MathBox +/- Week 10 Projections

Predictions by each position for Week 10 Fantasy Football in Standard and PPR Formats

You can learn more about our models and our Week 10 projections and Waiver Wire pickups by listening our weekly Fantasy Outliers podcast: iTunes, streaming. It’s a great place to get more insights on the ranks from the rest of the team.

Welcome to Fantasy Outliers’ Week 10 projections and all the glory they hold. We kind of return to normalcy with just four teams on bye compared to the six that have been gone each of the past two weeks. Kansas City and Philadelphia will especially hurt a few owners, so be on the lookout for replacement options if you field any of those players.

Here are the teams on bye and some of the players you might be missing this week:

• Baltimore Ravens: Javorius Allen, Defense/Special Teams, Justin Tucker, Benjamin Watson, Jeremy Maclin, Alex Collins
• Kansas City Chiefs: Travis Kelce, Alex Smith, Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Harrison Butker
• Oakland Raiders: Jared Cook, Michael Crabtree, Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, Marshawn Lynch
• Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, Jake Elliott, Defense/Special Teams, Alshon Jeffrey, Nelson Agholor, Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, Corey Clement

We believe MathBox combined with human expertise leads to better decisions than either by itself.

The analysis below is based off of MathBox’s raw projections available as a Google sheet here. Bookmark it now. The projections are updated every week.

Quarterback Notes

• The top five spots are pretty predictable, except for Cam Newton at No. 4. Everyone’s still trying to figure out if the 2015 MVP was the real Cam or just an anomaly. He’s returning to his role as a runner in the past few weeks, which has definitely helped less-than-stellar passing numbers in the fantasy realm. If he can keep turnovers down, there’s no reason he can’t play to this projection.
• We’ve previously talked about Jared Goff, Eli Manning and even Josh McCown as viable waiver wire pickups for QBs, but Blake Bortles coming it projected at No. 9 this week turned our eyes. He’s got two outings in a row with a touchdown and no picks. The Jacksonville offense seems to be finding a groove, and getting Leonard Fournette back from injury should definitely help, as Bortles seems to be a guy who does better the less you ask of him. He’s widely available and worth a spot start.
• Andy Dalton did exactly what you’d expect against Jacksonville, the toughest defense in fantasy against quarterbacks in Week 9 — he laid an egg. He’s got a more favorable matchup this week, but it’s not enough to get over that terrible offensive line play. They can’t pass, or even run to help open up the pass. Avoid Dalton this week, and frankly the rest of the season unless they’re playing Cleveland.
• Keep an eye out for Marcus Mariota against the Bengals this week. He’s projected No. 11, but Cincinnati’s defense has not been up to par the past few weeks (negative points in two of its past three) and Mariota could be another beneficiary.

Runningback Notes

• It’s tough to know what to make of C.J. Anderson these days. His ceiling and floor seem to just keep dropping. MathBox has him projected No. 12 in standard, but you just don’t know what you’re going to get. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2, and their offense is another one that seems to be falling apart. His only saving grace this week is that New England is one of the worst teams against fantasy running backs this season. Start him, preferably in the flex, just don’t expect much.
• Christian McCaffrey comes in at No. 14 in standard and No. 9 in PPR. He got to play a real running back last week, notching season highs in both carries (15) and yards (66) and led the team in carries. His projected points per opportunity is one of the highest on this list and definitely the highest of anyone with his volume of touches. If Carolina keeps running him and he doesn’t take a hit in receiving opportunities, he could start blowing up in the coming weeks.
• Aaron Jones owners must have been disappointed after he netted 11 total yards as the Packers were throttled by the Lions. Consensus is that he’ll return to a startable status this week against Chicago. MathBox agrees –he’s projected No. 10 in standard and No. 14 in PPR. He’ll surely get more than five carries which should yield results that will get him closer to his typical double-digit point output.

Wide Receiver Notes

• MathBox seems to have no qualms with DeAndre Hopkins against a tough Rams defense, even with Tom Savage at QB. He had six catches for 86 yards and a touchdown on 16 targets last week, so that’s at least promising. We’re rolling with this start.
• T.Y. Hilton coming in at Nos. 7 and 6 in standard and PPR, respectively. He has that boom or bust effect that Vincent Jackson used to have with Tampa Bay a few years back, and last week was his biggest boom of the season (175 yards, two touchdowns). Pittsburgh’s defense ranks second against wide receivers according to our metrics, and MathBox isn’t too high on Brissett at QB this week, so we’re taking this with a big grain of salt.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster comes in around No. 30 in both formats. He was on bye after that breakout 193 yards/one touchdown game in Week 8. With Antonio Brown ranked safely at the top of both formats, MathBox basically thinks that Smith-Schuster won’t take away from Brown again. Ten spots ahead of Martavis Bryant, it seems like he’s got the second receiver spot, though. Against Indianapolis, who can’t seem to do much of anything, Smith-Schuster is a decent flex start. His ownership is around 67 percent, so it’s probably worth a check to see if you can pick him up.
• Marvin Jones now has three really good outings in a row, including last week’s 107 yard/two touchdown peformance, but he comes in around No. 20 in these rankings. Matthew Stafford looks pretty good and seems to be connecting with Jones downfield more often, but MathBox is still high on teammate Golden Tate, who is ranked No. 9/10 in standard/PPR. Not that Tate hasn’t been doing well in his own right. There’s room for two in this offense right now, but the trend is Jones, at the moment. Be confident in that he’ll get you WR2 value at the very least.

Tight End Notes

• MathBox must not be crazy about Evan Engram’s matchup against San Francisco, third against TEs, to ONLY have him at Nos. 10/8 in standard/PPR. However, we’re crazy about him on the human side. The 49ers have been especially vulnerable to that position in the past month. Engram’s worst performance in his past three games is 60 yards and a score on six receptions. Not bad.
• Vernon Davis yet again served as a fine replacement for the injured Jordan Reed, but also dinged his hand a bit against Seattle. Both are listed as questionable, so we really just have to wait and see on this. Davis really has been the more reliable of the two this year. Either one is a confident start in either format if only one plays.

Good luck managing your way through this challenging week. Also, if you want a little more commentary around our projections with insights on additional players, check out our podcast here.

Clay J. Seal and Dave Seal contributed to the insight. Chris Seal contributed to the weekly models.

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