Value-based drafting for Wide Receiver in Standard and PPR in the 2018 Fantasy Football Season

According to our machine learning models and the Fantasy Outliers team, these Wide Receivers could return higher value than ADP and ECR in the 2018 Fantasy Football season.

Chris Seal
Sep 3, 2018 · 5 min read

Last year, our raw yearly projections for wide receivers in PPR leagues were better than ESPN’s 57% of the time and were directionally accurate 64% of the time. And you have to think the results were better in practice after us humans provide more situational insight — even if it’s just mediocre.

Towards the top of the draft, our value-based projections were high — and more accurate than Expert Consensus Rankings — on Larry Fitzgerald, Golden Tate, and Demaryius Thomas. But to be fair, we whiffed on TY Hilton and Terrelle Pryor.


Every year, we make predictions for: Points per Opportunity, Opportunities per Game, and Games Played. From these, other metrics like the ones we’ll discuss below can be derived. Our dataset includes data from a wide range of sources, but it does not have all the data. That’s why we think combining our models’ outputs with human opinions will lead to better results than either by itself. Hence, a few (not many) of the projections below have been hand adjusted.

We will show you:

  • Weekly Value: This compares individual Points per Game projections to the average Pts/Gm projection of the top 20 projected players at a given position. It can be interpreted as average points won/lost versus position (against the top 20 players).
  • Total Points: This is simply our Points Per Game projection multiplied by our Games Played projection. Last year, we predicted 27% of the variance in games played (not bad), and our total points projection beat ESPN’s pretty handily.

So without further ado, let’s get to it…


This Average Weekly Value chart shows how many points our models think a player is going to win/lose your team against the top 20 starters at wide receiver.

Projected Weekly Points Won/Lost vs. Top 20 at Position — PPR (left) and Standard (right)
  • The list in standard leagues is loaded with potential value finds with Marvin Jones, Jarvis Landry, Josh Gordon, Adam Thielen, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Golden Tate all ranked 8 or more spots higher than Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). Personally, I’m a little hesitant about Josh Gordon, since he’s such an anomaly, but you never know.
  • Also, our models are low on Doug Baldwin, ranking him at #31 versus ECR #12. Coincidentally, they are also low on Russell Wilson this year.

These projections are Points/Game * Games Played, so they take into account injury risk.

Projected Total Points Scored (Points per Game * Games Played) — PPR (left) and Standard (right)
  • Apparently our models think Tyreek Hill is an injury risk, projecting just 12.4 games played this year, whereas most receivers are around 14–14.5.

Top 20 ECR rankings on the y-axis and corresponding Fantasy Outliers Weekly Value rankings on the x-axis. Anyone in the top left of the graph is a potential value find. Green means they have a projected positive value versus top 20 players at their position. Rankings are for PPR scoring. (For you designers out there, yes, I know this graph is messy.)

Fantasy Outliers’ Weekly Value Projection vs. Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR): Top left half is where, according to our projections, you can find draft value relative to ECR
  • Our models are low on DeAndre Hopkins this year. Regression to the mean is a bitch. That said, it’s totally possible he repeats with a healthy QB and Will Fuller. Personally, I’m slightly higher on him than our models are.
  • Mike Evans could be a good value pick at ~10 receivers in. The other guys, I already mentioned.
  • This isn’t draft related, but look at how closely ECR and our models’ predictions align for the most part. Pretty interesting (to me at least)!

This is a screenshot from our interactive tool, built by Ray Harris.

Fantasy Outliers’ Wide Receiver PPR rankings

For the full experience, our 2018 Fantasy Football Season Projections are now available for free in this Glorious Google Sheet.

To stay in touch, please, join us by following us on Twitter (@fantasyoutliers) or subscribing to our weekly newsletter. We’re a small team, so let’s grow together!


Fantasy Outliers

Where machines and humans team up to win at fantasy sports

Chris Seal

Written by

Co-Founder, Lead Data Scientist at Fantasy Outliers

Fantasy Outliers

Where machines and humans team up to win at fantasy sports

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