Value-based drafting for Defense/Special Teams in the 2018 Fantasy Football Season

Sleepers and Busts — According to our machine learning models and the Fantasy Outliers team, these Defense/Special Teams could return higher value than ADP and ECR in the 2018 Fantasy Football season.

Chris Seal
Sep 3, 2018 · 4 min read

Defenses are hard to predict, but if you find a good one, they can be just as valuable to your fantasy football team as any other position. In fact, in 2015, Denver’s D/ST won more points for your team than any other starter when compared to other starters at their position.


So while our dataset is pretty robust, if a lot of change has happened in the offseason (lots of free agency signings, major coaching changes, major offensive overhaul), you might want to factor that in when weighing these projections. Our dataset does not have all the data. That’s why we think combining our models’ outputs with human opinions will lead to better results than either by itself. Hence, a few (not many) of the projections below have been hand adjusted.

We will show you:

  • Weekly Value: This compares individual Points per Game projections to the average Pts/Gm projection of the top 20 projected players at a given position. It can be interpreted as average points won/lost versus position (against the top 20 players).

So without further ado, let’s get to it…


Fantasy Outliers’ Weekly Value Projections for Defense/Special Teams

Projected Weekly Points Won/Lost vs. Top 20 at Position
  • I’m not sure why, but our models might be the only ones not super high on the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year, as we have them at #17. Oh my. That said, maybe snag them if they slide back in the draft a bit.
  • Philadelphia’s defense is projected to be twice as valuable as the next guy, Detroit.
  • Speaking of Detroit, they are currently 11th in Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and #2 according to our models. Their defensive coordinator left last year to go to the Bengals, which gives me pause — but they still may be worth a pick at the tail end of your draft.
  • Buffalo isn’t even in the top 20 in ECR (#23), and our models are projecting them at #3. Might be worth a late-round flyer or a check on the waiver wire in the early weeks.

Finding Defense/Special Teams Draft Value versus Expert Consensus

Fantasy Outliers’ Weekly Value Projection vs. Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR): Top left half is where, according to our projections, you can find draft value relative to ECR
  • What about Tennessee, Green Bay, and Arizona? Tennessee’s defense finished 6th last year in terms of fantasy points scored, and Arizona’s finished 9th. Personally, I’d stay away from Green Bay’s defense with Aaron Rodgers back.
  • Being a Bengals fan so I’m biased, I like their defense’s prospects this year. Their pass rush is excellent and their new defensive coordinator is emphasizing turnovers. But if the offense can’t run the ball and scores in one-play drives, that will put a lot of pressure on them. Possibly worth a look at the waiver wires in the early weeks.

For the full experience, our 2018 Fantasy Football Season Projections are now available for free in this Glorious Google Sheet.

To stay in touch, please, join us by following us on Twitter (@fantasyoutliers) or subscribing to our weekly newsletter. We’re a small team, so let’s grow together!


Fantasy Outliers

Where machines and humans team up to win at fantasy sports

Chris Seal

Written by

Co-Founder, Lead Data Scientist at Fantasy Outliers

Fantasy Outliers

Where machines and humans team up to win at fantasy sports

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