MathBox Tells It Like It Is — Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings based on Machine Learning

No holds barred takes on Week 11 Studs and Duds, Streamers and Busts, Minuses and Plus — Machine learning projections in PPR and Standard scoring leagues for the 2019 NFL season

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At Fantasy Outliers, we believe that machine learning combined with human expertise leads to better results than either by itself. While some of these projections may seem odd, outlandish even, most of the time, MathBox has a reason for its decisions — and beat ESPN for likely starters (also, tied Vegas in predicting game winners).

That said, the machine learning models are focused on relevant players, so projections are less accurate for benchwarmers. Also, situational things come up, which require folks like you and me to adjust some of the models’ projections every week.

These models are projecting using DraftKings PPR scoring, which is a little higher on average than ESPN PPR scoring — so keep that in mind when making comparisons between the two

Okay, let’s get to it…

Quarterback Rankings based on Machine Learning

• MathBox is high on Josh Allen, Tom Brady, and Matt Ryan this week, among others
• Carson Wentz is our cheapest guy in DraftKings at 21 projected points (256 $/pt) against the dangerous New England Patriots defense. It’s risky! (DFS Tools)

Week 11 Quarterback Ranks

Running Back — Rankings in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• MathBox is picking up on the Bengals adapted run-first strategy and is very high on Joe Mixon this week (19pts versus ESPN’s 14). He has a 41% chance of 1 or more TDs and 35% chance of 2 or more TDs. Not bad at his cost. (Betting Tools)

Week 11 Running Back ranks DraftKings PPR

Week 11 Running Back ranks ESPN Standard

Wide Receiver — Rankings in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• MathBox is seemingly always high on Julian Edelman
• This week Robert Woods is one of MathBox’s favorite sleepers

Week 11 Wide Receiver ranks DraftKings PPR

Week 11 Wide Receiver ranks ESPN Standard

Tight End — Rankings in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• MathBox has been high on Eric Ebron recently. With 12 targets last game, I can’t blame it!

Week 11 Tight End ranks DraftKings PPR

Week 11 Tight End ranks ESPN Standard scoring

Defense/Special Teams Rankings based on Machine Learning

• Defense/Special Teams projections are taking a bye week this week!

Kicker Rankings based on Machine Learning

• I’m not going to lie — I picked up Daniel Carlson in my fantasy league this week, as I think he has a good matchup at home against the Cincinnati Bengals (my hometown).

Week 11 Kicker ranks

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Performance analysis:

• Can machine learning help improve your fantasy football draft — Comparison of Fantasy Outliers’ yearly models’ 2017 fantasy football draft performance versus ESPN and Expert Consensus Rankings
• How Artificial Intelligence (AI) beat ESPN in Fantasy Football — Summary of results of Fantasy Outliers’ weekly predictive models vs. ESPN during Weeks 6–16 of the 2017 NFL regular season
• We Tied Vegas in Our First Attempt at Predicting NFL Game Winners Using Machine Learning — How Raw, Unedited Machine Learning Models With Information Known Early in the Week Tied Final Vegas Game Winner Projections and the Spread

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