Waiver-Wire-a-Week-Ahead Advice for Fantasy Football Week 10 based on Machine Learning

Fantasy Outliers’ takes on fantasy football rostering decisions in PPR and Standard scoring leagues for the upcoming week through the rest of the season

Chris Seal

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Fantasy Outliers

5 min readNov 7, 2018

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To dig into our raw, unadjusted projections for Week 10 through the remainder of the 2018 NFL season, go to our Glorious Google Sheet. For daily updates, follow us on twitter.

Our Waiver Wire Opportunity metric crosses Next-4-Week point projections against percent ownership in ESPN leagues, and normalizes within position.

We’ve found this metric to be helpful so far this year. While many people have already had their main waiver wire selections this week, a lot of these players may still be available — or simply may be folks to keep an eye on going forward.

These selections aren’t necessarily ‘must pickups’, but rather, players who have an imbalance in Next-4-Week projections relative to percent ownership — even if they are highly owned or have relatively low point projections. So use your best judgment.

If you’re looking for start sit advice, go here instead.

Quarterback — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

Marcus Mariota could be a good streaming option this week at home versus the Patriots, and at 71.8 points in the next four weeks, he may give you replacement level performance, if you are desperate
Check to see if Russell Wilson is still available in your league

Week 10 raw, unedited QB waiver wire opportunity, based on machine learning

Running Back — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

Giovani Bernard is our top pickup this week at 60 points in the next 4 weeks, coming off an injury to a team who just lost their top receiver in AJ Green and 33% ownership. Let’s hope he’s healthy.
Theo Riddick could be a good pickup in PPR leagues, especially with Ameer Abdullah’s release
Mike Davis could be a good short-term pickup with Chris Carson’s injury

Week 10 raw, unedited RB waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Wide Receiver — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

MathBox has been high on Martavis Bryant for the past few weeks, but hasn’t done much. Perhaps, Oakland is underutilizing him. I would ignore this
Some other possible value finds: Quincy Enuwa, David Moore, Christian Kirk, and Trequon Smith

Week 10 raw, unedited WR waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Tight End — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

Jack Doyle coming back from an injury could be a solid pickup. He was doing great in targets and good in points before he was injured early on.
Check to see if Evan Engram is available in your league, coming in at 42.6 points in the next four weeks in PPR and 64% ownership
Vance McDonald (11.4 points this week at 52% ownership) and Vernon Davis (9.7 at 3.6% ownership) could be other good value finds

Week 9 raw, unedited TE waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Defense/Special Teams — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

MathBox is high on the Arizona Cardinals’ defense this week versus KC, which I don’t buy, but they do play the Oakland Raiders next week making them a worthy week-ahead pickup
MathBox has been low relative to pundits on Green Bay’s offense this year. The Seattle Seahawks play them in week 11 for a projected 8.7 points. It’s something to consider.

Week 10 raw, unedited D/ST waiver wire opportunity, based on machine learning

Kicker — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

Randy Bullock could be a great pickup this week at home versus New Orleans, and with AJ Green injured, it’s possible the Bengals will have to settle for field goals more often

Week 10 raw, unedited K waiver wire opportunity, based on machine learning

To dig into our raw, unadjusted projections for Week 10 through the remainder of the 2018 NFL season, go to our Glorious Google Sheet.

Performance analysis:

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