MathBox +/- Week 13 Projections

Predictions by each position for Week 13 Fantasy Football in Standard and PPR Formats

You can learn more about our models and our Week 13 projections and Waiver Wire pickups by listening our Fantasy Outliers podcasts: iTunes, streaming. It’s a great place to get more insights on the ranks from the rest of the team.

Well, for most, it all comes down to this. Week 13 is the time that all your playoff dreams are either realized or dashed. If you’re like us, you have some teams that are solidly in, some that are solidly out… and a few where a few lineup decisions will make all the difference this week.

When you’re making these pivotal, final lineup decisions—basically trying to decide between the high-ceiling/low-floor player and the one that will net you solid if unremarkable scoring—make sure you know what kind of roster you have and how it’s performed so far this year. Do you need to take a chance to make it happen? Or do you just need a few points to push you over the edge?

Fortunately, MathBox is here and ready to take you over the top and into the playoffs this week.

We believe MathBox combined with human expertise leads to better decisions than either by itself.

The analysis below is based off of MathBox’s raw projections available as a Google sheet at projections.fantasyoutliers.com. Bookmark it now. The projections are updated every week.

Quarterback Notes

• One of the elephants in the room: MathBox’s preseason top projected quarterback and current overall leader in fantasy scoring Russell Wilson is slated as No. 10 this week for QBs. Certainly a tough matchup against Philadelphia, but Wilson has more than proven himself this year against stout defenses. Start if you’ve got him and leave it at that.
• Tyrod Taylor, poor guy. Just doesn’t seem like some of the folks running the show in Buffalo are into him. Not often you see a competent quarterback take a pay cut, get benched during a playoff push, etc. But MathBox seems to like him as he slots in sixth this week. The skeptic says MathBox favors QBs against New England maybe a little too much (Derek Carr a couple weeks ago). The optimist says other than that terrible game against New Orleans in Week 10 he’s always a decent streaming option and has upside considering his prowess running and low interception rate. Maybe not No. 6, but top 10 isn’t outrageous for Taylor this week.
• Matthew Stafford has a heck of a challenge this week against what has become a really stingy Baltimore defense, which is ranked second against QBs according to MathBox. My gut says that’s enough to give pause to starting Stafford this week if you can find a better alternative, but it’s also hard to believe he finishes outside the top 20 like MathBox projects.
• With a limited sample of very good performances in the past three weeks, I’m willing to say Ben Roethlisberger is back to what he’s been and closer to what people thought he might be. He’s the No. 12 QB in fantasy scoring this season, so a No. 9 projection seems fair on the road against Cincinnati.
• Case Keenum is still available in about half of leagues. MathBox isn’t crazy about him at No. 15 this week and No. 23 through Week 16 (to be fair, he has unideal matchups). But this week against a middle-of-the-road Atlanta defense, he should absolutely be starting unless you have another for sure QB1.

Running Back Notes

• Carlos Hyde rolling in projected as No. 4 in PPR. He’s quietly enough been a top 10 guy in PPR this year, and now we’ll see what happens with Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter in place of the injured C.J. Beathard. Either way, obvious start.
• Two touchdowns and a season-high in carries last week gave Jamaal Williams a big day and MathBox is high on him: projected 6/7 in standard/PPR. That may be a bit bullish to begin with, but if Ty Montgomery does in fact return to the fold this week he drops in value a lot.
• Austin Ekeler coming in top 10 in PPR – we were a pretty hard pass on him a few weeks ago on the waiver wire. He’s scored 26, 13 and 10 in the past three weeks. You can either see that as a downward trend from an unsustainable blip, or consistent double-digit offerings. Although Cleveland has been able to boast a pretty darn good run defense, they just got torched on the ground by one of the worst rushing offenses in Cincinnati last week. If a hot Chargers team gets ahead early, this is very possible. Proceed with caution, but there’s more to this projection than meets the eye.
• Jordan Howard is sometimes an RB1 and sometimes a non-starter. It seems to trade off week to week. He should have a fine week against one of the worst defenses against running backs in San Francisco. His carries should come back up since the game shouldn’t be so quickly out of hand like it was last week against the Eagles.

Wide Receiver Notes

• Juju Smith-Schuster and Chris Hogan in the top 10 of PPR rankings certainly are a surprise. We believe that Smith-Schuster is startable at flex, but can’t be counted on for WR1 numbers. Hogan is a definite hard pass for us—too much risk after a number of weeks missed to injury and too dependent on TDs for production when he was healthy.
• We like Robby Anderson (24) and Jamison Crowder (22) as solid WR2s after a few weeks of good performance from both. We’re looking to work them into our lineups above higher-ranked players we’ve fallen out of love with this season like Dez Bryant (12) and Demariuys Thomas (18).
• Davante Adams (9) is a top 10 PPR option after being productive while helping right the Packers Hundley-helmed offense. He’s had around 20pts each of the last 3 weeks and seems like a good bet for solid production, although MathBox does have him lower than 9 for the rest of the season.
• With 23 receptions, good for 331 yards and three touchdowns, over the past two games, it’s kind of hard to believe that Keenan Allen is 1.) projected a spot higher in standard than in PPR, and 2.) his relative value is listed so much lower than Antonio Brown’s. He’s projected top five in both formats, so it’s picking hairs at this point, but Allen has been unstoppable as of late. MathBox has the Cleveland defense against WRs ranked No. 6.

Tight End Notes

• We recommended Ricky Seals-Jones (5 in PPR) as a waiver wire pickup this week. While he’s higher than we thought he’d be in the projections, we’d definitely take a shot at him this week given his recent track record. We wouldn’t be looking to get him into lineups where you need solid production, though—Seals-Jones is definitely a moon shot and he’s made for fantasy managers trying to sneak into the playoffs with teams that need the chance at crazy upside.
• We’re looking at Charles Clay this week, too (7 in PPR). Good matchup against the Patriots and Tyrod Taylor back behind center project to make him a solid start. He’s the type of player that’s like a direct contrast to Seals-Jones—good for stable but unremarkable production.
• Hunter Henry (16 in PPR) had a great game last week and has a great matchup this week. We think he’s a great guy to get back into your lineup if you need some production that’s… ok.

Good luck managing your way through this challenging week. Also, if you want a little more commentary around our projections with insights on additional players, check out our podcast here.

David Harbarger contributed to the insight. Chris Seal contributed to the weekly models.

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