Waiver-Wire-a-Week-Ahead Advice for Fantasy Football Week 3 based on Machine Learning

Fantasy Outliers’ takes on fantasy football rostering decisions in PPR and Standard scoring leagues for the upcoming week through the rest of the season for the NFL 2019 season

To dig into our full projections for PPR, Standard, and Half-PPR leagues and the rest of our projections for the 2019 NFL season, go to our product page on gumroad.com. For daily updates, follow us on twitter.

Our Waiver Wire Opportunity metric crosses Next-4-Week point projections against percent ownership in ESPN leagues, and normalizes within position.

We’ve found this metric to be helpful last year. Offhand, we predicted the New Orleans Saints defense would go on a tear weeks ahead of when the analysts started mentioning it (i.e. too late). While many people have already had their main waiver wire selections this week, a lot of these players may still be available — or simply may be folks to keep an eye on going forward.

These selections aren’t necessarily ‘must pickups’, but rather, players who have an imbalance in Next-4-Week projections relative to percent ownership — even if they are highly owned or have relatively low point projections. So use your best judgment.

Note that standard scoring uses ESPN standard scoring and PPR uses Draft Kings scoring.

If you’re looking for our weekly rankings, go here instead.

Quarterback — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

• Jameis Winston has stuggled so far, but has two potentially high scoring games coming up against the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints — not to mention some forgiving defenses (so far) in the New York Giants and the Saints
• MathBox had Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, and Josh Allen all as value draft picks relative to ADP prior to the season

Week 2 and 3 Quarterback Waiver Wire Opportunity (unedited), based on Machine Learning

Running Back — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• I just picked up Rex Burkhead in my PPR league, but he’s also available in Standard leagues
• Adrian Peterson will be filling in for Derrius Guice during his injury and may provide some value there

Weeks2 and 3 raw, unedited RB waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Wide Receiver — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• KeeSean Johnson is on an under-the-radar team in the Arizona Cardinals and could provide a worthy bench spot

Weeks 2 and 3 raw, unedited WR waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Tight End — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• Trey Burton, Eric Ebron, and Mark Andrew are all guys I’d consider.

Week 2 and 3 raw, unedited TE waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Defense/Special Teams — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

• The Washington Redskins D/ST are projected to have a good Week 4 against the Giants, so they could be a worthy bye-week fill-in
• The Seattle Seahawks D/ST are projected to have a good three-week stretch in weeks 4–6 against the Cardinals, Rams, and Browns, respectively

Weeks 2 and 3 raw, unedited D/ST waiver wire opportunity, based on machine learning

Kicker — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

• Coming soon

If you’re looking for our weekly rankings and other products, go here instead. For daily updates, follow us on twitter.

Performance Analysis

• Can machine learning help improve your fantasy football draft — Comparison of Fantasy Outliers’ yearly models’ 2017 fantasy football draft performance versus ESPN and Expert Consensus Rankings
• How Artificial Intelligence (AI) beat ESPN in Fantasy Football — Summary of results of Fantasy Outliers’ weekly predictive models vs. ESPN during Weeks 6–16 of the 2017 NFL regular season
• We Tied Vegas in Our First Attempt at Predicting NFL Game Winners Using Machine Learning — How Raw, Unedited Machine Learning Models With Information Known Early in the Week Tied Final Vegas Game Winner Projections and the Spread
• Hey everyone, we beat ESPN — Part 1. Background and Methodology — Comparison of fantasy football weekly model performance of Fantasy Outliers vs. ESPN during Weeks 6–16 of the 2017 NFL season for Standard and PPR scoring formats
• Hey everyone, we beat ESPN — Part 2. Results — Comparison of fantasy football weekly model performance of Fantasy Outliers vs. ESPN during Weeks 6–16 of the 2017 NFL season for Standard and PPR scoring formats

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