Who will be the most valuable fantasy rookie in 2019?
We see a ton of talent at the QB and skill positions being drafted to the NFL each year, but there isn’t always opportunity awaiting on their respective teams. Not only that, but it takes at least a year for most WRs to get fully acclimated to the NFL, and even longer for most TEs. RBs have a much easier time becoming fantasy relevant off the bat, so they’ll always be the more sought after rookies. Let’s take a quick look at the rookies coming in this year.
N’Keal Harry — There is a clear void in the Patriots WR room, and with Gronk gone, Harry can get his. However, the Patriots playbook and what they ask of WRs is complex, so there can be a steep learning curve. His ADP at the 7to 8th round turn isn’t terrible, but it might be early considering the Patriots can easily find other less conventional ways to move the ball.
Josh Jacobs — Jon Gruden’s RB1s have averaged a pace of 296.5 touches per year. His RB1s actually averaged 266 touches per year, but when adjusted for missed games and guys taking over workloads a few weeks into the season, there was actually some serious opportunity for his lead back. Even with that high touch total, there was still room for his RB2 to get touches as well. So even if a guy like Jalen Richard remains the primary passing down back, Jacobs seems to be walking into one of the only obvious opportunity voids in the NFL. His draft capital of the first round should help him push through minor inadequacies.
David Montgomery — Assuming Montgomery doesn’t start off slow in training camp, I would assume he’d take over the role Nagy wanted Jordan Howard to play at the beginning of last season. Nagy desperately wanted Howard to be that versatile three-down back, giving him nine targets and 70-plus percent of snaps over the first two games. When Howard failed, his snaps went down right away and Tarik Cohen’s snap percentage started to hover around 50 percent for the rest of the season. Montgomery makes guys miss, and has some serious upside if he gets the three-down opportunity. Them trading up to get him doesn’t hurt his chances.
Kyler Murray — Murray’s taking control of Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense, and so far the reviews have been good out of OTAs and minicamp. There’s a ton of passing offense to go around, and they’ll likely try to get off a ton of plays. With all that opportunity for a talent like Murray, add in his rushing ability, then the talent he has at WR and RB, it’s hard not to think he has a great shot at winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, and potentially being a surprise QB1 for fantasy. SBD seems to agree, as he’s their favorite to win it.
Miles Sanders — With second round pick Sanders, you have a guy who can do everything. He can run, catch and pass protect. He’s probably the most versatile and talented RB they’ve had in that backfield since Pederson took over. Every other RB they had either wasn’t talented enough in the run game or not versatile enough to handle pass-catching. The potential fantasy vulnerability in this backfield is the fact that Pederson has used a committee approach during his tenure, and that he won’t be afraid of starting Sanders slow like he did when they traded or Jay Ajayi. That trade was during the middle of the season, so Ajayi didn’t have a camp like Sanders will have, but it’s still worth noting. Sanders has upside of being a three-down back, but the presence of Howard might make it tough for Sanders to dominate the backfield snaps.
AJ Brown — It’s going to be tough for Brown to distinguish himself in fantasy in his rookie year while among Corey Davis, Adam Humphries and Delanie Walker in an offense that couldn’t support even one viable fantasy WR in 2018. If he played in the slot, he would be a lot more interesting, but the fact that he has to start his career on the outside because of the Humphries signing makes me look forward to his 2020.
Marqise Brown — Hollywood’s a really talented WR, but Lamar Jackson will likely not make the huge improvements needed in the pass game in just one offseason. For that reason it might be safer to avoid Ravens WRs for now and wait until 2020 for taking a shot at fantasy relevance.
DK Metcalf — Upside isn’t huge for any Seahawks WR as long as Brian Schottenheimer is the offensive coordinator. He’s never been in the Top-12 in pass attempts and has never been in the Top 15 in passing yards. So do we have to depend on efficiency out of these WRs again? It’s not what I personally like to depend on for fantasy. Volume is king, and high efficiency without volume usually leads to regression at some point. Metcalf has the physical tools to dominate, but route running and agility is his issue. It’s possible a combination of that and the lack of volume holds him back during his rookie year.
TJ Hockensen — Hockensen can do it all, and it’s rare for a rookie TE to come in and play every snap. There are talks about this potentially happening with Hockensen, and if that happens he can be worth drafting late, even though it’s rare for a rookie TE to shine, even at his skill level.
Parris Campbell — One of the best situations for any WR to step into, Campbell might end up starting in the slot for the Andrew Luck. Campbell is a YAC guy, and knows how to find spots in the zone, catch the ball and turn upfield. He’s a perfect fit for Frank Reich’s offense, and he’s probably my favorite rookie WR in 2019.
Damien Harris — The Patriots backfield rotation is always anyone’s guess going into any given year. Sony Michel’s knee issues have seem to have resurfaced, and they just happened to have drafted a versatile RB in the third round. At the very least, Harris will probably be their goal line back, but he has a shot at winning some work from Michel. Take the cheapest of the Patriots RBs.
Andy Isabella — Isabella primarily played on the outside in college, and had 80 percent of his production come from the outside (PFF). However, due to his size, it’s possible he starts on the inside. The range of outcomes for Isabella is vast. The Cards can start him on the outside and take advantage of his deep skills, start on the inside, let him play both or play him in a limited role in his rookie year because of the depth at the position after Arizona also drafted WR Hakeem Butler. Still, Isabella led college WRs in yards per route run, and his 13th round ADP seems like a nice buy for the potential. Kingsbury’s slot WRs have done serious work in the past, so if Isabella is one of those guys, he gets a boost.
The Fantasy Life app is the best sports community app to talk fantasy football, basketball, baseball, hockey, soccer, WWE, MMA, Nascar, golf, eSports, or anything else you would hear about at a sports bar. Find or post funny memes, polls, GIFs, or join chats about your teams. Matthew Berry (ESPN, The Talented Mr. Roto), the face of fantasy football co-founded the app as a place for fans to chat about sports, get fantasy advice, or find sleepers for your team. Find Matthew on the app @matthewberry
Download the iPhone or Android app at fantasylifeapp.com. Also available in theApp Store and Google Play.
