Waiver-Wire-a-Week-Ahead Advice for Fantasy Football Week 4 based on Machine Learning

Fantasy Outliers’ takes on fantasy football rostering decisions in PPR and Standard scoring leagues for the upcoming week through the rest of the season for the NFL 2019 season

Chris Seal

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Fantasy Outliers

5 min readSep 20, 2019

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To dig into our full projections for PPR, Standard, and Half-PPR leagues and the rest of our projections for the 2019 NFL season, go to our product page on gumroad.com. For daily updates, follow us on twitter.

Our Waiver Wire Opportunity metric crosses Next-4-Week point projections against percent ownership in ESPN leagues, and normalizes within position.

We’ve found this metric to be helpful last year. Offhand, we predicted the New Orleans Saints defense would go on a tear weeks ahead of when the analysts started mentioning it (i.e. too late). While many people have already had their main waiver wire selections this week, a lot of these players may still be available — or simply may be folks to keep an eye on going forward.

These selections aren’t necessarily ‘must pickups’, but rather, players who have an imbalance in Next-4-Week projections relative to percent ownership — even if they are highly owned or have relatively low point projections. So use your best judgment.

Note that standard scoring uses ESPN standard scoring and PPR uses Draft Kings scoring.

If you’re looking for our weekly rankings, go here instead.

Quarterback — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

Jameis Winston has been struggling of late, but has a good matchup this week against the New York Giants and in Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints
Philip Rivers and Jared Goff are well known guys at suboptimal ownership percentages (71% and 86%, respectively). Rivers is projected at 4 straight 20+-yard games.

Week 2 and 3 Quarterback Waiver Wire Opportunity (unedited), based on Machine Learning

Running Back — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

Rex Burkhead was on our list last week. He’s a good flex play if you’re desperate, and doubles as a semi-handcuff if one of the other guys gets hurt.
Chris Thompson fills a similar role and will get you some points in PPR if you need a guy

Weeks 2 and 3 raw, unedited RB waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Wide Receiver — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

MathBox is in love with Mohamed Sanu. Probably an overstep, but still a worthy guy to roster for a Julio Jones sidekick.
Nelson Agholor could be a good pickup, especially if Alshon Jeffrey stays out.

Weeks 2 and 3 raw, unedited WR waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Tight End — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

Tyler Eifert was a TD monster in the Ice Ages when he was healthy a couple years ago. A worthy add if you need a backup TE.

Week 2 and 3 raw, unedited TE waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Defense/Special Teams — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

Coming soon

Kicker — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

I love this section. Get some sneaky points, ya’ll!

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