How to draft a quarterback at a good value in 2017 fantasy leagues
According to both MathBox™ and the Fantasy Outliers team, these Quarterbacks could return higher value than ADP or ECR this year.
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Quarterbacks are more valuable in Standard leagues than in PPR
A lot of smart fantasy players punt on quarterback — waiting until one of the last rounds to pick up their starter. But is that always the best strategy?
The thinking typically goes like this: the point differences at quarterback are smaller than the other positions, so you’d be better off investing higher picks on harder-to-replace positions like running back and wide receiver. That seems to be a reasonable argument in PPR leagues, in general. But in Standard leagues, QB’s score the same amount and WR, RB, and TE all score significantly less than they do in PPR. So QB, as a result, becomes a more valuable position. Just look at our research on what a top 3 quarterback has netted competitive fantasy teams since 2011 in Standard leagues. That’s +32.6 points on average over the course of a 13-week fantasy regular season — more than any other position.
You might want to consider investing in a Top 3 quarterback this year — especially if you play in a Standard-scoring league
What does MathBox™ have to say about getting sneaky quarterback value in the draft?
Good question. But first, a bit about MathBox™. It consists of multiple Gradient Boosting Regressor machine learning models that help us get a better understanding of the Quarterback position. To learn more about the models, how we built them, and their projected error rates, check out this article.
Now, let’s compare MathBox™’s projections with Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). We made models to predict Points Per Opportunity (PPO) and Opportunities Per Game (OPG) separately (so you can “trust or adjust” when using them in your draft). Then, we extracted what we think each player’s approximate value will be versus the top 20 projected quarterbacks. So Russell Wilson’s +3.46 value means that he’s projected to net your team +3.46 points/week on average against the top 20 quarterbacks this year.
Roundtable discussion — Finding value at QB in Fantasy leagues
In order to get you a breadth of opinions, we’ll go roundtable across the Fantasy Outliers Team to share each of our key insights with you.
Dave Seal: Perhaps, because of the sheer volume of plays, quarterbacks have been relatively easier to predict than other position groups, The error rates for our QB projections reflect this — i.e. they’re smaller. So, generally speaking, MathBox’s QB projections feel pretty solid to me.
Russell Wilson (+3.46) is projected to be almost double the value of the next closest player. So given that his positional ECR rank is #5, it seems like you could get away with a pretty good value in your draft with him. Wilson had a rough year last year, in part, because he was injured, and I think he could be due a comeback. He runs it, too, so maybe that’s part of the reason MathBox™ projected his Points Per Opportunity (PPO) to be the highest of all quarterbacks at 0.51 PPO. His Opportunities Per Game (OPG) are pretty high, too, at 41 OPG — the highest being around 43.
For the later rounds, Matthew Stafford could be a good value grab, and Andy Dalton is kind of surprising being right at about replacement value. His QB ECR is about 16th and MathBox™ has him at #8. I’m kind of on the fence about that one.
Guys to shy away from in terms of draft value according to MathBox™ are Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Marcus Mariota. I’m actually more surprised by Cam Newton — he’s #7 in ECR and #18 according to MathBox™.
David Harbarger: Who’s even more surprising to me than Russell Wilson is Ben Roethlisberger — who MathBox™ projected as the #2 quarterback. He’s #15 in ECR by position and 124th overall. Getting the #2 QB at that spot in the draft could be Big (get it?). A lot of people have been talking about targeting Big Ben later in the draft, and MathBox™ is validating this strategy. This high projection likely has to do with his deluge of weapons available — and he tends to be pretty durable, often playing through injuries. In case you’re wondering if Big Ben is injury-prone, MathBox™ has him listed as a moderate-to-low injury risk, so I wouldn’t worry about him getting injured any more than any other quarterback.
Derrick Carr is someone to watch out for, too. MathBox™ has him at #10, a slight bump from #14 in ECR. I like him in general. He has two good receivers to throw to in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and I think that offense could be pretty good this year.
MathBox™ is not feeling Cam Newton this year . Maybe people are remembering some good ol’ Cam days, and MathBox™ is picking up on how things have evolved or are evolving in Carolina. I guess we’ll see.
Clay J. Seal: I’m really digging viewing these predictions with Opportunities per Game in mind. With that, I think Matthew Stafford being ranked at №4 isn’t too surprising. And he’s pretty in line in regard to Points Per Opportunity with the guys above him who aren’t dual threats. Stafford slid from 2015 to 2016 in both Total Season Value and Average Weekly Value, but until the last four weeks of the season, he took care of the ball really well. If he returns to that form and they let him sling the ball like they always have, things could get serious. Given that he’s going at #100 overall and MathBox™’s #4, that’s a pretty darn good value.
Chris Seal: No love here for Marcus Mariota, Dak Prescott, or Jameis Winston — three young, promising quarterbacks. Maybe it’s because our 2nd year and rookie models are less robust, due to limited sample sizes — or maybe, MathBox™ is onto something. Either way, there seem to be enough good options to target in the draft that I’m avoiding these guys.
Here comes my favorite chart that I include in all of our positional round-ups. It sums up a lot of what the guys are saying above. Basically, if I trust MathBox™ — which I do except for Blake Bortles — I’m targeting the guys on the top-left-hand portion of this graph . If they’re green, they’re above replacement, and if they’re gray they’re at replacement.
So here’s how I’m drafting quarterback this year. Russell Wilson is rated #5 in ECR. According to our research, in 10-team competitive leagues, the 5th QB is taken at about the mid-fourth round. If Wilson is available there — or especially if he slips to the 5th — I’m taking him. If not, I’m targeting Big Ben or Stafford in the 100’s — and maybe Dalton or Carr later on.
To get access to a unique draft kit that will give you a competitive advantage, go to our projections here. (desktop friendly)
Dave and Dave host a podcast, called Fantasy Outliers Podcast, where they give you weekly data-driven, human-interpreted insights. You should give it a listen.
