals since DeAndre Hopkins got injured and has scored 9.9 fantasy points per game. Another option would be to add in dual-threat running back Chase Edmonds, though he is one of the chalkiest options on the slate due to having no competition for touches this week. Ezekiel Elliott would be a fine substitute for Edmonds in terms of low rostership, but he’d obviously cost more in salary. Finally, you could look to wide receiver Amari Cooper as a run-back option that would play more into a shootout game script. This is a game I wouldn’t mind stacking heavily in tourney lineups, due to its potency and options all around to keep rostership low.

Consider Adding: TE Zach Ertz, ARZ ($5200 DK/$5500 FD); RB Chase Edmonds, ARZ ($5700 DK/$6500 FD); RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL ($7100 DK/$7500 FD); WR Amari Cooper, DAL ($6600 DK/$6700 FD).

Baltimore Ravens (+4.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams; O/U 46.0

QB Tyler Huntley, BAL ($5600 DK/$6100 FD)
TE Mark Andrews, BAL ($7400 DK/$8700 FD)

As mentioned before, tight end Mark Andrews looks like he’s going to be a fine — and secure — value in fantasy football this week as the safety outlet for whichever Baltimore passer lines up under center. With the week waning away, it’s looking ever more likely that backup quarterback Tyler Huntley will draw another start for the Ravens, and that makes a Huntley-Andrews combo our top discount stack of the week. You might be a bit concerned, though: can a backup quarterback really get me there in a big week for DFS contests? In three games with at least 60 offensive snaps or more, Huntley has averaged 20.6 fantasy points. The secret behind this? You guessed it: his rushing ability, which has added 9.5 points per game for him. In an offense designed to utilize quarterback athleticism, Huntley is just as good as Lamar Jackson at producing fantasy points.

Questions might still abound: how does Andrews fare when it’s not star Jackson tossing him the rock? Will Huntley be able to feed him well enough? In the three games with Huntley, Andrews has seen 11.3 targets on average, compared to 8.2 with Jackson (29.8% team target share vs. 24.3%). He has averaged fewer yards per reception (11.1 to 13.3), but the added target load and a higher expected touchdown rate boosts Andrews’ half-PPR per game to 21.6 from 13.2 without Huntley. Fire up these two as a locked-in battery for Week 17 in DFS.