Value-based drafting for Kickers in the 2018 Fantasy Football Season

According to our machine learning models and the Fantasy Outliers team, these Kickers could return higher value than ADP and ECR in the 2018 Fantasy Football season.

Chris Seal
Sep 3, 2018 · 4 min read

Kickers. Can’t live with ’em; can’t live without ’em. A good kicker can help you have a better fantasy football team without you even realizing it. A bad kicker can take away some of the benefit of drafting a Todd Gurley. On top of that, a good kicker can be one of the better value finds on your team — often taken in the last round or two.


But can you predict them? We will try. Every year, we make predictions for: Points per Opportunity, Opportunities per Game, and Games Played. From these, other metrics like the ones we’ll discuss below can be derived. Our dataset includes data from a wide range of sources, but it does not have all the data. That’s why we think combining our models’ outputs with human opinions will lead to better results than either by itself. Hence, a few (not many) of the projections below have been hand adjusted.

For kickers, we will show you:

  • Weekly Value: This compares individual Points per Game projections to the average Pts/Gm projection of the top 20 projected players at a given position. It can be interpreted as average points won/lost versus position (against the top 20 players).

So without further ado, let’s get to it…


Fantasy Outliers’ Weekly Value Projections for Kicker

Projected Weekly Points Won/Lost vs. Top 20 at Position
  • Caleb Sturgis is projected to be the 3rd best kicker this year and his expert consensus was #31 a week ago. He has apparently won the job over Roberto Aguayo. He could be a great value find in tail end of your draft
  • Stephen Gostkowski has been a top three kicker in 4 of 5 of the last seasons if not longer. But you’ll have to pay the price for the name and reduced risk.
  • You could also probably grab Mike Nugent (Oak) or Kai Forbath (Min) for a replacement level (or better) kicker in the last round.

Finding Kicker Draft Value versus Expert Consensus

Fantasy Outliers’ Weekly Value Projection vs. Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR): Top left half is where, according to our projections, you can find draft value relative to ECR
  • I don’t think you can go wrong with Gostkowski, Bryant, Butker, or Elliot. To me, it’s worth a before-last-round pick to get a starting kicker
  • Justin Tucker is not worth a high draft pick, according to our models. So grab him if he slides a bit. That said, I’ve heard people say they’re high on Baltimore’s offense this year, so it’s possible he’s worth it — but not according to our models.

For the full experience, our 2018 Fantasy Football Season Projections are now available for free in this Glorious Google Sheet.


To stay in touch, please, join us by following us on Twitter (@fantasyoutliers) or subscribing to our weekly newsletter. We’re a small team, so let’s grow together!


Fantasy Outliers

Where machines and humans team up to win at fantasy sports

Chris Seal

Written by

Co-Founder, Lead Data Scientist at Fantasy Outliers

Fantasy Outliers

Where machines and humans team up to win at fantasy sports

Welcome to a place where words matter. On Medium, smart voices and original ideas take center stage - with no ads in sight. Watch
Follow all the topics you care about, and we’ll deliver the best stories for you to your homepage and inbox. Explore
Get unlimited access to the best stories on Medium — and support writers while you’re at it. Just $5/month. Upgrade